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S3 at Photokina?

jonoslack

Active member
The consumer group for the S2 and D800 are not the same. They don't even go to the same country club or car dealers. To say the D800 will rob Leica of S2 sales is like saying the Hipsamatic will rob Nikon of D800 sales. Anyone willing to put $30K down on a camera is not looking for a cheap alternative.
I've been trying to find a good way of saying that - you just did it - I'm sure it's right
 

Guy Mancuso

Administrator, Instructor
Sorry guys not buying into that one what about me I have the Nikon and a 50 k Phase system. It's about needs not earnings.
 

Guy Mancuso

Administrator, Instructor
Believe me anyone buying today even spending 50 k on a system is going to stop by the counter and kick the tires on the Nikon before they drop it on a Leica, phase , Hassy . I don't care how much money they have they would be morons if they did not. At 36 mpx which we all know is a huge selling point is mpx people will at least stop and take a look at it. May not buy it but they will look. Everyone wants to save a buck somewhere. I do not know one person of extreme wealth that did not short cut something somewhere.
 

glenerrolrd

Workshop Member
The consumer group for the S2 and D800 are not the same. They don't even go to the same country club or car dealers. To say the D800 will rob Leica of S2 sales is like saying the Hipsamatic will rob Nikon of D800 sales. Anyone willing to put $30K down on a camera is not looking for a cheap alternative. And those looking for the best bang for the buck usually don't look at Leica.

If the M10 is coming out this year, I am not sure Leica will also be investing in an S3 release. I think they would want to wait for a little return on one camera before going to the next. I also think they may want to beef up the S2 line of lenses, although with the release of lens adapters it seems Leica is saying the lenses will be slow coming.
Could not disagree more . This is an over simplification that is based on the ability to pay . It should not be inferred that the D800 s only advantages are in its low cost . What I believe is that Leica will lose some sales ..lets say 20% to photographers that will choose the D800. (my number ). Doesn t mean that Leica can t get new sales in other places just that photographers have new choices

I am a good example ...I have no limits on my photography budget . My primary system is based on the M platform and I shoot 70% of yearly images with the M . My second system is the nikon D3s/d3x (to be replaced by the D800E/D4) which I use primarily for sports,long glass and flash . My 3rd system is the S2 which I use wherever I can take advantage of MF ..mostly travel,landscape and some portraits .

Did I need an S2 system ..no ...I just wanted one and hoped I could use it more . Its sucks for most street shooting (Kurt s experience aside he is just good with any camera) and Sports . And it has no long glass . I still enjoy the heck out of it for travel and landscape. But had the D800E been around when I got the D3X I might have just worked with the M system and the Nikon s . I really like the idea that I could have 2 D800 bodies and 4 primes for some of my trips.

Agree completely that almost all D800 buyers would never consider an S2 ...but some S2 buyers may consider a d800.

Doesn t really matter much in the argument . The sales of the S2 are normalizing ...the big push at the beginning of the lifecycle is over . You can buy anything you want its in stock and used prices are dropping .

The only thing you have to agree with ..is that sales of the S2 going into 2013 look to be below full capacity . I believe its because new alternatives with better value propositions have entered the market (competing for the same $$$) and that the normal life cycle of the S2 has reached beyond its peak demand .

Leica has the three alternatives and good cases can be made for each .

1. They can stay the course with the S2 and live off the lenses and other product lines .

2. They can significantly improve the s2 (like High ISO firmware ) and create confidence that the S2 will be around a while and continue to get better.

3. They can introduce an new model S3 thats better than the s2 in some marketable way.

I have been convinced by the discussion that Leica will stay the course . The R&D resources are limited and priority will be given to the M10 and the higher volume EVIL system . Cutting back production would actually ease the plant transition . Losing sales of a few hundred S models would be insignificant . This is more in keeping with how the manufacturing executives would look at the situation.

Longer term I believe they will respond with an S3 with more MP among a list of new features . They will not answer the D800 ...they will move up and compete at the highest levels of the MF world.
 

fotografz

Well-known member
Could not disagree more . This is an over simplification that is based on the ability to pay . It should not be inferred that the D800 s only advantages are in its low cost . What I believe is that Leica will lose some sales ..lets say 20% to photographers that will choose the D800. (my number ). Doesn t mean that Leica can t get new sales in other places just that photographers have new choices

I am a good example ...I have no limits on my photography budget . My primary system is based on the M platform and I shoot 70% of yearly images with the M . My second system is the nikon D3s/d3x (to be replaced by the D800E/D4) which I use primarily for sports,long glass and flash . My 3rd system is the S2 which I use wherever I can take advantage of MF ..mostly travel,landscape and some portraits .

