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S3 at Photokina?

glenerrolrd

Workshop Member
While I don t think Leica will say anything about the next generation S camera on 5/10 (the Berlin show is pretty well known ) , Will Leica create a stir at Photokina with an S announcements .

In developing predictions(much different than RUMORS..which is what you hear from your camera dealer) , you should always look to whats in the best interest of Leica (not what you want or would buy). They will only offer what they feel is best and you can only buy what they offer .

The Nikon D800/E is now being felt in almost every section of the camera market . Just look at the for sale items and you can see photographers repositioning their kits to incorporate the D800. At $3000-3300 and 36MP its a disruptive technology .... a value proposition that is near perfect . Will it be as good as MF ...no size matters ...but its getting closer and in some ways it will be better . And nikon has a huge base of photographers that have legacy glass and d700/d3 s to pull from. They could care less if I sell my S2 I am not relevant .

The S2 (I am biased as I own one and 5 lenses) is a superb camera with the best lenses I have seen . But at 40MP its not enough to attract new photographers to part with $50K . At lower $$$ I would expect that any MF camera system in the 40-50MP range will be suspect . Spend $40K and next year its $20K? I watch the prices of the S2 and the lenses each week and they are way down from private sellers . The D800 has in some ways frozen the market and with less than 5 months until Photokina ...do you want to bet?

So what should Leica do ? If they can I would announce a 70MP S3 at Photokina . And I would suck it up and keep the price near the S2 . The S camera is a limited edition compared to the M and producing a new model should not stress the factory ...they produce 1000 + M cameras each month ...can the S be more than 100?

Its not price sensitive ...but feeling stupid about spending so much wears you down . The conventional wisdom is the lenses will be keepers for 10 years but the bodies are relevant for 2-4 depending on when you buy.

Otherwise a year from now ..who will be visiting the new Leica studios to see the S cameras in action?

Not a rumor a prediction.
 
V

Vivek

Guest
I like a lot of the stuff, Roger.

I will just throw in the Leica S1 and where it is (or not) now.
 
Roger,
Aren't you ignoring the very premise of the S2 with your hope that Leica will insert a 70 megapixel sensor? After all, the primary draw of the S2 is the form factor of the body (as well as the optics)... the fact that it handles like a 35mm camera and can be hand held. Given the current limitation on high iso that the S2 imposes (compared to the superior high iso that the D800 provides) you would not be handholding the S3 if it had a 70 megapixel sensor if your intention was to obtain optimum IQ.

A camera that requires tripod mounting (in the absence of high iso capability such as the D800 currently displays) would be no better than the competition in the medium format field. The form factor that makes the S2 relevant ceases to be valid if a tripod is required.

I'm neither stating nor implying that the D800 is comparable or better, simply that the high iso capability of the Nikon allows it to be hand held at higher iso than the Leica.

Another issue is regarding output on a fine art cotton rag paper, for those who use such papers. Given the dot gain of cotton rag papers, will you even see a difference between the D800 and S2 in print? No doubt you'll see it at lower iso on screen... but the print is where the runner meets the road.

Far better, in my opinion, would be for Leica to employ a sensor with greater dynamic range and significantly improved high iso capability so the camera can be used in a wider variety of lighting conditions.

Lawrence
 

Paratom

Well-known member
I am pretty sure the next generation S-camera will have both, more MP and improved high ISO.
Personally the higher ISO would be more benefitial for me since I dont really need more MP.
Better DR? maybe, doesnt hurt, but I dont feel limited at all with what the S2 does allready regarding DR.
The hype around the D800 still shows that MP and Dr numbers help to attract cusomers. So I guess Leica will include those factors in the "S3", whenever it will be announced. I guess they can not wait for ever and agree with you in this point.
I dont know yet if I will follow every evolutionary step in this system, or if I might skip one or to steps and rather spend the money for lenses. (But then I dont feel I need any new lenses right now).
 

Paratom

Well-known member
....
Far better, in my opinion, would be for Leica to employ a sensor with greater dynamic range and significantly improved high iso capability so the camera can be used in a wider variety of lighting conditions.

Lawrence

I agree regarding the high ISO capability.
 

glenerrolrd

Workshop Member
Roger,
Aren't you ignoring the very premise of the S2 with your hope that Leica will insert a 70 megapixel sensor? After all, the primary draw of the S2 is the form factor of the body (as well as the optics)... the fact that it handles like a 35mm camera and can be hand held. Given the current limitation on high iso that the S2 imposes (compared to the superior high iso that the D800 provides) you would not be handholding the S3 if it had a 70 megapixel sensor if your intention was to obtain optimum IQ.

