Ok you don t believe that the d800 will impact the sales of the S2 . I do . Leica produces (my guess ) not much more than 150 maybe 200 at peak S2 s per month . (M production is 1000 +) . I believe that the D800 will take some market share from the S line . Good point on the fact that even larger MP sensors may not be far off. But the S2 had a large easily visible advantage over the D3X ,with the D800 is smaller .
Equally important is that the S2 has been out a few years ...my 2 year warranty is up in January and I didn t buy right away . S2 sales are dropping off if for no other reason than (who wants to take the financial hit of buying an S2 a few months before a possible new model ). Used prices are down since the beginning of the year .
So Leica doesn t need to answer nikon but they need to decide what they will make in 2013. They can stick with the s2 , they can refresh the S2 with firmware,upgrades etc or they can come out with an S3 . (What else could they do ? )
Guess we will see in September . I am a sucker for the new camera introductions and I will be going . What ever Leica does with the s2 won t matter much to me ...I am pretty happy . But the M10 will be a different story and they have my attention.
Maybe I needed less coffee ..
Roger, here's a different perspective on your questions. Forgive the length, but I hope it sheds some light on what forms my opinion on all this:
I most certainly don't disagree that for certain target consumers, the D800 makes a lot more sense than a S2, or even a S3 for that matter. That has always been true about most any Leica product. Leica anything has never been a "practical" choice, and for the most part probably never will be. Witness the foray into excellent but more "practical" M optics that perplexed Leica with poor sales compared to backlogs on the ultra expensive lenses. Also witness the M9 titanium that did not offer any practical IQ performance over a stock M9, sold for a stupid amount of money, and was gobbled up in no time flat. These are hints as to what works for Leica and what does not. Exclusivity is the hallmark less than practical exercises ... in retrospect, "practical" cost the company huge amounts of money compared to exclusive products that injected high ROI almost immediately.
I am not privy to any hard S system sales data, so have no comment as to whether S2 sales are down or up compared to Leica projections, or wether Leica even cares. I do know for a fact, that Leica has made the decision to market differently, and competitive sets are NOT part of that new marketing position. Part and parcel of that decision is the short and long term impact of that change ... and I believe they are prepared to absorb the short range ramifications to construct that new long term vision for the Leica Brand. How many of us here are part of that new target audience is debatable. They are NOT moving toward the pond with all other brands, they are swimming even further upstream to cater to a smaller niche audience to become an even more exclusive brand.
Admittedly I do not have the production and engineering understanding that many including you may have ... however, from my years in marketing considered goods, I understand exactly what they are doing and frankly think they are dead-on right in doing it.
The above will have more influence on what Leica does next than anything other brands may do, or what we may think about it. It will depend heavily on what their niche target considers to be exclusive ... or how well Leica markets what they have to that new target, who doesn't consider their purchases with their wallet in mind as much as many of us do. If it turns out that the S line HAS to be 70 meg to appeal to that specific target, then it'll be 70 meg. I do know that such considerations have less to do with an exclusivity positioning than other aspects of a product offering ... which includes the actual buying experience ... thus the whole new way Leica will be sold in future at exclusive boutiques and brick-and-mortar stores in exclusive locations.
An interesting side issue with ultra exclusive products is the initial down-turn in resale value. Wealthy targets do not by used unless there is no other way to get something exclusive (witness the M lens shortages and used prices that people are willing to pay). Long term is a different matter as the residual effect of moving further-and-further upstream begins impacting the market.
As to more immediate S2 projections, Leica already has something in their hip pocket ... the ever elusive S leaf-shutter lenses. This aspect would further add exclusivity to the existing system, and placate many S users including me. I need/want/would use this more than more pixels or higher ISO. It is a huge factor for those who use lighting, and lighting is another aspect that has yet impacted S users (I'm writing a blog entry on the "creative" impact lighting can have on the S2 user, which is a growing niche in itself). I will be VERY miffed if they announce a new S camera before fulfilling the SC lens trade-in promise which was a MAJOR factor in my buying into the S system.
I'm sure there will be an S3, and it will employ new tech ... whether existing S users will ALL be the target is debatable. Those that sold everything they own to get a S2 may not be able to pony up the price ... again. However, if they are satisfied with what they have as it relates to their creative needs, it won't make much difference.
-Marc
