Leica 5/10 Prediction

[glenerrolrd]

Kaufmann indicated in one of his interviews that they would be using an all at once conversion strategy and compared it to the Munich Airport conversion (shut down old and start new on the same day). This is the least expensive approach to conversion ..if as you say they believe they can pull it off.

Two big constraints for Leica . One is the all new equipment with significantly higher capacity and two is the historical bias to increase the number of technicians gradually . The same technicians in short supply are required to test and learn the new processes and also train additional new technicians . So a piece of the production capacity is lost to the conversion. This capacity loss will occur primarily in the first quarter of 2013.

Not all Leica Stores are company owned (like Apple) . There will be a gradual transition of product allocations to favor the company stores and the capacity constraints should be overcome in 2013. I do see some dragging of the feet on getting the new stores operational and this may be to avoid the empty shelf problem .

The pricing on the M9P will depend on whether its a limited edition or a full commitment to a monochrome version. I can only guess that they will go will limited edition pricing because they can . Then the m10 could be offered in two versions .

It would be out of character for Leica to introduce a lower priced version in order to increase demand . This would just create a surge beyond their capacity . Better an over priced but unique object of desire . They will get a lot of press and forum coverage due to the unique aspects of a monochrome product .

IMHO this strategy seems to hang together ....but I am guessing .

 

[250swb]

The only camera Leica need to release this year is the EVIL system. Without that the company can't move forward. So I hope it isn't a B&W only M9, or even an M10. For sure they haven't yet exhausted special edition possibilities for the M9, but even a B&W version is only window dressing, and they are still selling plenty of regular M9's anyway.

Steve

 

[Paratom]

I am totally confused what will be announced...kind of strange how much I am interested in such announcements even though the cameras I have do work quite well for me.

Isnt it funny - in my case it is not so much: I need this feature, I need more resolution or I need different lenses. The teqhnical eqipment doesnt feel limiting at all right now.
It is more like: Lets see what they announce, and once it is announce slowly the feeling is growing that one urgently needs (or wants it)

 

[glenerrolrd]

Probably impossible to keep this straight ..but the post is just my prediction based on some pretty decent facts . Right now Leica isn t concerned about selling more ..they can t make the lenses that are on order nor can they properly service their dealers ...old and new. I know for example that Leica can does not plan to increase lens production until they get into the new plant . So why would they introduce anything that depends on lens production for its success.

They can however divert part of their existing M9 product capacity to make a monochrome version . Since this would undoubtably go to current M users it would not add substantially to the lens demand .

They could release an S3 but this seems unlikely ..they are sitting on a significant backlog for CS lenses . I guess you could argue that they will have significant S lenses taken in trade but this seems small volume .

You could also guess that the volume of small sensor sales has dropped off to the point that its a financial concern ..so they need the x1 refresh .

The monochrome M9 makes the most sense because they seem to be able to do it and it fits with other existing strategies .

Its still a guess at this point.

 

[JohnW]

...A black and white only M9 like you've described with a sensor/processor specifically tuned to maximize black and white captures would definitely have me interested....

One man's maximize is another man's minimize. The ability to render gray tones digitally using color channels is revolutionary, in my view. Do we want a manufacturer to map those tones for us? Or go back to using colored filters?

Would it not be better for Leica to release a BW conversion preset for LR/PS? Firmware, software, what's the net difference?

I must be missing something, because I sure don't get the appeal of a BW-only sensor. Even for a niche company this seems like an uber-niche product.

John

 

[jonoslack]

One man's maximize is another man's minimize. The ability to render gray tones digitally using color channels is revolutionary, in my view. Do we want a manufacturer to map those tones for us? Or go back to using colored filters?

Would it not be better for Leica to release a BW conversion preset for LR/PS? Firmware, software, what's the net difference?

I must be missing something, because I sure don't get the appeal of a BW-only sensor. Even for a niche company this seems like an uber-niche product.