A camera that requires tripod mounting (in the absence of high iso capability such as the D800 currently displays) would be no better than the competition in the medium format field. The form factor that makes the S2 relevant ceases to be valid if a tripod is required.

I'm neither stating nor implying that the D800 is comparable or better, simply that the high iso capability of the Nikon allows it to be hand held at higher iso than the Leica.

Another issue is regarding output on a fine art cotton rag paper, for those who use such papers. Given the dot gain of cotton rag papers, will you even see a difference between the D800 and S2 in print? No doubt you'll see it at lower iso on screen... but the print is where the runner meets the road.

Far better, in my opinion, would be for Leica to employ a sensor with greater dynamic range and significantly improved high iso capability so the camera can be used in a wider variety of lighting conditions.

Lawrence
Can t argue with high ISO performance being a key factor . From the tests I have seen part of the D800 performance is a result of working with 36mp and requiring less up sizing to a specific print size. So its a balance of performance at 100% pixel level and amount of resizing required ..thus the trend seems to be to higher MPs (again).

The market gravitates toward more MP s even in the MF world. Look at the Phase IQ backs ...nobody needed more than 40MP last year and now the IQ180 is the big seller .

Your points are worth considering but I think the market will be requiring significantly more MPs to keep the S3 competitive . Just a prediction .
 

atanabe

Member
+1 for better high ISO in the next iteration of the S2 or better still a new algorithm for the existing model :thumbup:

Every time that Leica does one of these announcements present digital platforms go into a tailspin. The M8 prices went down and are now back up, M9 prices are down and so are the S2 prices. The great unknown behind the curtain and the quest for the next newest thing generates these fluctuations that really do not affect what you are shooting. If the M10 came out with a B&W only sensor will it make my M9 that can shoot full spectrum and then processed to B&W obsolete? I think not. If the high ISO capability on the S3 went to 25,000 with out DR degradation - maybe sway me to consider upgrading. For now I live with a 640 ceiling and deal with it.

The exit door from MF digital is wide open, those that touted MFD as the way to go for an all around solution are now relegating it to specialized landscape solutions. While the results from the D800E do look sharp and detailed, they still lack that extra "something" that I get from the S2 and Hasselblad CFV files. After looking at the online examples from the D800E, I feel that the old CFV 16 MPX has better DR and sharpness. I have a D800E on order but I do not think that it will replace my S2 but supplement the long lens capability. Now when I get it and see for myself how it compares - that may be a different story. Historically I have favored CCD over CMOS sensors the image character off of the CCD is much more genuine and truer to reality. You can readily see it in skin, without makeup, it retains the translucent quality of the skin. CMOS tends to plasticize the skin, which if you are shooting a heavily made up model can be to your advantage.


-Al
 

glenerrolrd

Workshop Member
Al

The question at hand is how should Leica respond to the disruptive technology . A $3000 36MP DSLR with great high ISO,DR and color . (maybe not as good as MF but by any measure pretty great ).

They(leica S2) have a lot of pluses (spoken as true Leica fan) but I might question if I would buy an S2 today ..given the alternatives . But like all technologies I expect Leica to respond with a better version of the S2 at Photokina ..if they don t it might be a cold winter in Wetzler .

I think the M10 will be different ..better high ISO performance is my number 1,2,3 desire and I am not sure its even possible with a CCD sensor . MP don t mean much beyond 18MP for street shooting .
 

Guy Mancuso

Administrator, Instructor
Not so sure the word disruptive technology is really the right description . Maybe better said and right now the S2 faces this as well as others is the improved technology. Right now everything is a step or two behind what Nikon has pulled off at a great price point. The key for the S2 is yes some more Mpx's but technology that is even past what Nikon just did and at lower costs but functionality we have not seen yet or is possible at the moment. CCD let's face it is most likely at the technology end of its life cycle. Not so sure anyone can pull anything more out of it without changing the whole technology base. What Leica needs to do is get beyond what current is available. Seriously they just got jammed up by Nikon, it's gotten so close now not many would part with the price point that it is given what Nikon just released. I know I would not buy a S2 right now even if they dropped it in half. Now a S3 right now that far exceeds what is current at the same price point of the S2 is a diffrent story. The lenses have a lot of elbow room to go, which is a huge plus but we all realize the sensor is dated too. So what's next for Leica and I think the real answer is beyond Nikon technology. And believe this does not leave out the MF backs either. Really the only way to compete with the game changer of the Nikon is to spank it with new technology whatever that maybe. We simply can't keep asking people to drop 50k without some real bite over Nikon. Now we need to realize Nikon hit a home run but no grand slam either. They got close to make us big sensor folks to make us all a little uncomfortable. We have to admit to this , sorry there is no hiding I have one and it's damn good and I have a 60 mpx back too. Mpx alone is not the answer in total. But hard core value to the price point is.
 

