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Leica 5/10 Prediction

glenerrolrd

Workshop Member
As I watch the selling of M9 s and now s2 bodies in anticipation ...thought it might be worth putting my forecast out for 5/10 in Berlin.

The product with be a special edition Black and white M9 . It will be sold in a kit and will include a new 50/2 asph summicron. The new camera will incorporate some of the future M10 features (maybe viewfinder, maestro mini processor ,battery, new cards etc) . The key feature though will be a sensor/processor thats turned specifically for Black and White . It will cost about $15K or more in a kit and leica will produce a few thousand.

Ok now the logic .....

1. Leica can internally not produce any more lenses per month before the new factory opens . Because the start up strategy for the new factory is to close the old and bring up the new on the same day (this is what we used to call the big bang strategy) ....there will be significant drop in lens capacity in the first quarter of 2013 .

2. M capacity is fixed at about 1000 per month . Dealers are reporting lost sales due to lack of availability of lenses and have you seen the used as new sales of the M9P from the dealers . Plus new cameras like the Fuji x pro 1 and new 7 and now the Nikon s are stripping many of the new Leica buyers . So go back to the established base .....M9/M8 owners that want the newest . Most buyers of a black and white M9 would have their lenses . This allows the production capacity to be used for a possibly higher priced unit (or maybe higher margin) .

3. Leica is moving hard to a new distribution and retail strategy that is based on the LEICA STORE . The key to the Leica Store is to create traffic that can experience the products (like the Apple Store to some extent). Leica stores will have small galleries and some will be able to handle some small group instruction. Think of the special events you could have with the MAGNUM photographers and the link into the Leica Akademie . This is a great time to build the network of stores ..almost one at a time with grand openings etc.

4. The Portugal factory will (again)play a key part in Leica s production strategy but its not ready . My guess is that Leica will produce an EVF camera made from many outsourced components . Assembled in Portugal and tested in Solms . This will be a world sourcing approach with significant outside content. Not sure if they will try to make the lenses for the LEVIL here .

This would allow Leica to make a big splash .....especially if the M/BW has best in class IQ . I can see 3 Magnum greats on the stage telling about the new camera in Berlin. The marketing guys would have a field day with special events based on classic BW photography and it would draw significant crowds to the Leica Stores . The first book from Leica publishing would be taken with the M/BW by Magnum photographers in Berlin.

Does this make sense ? Stop ditching your M9 s and S2 s nothing until Photokina and no availability until this time next year .
 

glenerrolrd

Workshop Member
Never sure if the rumors are just circular . This one started on Leica Rumors about a month ago. Its a distinct possibility but I believe its unlikely . My understanding is that to use the Dalsa chip set Leica will have to redo the camera processor and firmware . The driving force to an early introduction of the M10 would be the need to change the sensor from the existing Kodak model . If Leica can t get the existing sensors to maintain production levels this of course could be a reason to rush yet another M to market .

I am not throwing out a rumor ....I am making a prediction based on a collection of what I believe are facts . Leica surprised me with the M9 and I would be happy with an M10 and any improvements . This would be consistent with the dealers dumping their M9P s .
 

ramosa

Member
15k seems like a lot even in Leicaland. The new Cron asph will likely cost--what?--$3000 or a bit more. That would mean the b&w M9 would cost almost $12k?! Anyway, I hope Leica also announces a "normal" M10 for the fall ...
 
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Vivek

Guest
I think the price is right if it is a true monochrome camera. There isn't any in this format for any price.
 

glenerrolrd

Workshop Member
My post is just a prediction based on known facts and experience in developing business strategies . When a business is capacity limited they need to make good choices on what to produce . Selling any new camera that requires lenses made in Solms or Wetzler before the new factory is up and running seems inappropriate .

Plenty of unknowns .

1. Does Leica have adequate supply of M9 sensors to keep making them until after Photokina ?

2. How far along are they on the design and manufacturing of the EVF camera ? This one requires a partnership and probably the Portugal factory to pull off.

3. Does Leica feel any need to introduce an S3 with a 60-70MP sensor ? This is low volume and could be done .

4.Why would Leica introduce product so far before Photokina ?

I don t know ..just making educated guesses based on Leica s viewpoint verse what I want .
 

atanabe

Member
Roger,
Interesting prediction on the limited edition BW camera. This would be easy to pull off using the existing body shell of the M9 with modifications to the circuitry and sensor carrier. As far as price, I agree that it could be up there, Leica is not shy when it comes to that.

BTW on Leica Rumors they had a write up of a shortage of spare sensors for the M9 when coming in for repair. In one case, the camera was new enough that they just sent a new one to the customer.

As always, you know when a new camera from Leica is coming out when you see the special editions surface, with the M8 it was the white and safari editions. For now I do not feel compelled to dump my M9 I have learned the limitations and love the simplicity. I don't think a single purposed camera is what I want or need nor do I think adding features that I will not use such as live view.