Did I need an S2 system ..no ...I just wanted one and hoped I could use it more . Its sucks for most street shooting (Kurt s experience aside he is just good with any camera) and Sports . And it has no long glass . I still enjoy the heck out of it for travel and landscape. But had the D800E been around when I got the D3X I might have just worked with the M system and the Nikon s . I really like the idea that I could have 2 D800 bodies and 4 primes for some of my trips.

Agree completely that almost all D800 buyers would never consider an S2 ...but some S2 buyers may consider a d800.

Doesn t really matter much in the argument . The sales of the S2 are normalizing ...the big push at the beginning of the lifecycle is over . You can buy anything you want its in stock and used prices are dropping .

The only thing you have to agree with ..is that sales of the S2 going into 2013 look to be below full capacity . I believe its because new alternatives with better value propositions have entered the market (competing for the same $$$) and that the normal life cycle of the S2 has reached beyond its peak demand .

Leica has the three alternatives and good cases can be made for each .

1. They can stay the course with the S2 and live off the lenses and other product lines .

2. They can significantly improve the s2 (like High ISO firmware ) and create confidence that the S2 will be around a while and continue to get better.

3. They can introduce an new model S3 thats better than the s2 in some marketable way.

I have been convinced by the discussion that Leica will stay the course . The R&D resources are limited and priority will be given to the M10 and the higher volume EVIL system . Cutting back production would actually ease the plant transition . Losing sales of a few hundred S models would be insignificant . This is more in keeping with how the manufacturing executives would look at the situation.

Longer term I believe they will respond with an S3 with more MP among a list of new features . They will not answer the D800 ...they will move up and compete at the highest levels of the MF world.
To be clear ... it sucks for street shooting for you. Kurt isn't the only person using the S2 in that manner to good effect. However, it isn't necessarily a do it all tool, but I probably wouldn't consider a D800 a sports camera either.

You use a M for a great majority of shooting, then a 35mm DSLR, and it sounds like not much S2 work. Reverse that order and the camera reveals itself more each time you shoot with it. I've made that point a number of times, one has to really work with any of these larger format cameras for some time to get the most out of it ... but we are constantly looking for the next thing, and never zero in on a piece of gear. I've hardly touched my 35mm DSLR since I got the S2, and shoot it even more than the M9 now ... which is one reason I won't invest in more 35mm stuff, and trimmed the M9 kit. I knew exactly how I'd use the S2 and knew it'd become the dominate camera before I got it.

Not sure how you know that S2 sales going into 2013 are below full capacity. What is the criteria for measuring that? The S2 exceeded Leica's projections and they couldn't fill demand at first, which kept used sales higher than normal for this category of camera. Production may simply even out now and be more in tune with their original projections ... which if I recall correctly, were pretty low. Used prices may normalize like other cameras in this category now that the initial demand wanes and stock becomes available.

I do not agree with the "Value" proposition as you seem to define it. For something to have value you first have to want it. Your proposition hinges on your belief that the D800 is close enough for what you want ... and you may not have bought the S2 if the D800 had been available. Personally, once the system was rounded out enough, I wanted the S2 period. So my criteria obviously differs from yours. I do not want a D800, (or a D900), therefore it has zero value ... and none of it has anything to do with price ... it is a subjective creative decision.

The 3 paths forward you outline make sense. Leica could choose any one, or a combination of the 2 and 3 to move forward.

-Marc
 

GMB

Active member
I would also expect an anoouncement before the end of the year.
I agree. In the digital world, a 3 year old camera is (perceived as) old technology. The times when you could sell the same camera for 10 years are gone. The only alternative would be to significantly "upgrade" the S2 via firmware, which may or may not be possible.

So the more interesting question (or to be precise: speculation) is what would the S3 look like.

Personally, I don't lust for more MP. The only thing that that would allow me to do is to crop even more the hell out of the files. But at anything close to an un-cropped file, I can print at whatever size I need/want (and if I ever want to enter the Gurski print size league, I'd get a Phase back and a tech camera). In fact, I think that more MP can actually be counter-productive (slower processing, even greater risk of camera shake etc.). However, most likely the S3 will have more MP (60-70 would be my guess).