John

Hi John
I quite agree with you about converting on the colour channels - it would, indeed, be a pain to have to use filters all the time. I like my big dark skies with white puffy clouds converted on the red channel

But, for people and street that's not so significant, whereas improved resolution and improved high ISO resulting from removing the bayer filter might be very significant.

Added to which, there's no need to do the B&W conversion (I know, I know, it's not a big deal in Lightroom or Aperture).

So, whilst I agree that it would be a niche product, I'd have said there would be quite a lot of people interested.

all the best

PS - I really like your websites.

 

[monza]

What confuses me is the product announcement of May 10 being published in March...based on past history, many people therefore assumed "M10 on May 10." Whether or not this is correct, it completely killed dealer sales of new M9s, and now there are many used ones on the market, with the prices dropping daily. This is not the way to service a dealer channel.

As a result, dealers that had M9s and M9Ps in stock are now dumping them (many via the tactic you mentioned previously, listing new cameras as "used with under 5 actuations" which is an ethical discussion in and of itself.)

Although the Apple rumor mill is always churning, you'd never see them make an official announcement of a product launch two months in advance...

 

[glenerrolrd]

Keep in mind that Leica s strategies are evolving as they move toward the new facilities. They have done a 360 degree change since Steve Lee was president and the M8 started the change to digital in a meaningful way . They took on Blackstone as a investor and I am sure they have outside help on their overall business strategy .

I believe that following the Paris event with Magnum they are continuing down a path of unique niche products for “serious photographers” . Berlin is nicely timed for another special edition run that can create significant interest and some short term boast in profit .

As to the need or market viability ...who knows ..but my bet will be that they will sell all they decide to make. And we still have no “official word” from Leica just speculation.

 

[monza]

If I were a shareholder, I would want them to make all that they could sell, rather than sell all they decide to make I assume this is no different for Blackstone.

 

[jonoslack]

If I were a shareholder, I would want them to make all that they could sell, rather than sell all they decide to make I assume this is no different for Blackstone.

Hi Robert
Yes indeed - but you don't want to make more than you can sell, because if you do, then secondhand prices will drop, and skinflints like me would think twice about spending large amounts of money on lenses which will drop in value.

all the best

 

[monza]

Yes. Always make one less than the market demands.

 

[JohnW]

Hi Jono,

Yes, I see your point and agree. It would be a unique and special camera.

But I shoot street and almost always adjust some tone a little--usually yellow/green of foliage and red/orange of skin. I'm pretty sure for me the trade-off would not be worth any potential IQ improvements. Plus, I'd miss all that channel fiddling.

Thanks for the compliment on the sites.

John

Hi John
I quite agree with you about converting on the colour channels - it would, indeed, be a pain to have to use filters all the time. I like my big dark skies with white puffy clouds converted on the red channel

But, for people and street that's not so significant, whereas improved resolution and improved high ISO resulting from removing the bayer filter might be very significant.

Added to which, there's no need to do the B&W conversion (I know, I know, it's not a big deal in Lightroom or Aperture).

So, whilst I agree that it would be a niche product, I'd have said there would be quite a lot of people interested.

all the best

PS - I really like your websites.

 

[KeithL]

Please, let the 5/10 announcement be a B&W camera, it'll save me a small fortune that I can spend elsewhere.

 

[250swb]

It would be a fine line that Leica are drawing between a unique luxury product against a product aimed at people so inept that they can't use Lightroom to convert a colour image into B&W. There must be more to it than that, mustn't there? Maybe it will have a film advance lever to cock the shutter, that would be cool.

Steve

 

[glenerrolrd]

If I were a shareholder, I would want them to make all that they could sell, rather than sell all they decide to make I assume this is no different for Blackstone.

Capacity is essentially fixed by two decisions (1)new factory will open in 2013(and we don t want to expand the old factory) and (2) Leica does t want to outsource production of any core products . So you can make say 1000 M s per month ....but you can sell more than that . Therefore you look at the product contribution to profit and balance the mix to make as much as you can without screwing up the long term .