-Al
 

glenerrolrd

Workshop Member
My prediction was based on the Leica Rumor post from last month ...but today he seems to be confirming it as well as no M10 until Photokina.

A B&W M9 can create some real buzz even if its not a good fit for most M users . If the IQ and high ISO performance is worth talking about ....it will be different than the cosmetics often found in limited editions. A limited edition would allow Leica to test the demand for a B&W only body .

But I was just developing a hypothesis around what Leica will introduce and why.
 

atanabe

Member
I don't know if it will be a test of the demand for a BW only camera. Like the Titan, it will only sit on collectors shelves if the price is too high and not be used. To really test demand they would have to set a true market price. Leica, unlike other brands tends to gather more dust on shelves than images. Those with deep pockets buy up the special editions for their collections and never take a shot.

The best test of viability would be to offer an upgrade of the existing sensor to a B&W only solution or you can buy one off the shelf. Either way it will give the body production line something to do as their lens counterparts work their @$$3$ off
 

Hosermage

Active member
that's a great idea :D let people trade in their color sensors for BW, and then use those traded-in sensors to help with the repair sensor shortage!
 

Brian S

New member
A few weeks to go. Given how many Digital Leica images are converted to monochrome, I would expect it to be popular. If it has a removable IR absorbing filter, the scientific market would be very interested.
 
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Vivek

Guest
A few weeks to go. Given how many Digital Leica images are converted to monochrome, I would expect it to be popular. If it has a removable IR absorbing filter, the scientific market would be very interested.
Brian, Then it has to have live view possibility to deal with focus shifts (real big unlike the regular Summilux or C-Sonnar variations!). This is what forced me to let go of the digital RF (with the Epson R-D1s) and look for alternates.

With the current live view technology and the ability to "see" in Infrared or even UV in real time, it is simply fabulous.:)
 

glenerrolrd

Workshop Member
Of course no one knows how Leica makes decisions ....but limited editions that lead to market viable products is a decent strategy .

Thinking like the manager of production. I have capacity for say 1000 M bodies per month. I don t want to try to increase this much until the new plant is ready . I can produce say 500 M9P and 500 M9M per month May/June/July . They close the plant in August and make the first batch of the M10 starting in September . Thats a limited edition run of 1500-2000 M9M . If they charge a limited edition premium and include the new 50 sum micron asph , they can increase the value of the M body production by say 30-40% and maybe double the profit margins.

It also eliminates the build up of M9P s just before the M10 and provides the Leica Stores with stuff that will sell.
 

Brian S

New member
Currently, When I use a full-spectrum camera, I use all Apochromatic lenses. Nikkor ED glass, or a Pentax 85/4.5 Ultra-Achromat.

The older Summicrons are color corrected to the point that the IR focus shift is within the F2 DOF marks. Stopping down to F4 with many of the Leica lenses is good enough. Even the old 5cm F1.5 Summarit is good to go at F2.

The RF optical viewfinder is fine for most purposes when used with a well-corrected lens.
 
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Vivek

Guest
Brain, I will PM as it will become too OT. I am quite well equipped to do imaging from far UV to far IR. Still a lot of impediments, especially wrt to focus shift.
 
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Vivek

Guest
Of course no one knows how Leica makes decisions ....but limited editions that lead to market viable products is a decent strategy .

Thinking like the manager of production. I have capacity for say 1000 M bodies per month. I don t want to try to increase this much until the new plant is ready . I can produce say 500 M9P and 500 M9M per month May/June/July . They close the plant in August and make the first batch of the M10 starting in September . Thats a limited edition run of 1500-2000 M9M . If they charge a limited edition premium and include the new 50 sum micron asph , they can increase the value of the M body production by say 30-40% and maybe double the profit margins.

It also eliminates the build up of M9P s just before the M10 and provides the Leica Stores with stuff that will sell.
Interesting line of thought, Roger.
 

KurtKamka

Subscriber Member
Very interesting thoughts, Roger. Forget an M10 with all of the advanced electronic doodads like video and live view to impress the gear heads. A black and white only M9 like you've described with a sensor/processor specifically tuned to maximize black and white captures would definitely have me interested. It would be an excellent tool for street photography and photojournalism.
 

monza

Active member
Roger, do you really think they would attempt the big bang? What do you guess are the odds of pulling that off?

There have been conflicting reports regarding Leica-owned stores on this forum, but that has indeed now been confirmed. If Leica will be moving to this distribution model they have no choice but to rectify their production issues. The Apple model works, only if there is sufficient product flow...retail space is costly if there is nothing to move out the door.

If they do move in this direction, I would venture the monochrome body would be priced significantly lower, although I can also see them offering it as a special edition as you speculate...

Interesting times...
 
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