What I think the camera must have is better high ISO (a useable 2500 or 3200 would be great). Also, an increased DR would be great (I do hit the limits from time to time). But other than that, I am not sure what can be done IQ wise (for me, the IQ in good light is simply astounding).

However, what I would like to see, and what could persuade me to upgrade, are improvements as regards general camera technology, specifically regarding autofocus:


1.) Better autofocus tracking for subjects that move towards you. I don't need to shoot Formula 1 cars that speed towards me with the S3, but the camera should be able to focus track a person walking at normal speed. According to Michael Reichmann's test, the D800 can track a running dog, and there is no reason IMHO that the S2 or S3 should not be able to do the same. Even though there are ways to work around this, for people who use the camera as a general purpose travel camera, this would be a great improvement. In fact, I hope this could be implemented in the S3 through a firmware update.​

2.) Higher frame rate. Again, no reason why the S2 or S3 should not be able of shooting at a higher rate, similar to that of the S3.​

There may be other improvements, such as live view, a bigger screen, faster zooming into the pictures, focus masking etc., but all of the are of secondary importance for me (if at all).

OTOH, what I hope Leica will not do is to mess around with the interface. Indeed, the purity and simplicity of the user interface is one of the reasons why the camera is such a joy to use; it also is IMHO one of the three USPs (unique selling points) of the camera (the other two are the lenses and the view finder--who wants to look through another DSLR view finder once you've looked through the S2 finder?).

Two final comments:

First, I have no doubt that Leica will continue the S line and improve it. They created a unique and very successful product from scratch. I can't see any reason to give it up after just a few years. Moreover, Leica is a luxury brand and presents it like such (new Leica stores etc.). As a luxury brand it needs a flagship product such as the S line.

Second, I also assume that the decision which improvements will be incorporated into the S3 will be guided by who are the buyers of the camera. My guess is that you have broadly three categories:

1.) Professionals (of which 50-75% use the camera in a studio or in controlled situations, including weddings and the remainder in the field).

2) Gentleman photographers, i..e, the serious hobbyist who like myself, Kurt, paratom, or glenerrolrd use and enjoy the system, who bought the system because of the pictures it produces and in order to take pictures, and who are able to spend 50k on a camera and lenses (and who can do so without having to take out a loan or break the bank).

3) The rich trophy hunter who buys the camera because of the brand prestige and because it is expensive (many of those are now in Asia or Russia).

It is difficult to guess what percentage each group represents, but I think that group 2 likely represents some 50% of the customers, group 1) 30% and group 3) 20%.

Each group will have different demands and Leica will decide which group it will target.

Anyway, I think I played enough Leica analyst for today. I only hope that whatever the S3 will look like, Leica is going to continue to upgrade as much as possible the S2 through firmware updates.
 

weinschela

Subscriber Member
The consumer group for the S2 and D800 are not the same. They don't even go to the same country club or car dealers. To say the D800 will rob Leica of S2 sales is like saying the Hipsamatic will rob Nikon of D800 sales. Anyone willing to put $30K down on a camera is not looking for a cheap alternative. And those looking for the best bang for the buck usually don't look at Leica.
An economist would agree with this and conclude that S2 and D800 are not in the same "relevant market" because there is little cross elasticity of demand between them. In other words, they are so far apart that a 5 or 10% change in price on one (up or down, it doesn't matter) will produce a change in demand for the other -- purchase shifts. That means if Leica is intelligent, there will be no price response on S2 (or S3) in response to D800. You can buy 8 D800s for one S2, and the only reason for Leica to reduce price is to increase profit by increasing volume. You can see easily that this is a nonstarter proposition because of the huge gap. Rolls Royce does not respond to Honda on pricing or otherwise. Maybe not the best of analogies but you get the point.

That does not mean the D800 is completely irrelevant. The way Leica has marketed and will continue to market is to offer something unique and exclusive. The D800 purely on MP takes that issue away from Leica as an exclusive but we all know that MP is not the goal -- the goal is good images -- and Leica can and probably will continue to market the sensor size and optics and simplicity, the "feel" of its equipment and "look" of its images. There are no signs now of Leica doing anything radical any time soon on its DSLR. All the noise has been about an M10 or a BW M9 or a consumer oriented EVIL camera. That doesn't mean they aren't doing anything because Leica is very secretive. I am personally more interested in a real M10 (not a crippled BW version) than a S2 or S3, but that is because I prefer the M unless I need a DSLR (and will have a D800e for those times I need one).
 

glenerrolrd

Workshop Member
New information via Leica rumors predicting a new sensor vendor for Leica ..ST a French firm . Predicting new Leica S model at Photokina . So maybe the need to develop a new sensor vendor is driving the change .

If this one is accurate ..info on new vendor looks solid ..timing who knows ...then you could guess that the M10 will have a change in the sensor vendor as well.
 

glenerrolrd

Workshop Member
An economist would agree with this and conclude that S2 and D800 are not in the same "relevant market" because there is little cross elasticity of demand between them. In other words, they are so far apart that a 5 or 10% change in price on one (up or down, it doesn't matter) will produce a change in demand for the other -- purchase shifts. That means if Leica is intelligent, there will be no price response on S2 (or S3) in response to D800. You can buy 8 D800s for one S2, and the only reason for Leica to reduce price is to increase profit by increasing volume. You can see easily that this is a nonstarter proposition because of the huge gap. Rolls Royce does not respond to Honda on pricing or otherwise. Maybe not the best of analogies but you get the point.

That does not mean the D800 is completely irrelevant. The way Leica has marketed and will continue to market is to offer something unique and exclusive. The D800 purely on MP takes that issue away from Leica as an exclusive but we all know that MP is not the goal -- the goal is good images -- and Leica can and probably will continue to market the sensor size and optics and simplicity, the "feel" of its equipment and "look" of its images. There are no signs now of Leica doing anything radical any time soon on its DSLR. All the noise has been about an M10 or a BW M9 or a consumer oriented EVIL camera. That doesn't mean they aren't doing anything because Leica is very secretive. I am personally more interested in a real M10 (not a crippled BW version) than a S2 or S3, but that is because I prefer the M unless I need a DSLR (and will have a D800e for those times I need one).
Alan

Not sure that anyone has indicated that Leica need respond to the D800 price by reducing their prices. The market we are concerned about are those photographers that either already buy Leica or could afford to if the product looks attractive .

From the files I have seen the D800 does not match the IQ or the MF aesthetic ...but it beats the heck out of the S2 in AF ,speed of operation,ability to handle long glass etc . So for some applications the D800 would be a preferred alternative . The hype for sure exceeds reality but I am sure its a great camera .

The only point is that if I was on the fence about the S2 ...probably concerned about investing $50K in a single body and 4 lenses....I would certainly consider a D800 . I would know that its not the same but I might feel better spending less.

My opinion is that Leica needs to respond ..when the factory is in a position to produce S bodies ....with an S3 that creates a bigger gap in IQ . Others have rightly suggested that the CS lenses might have a similar affect .
 

weinschela

Subscriber Member
Alan

Not sure that anyone has indicated that Leica need respond to the D800 price by reducing their prices. The market we are concerned about are those photographers that either already buy Leica or could afford to if the product looks attractive .

From the files I have seen the D800 does not match the IQ or the MF aesthetic ...but it beats the heck out of the S2 in AF ,speed of operation,ability to handle long glass etc . So for some applications the D800 would be a preferred alternative . The hype for sure exceeds reality but I am sure its a great camera .

The only point is that if I was on the fence about the S2 ...probably concerned about investing $50K in a single body and 4 lenses....I would certainly consider a D800 . I would know that its not the same but I might feel better spending less.

My opinion is that Leica needs to respond ..when the factory is in a position to produce S bodies ....with an S3 that creates a bigger gap in IQ . Others have rightly suggested that the CS lenses might have a similar affect .
Roger: We're really not in disagreement. My point was that Leica would not respond in price because it would be nonsensical to do so. Their response can be to emphasize what they already have in the S2 or to come up with something even better. Either way, they will not be positioning the S2 or S3 as a direct competitor to a D800 (nor did they re a D3x or 1Ds mkiii). They are trying to carve out a niche that is more MF than 35mm. But either way, we agree that Leica must somehow position itself as having something unique that warrants the price. That can be features, IQ, or the Red Dot or something else.
 
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