Paratom

Well-known member
Al

The question at hand is how should Leica respond to the disruptive technology . A $3000 36MP DSLR with great high ISO,DR and color . (maybe not as good as MF but by any measure pretty great ).

They(leica S2) have a lot of pluses (spoken as true Leica fan) but I might question if I would buy an S2 today ..given the alternatives . But like all technologies I expect Leica to respond with a better version of the S2 at Photokina ..if they don t it might be a cold winter in Wetzler .

I think the M10 will be different ..better high ISO performance is my number 1,2,3 desire and I am not sure its even possible with a CCD sensor . MP don t mean much beyond 18MP for street shooting .
IMO there are 2 things:

a) short time customer opinion (MP are still an overrated factor, color and DR and detail are judged based on 2 or 3 shots by some internet-review-sites)
best example: the D800 "hype"; no matter how good the D800 is

b) the "real" thing; how good is the overall color balance; how good is microdetail; how goos is skin tone; how "3d" do images look like; bokeh; wide open performance of lenses; user interface; I think one can only answer after having used a system for a longer period in various conditions.

I believe a camera brand has to make decisions based on both factors a) and b). Lets say even if people didnt need more MP, if the customers think they need it, or if it is a decision factor, then the supplier has to include it in the product.
Kind of sad; it is not allways about building the "Best" camera; it is often more about building the camera with the best chance to create sales and turnaround;
 

atanabe

Member
Roger,
One thing that I hope they do not do is what Hasselblad did a few years back on the H3D and lower the price by 25%. Come up with an upgrade path yes, but do not drop the price which will hurt the current users.

As far as what they should do to counter the flood, hurry up and come out with the CS lenses that were promised last year, bring out the T/S lens and zoom. That in itself will keep sales numbers flowing and keep frustrated owners from selling their cameras due to lack of lenses. There are probably more amateur users than professional users by a wide margin and to that group, the need to have the best imaging platform at what ever cost does not fit into the equation. They do not have to perform at the highest levels every shot and own the S2 because it gives them joy to possess it. Also the large group of amateurs that have the means to afford the S2 can easily afford to have the D800 as well and it would not worry their banker one bit. So this becomes a game of retention of the existing base of customers and building a story of why the S2 has the advantage over the D800. For most professional photographers, investing $75K cash on an S2 outfit is prohibitive. But if Leica were to tailor a lease deal that would be paid monthly and 100% tax deductible you open the doors a lot wider. Nikon and Canon do not offer this, Hasselblad does, Hasselblad has a lot of the market as does Phase.

AND in the end, you have made the purchase of the S2 and will be getting a D800 - but will you end up replacing the S2 with it? I really doubt it, it raced through my mind and at times still does. What I came to the conclusion was that the D800 would produce highly detailed images if I were to buy the right lens, not just any lens, but the perfectly aligned lens from Nikon. But I know that every time I look at any of the MF captures and compare it to a 35 capture, the images do not compare. Square inches rules! This goes back to the analog film days, my 8x10 chromes sure looked better on the lightbox compared to the 21/4 images.

-Al
 

glenerrolrd

Workshop Member
It does t matter from a sellers viewpoint if the D800 is better than the S2 or the other way around . The disruptive aspect is that its so much cheaper making it an alternative for many more prospective buyers . It has advantages and disadvantages when compared to the MF alternatives ..I think everyone here agrees on the differences.

Leica manufactures cameras and lenses. They count on the S line for a creating a financial contribution . Most S owners that I have spoken with have 3-4 lenses . The CS lenses will create significant short term revenue . But who will be buying the new S2 bodies ? This why I believe that have to introduce the S3 at Photokina and it has to be 70MPS to compete for both new and existing customers .

Just a prediction nothing more .
 

wattsy

Active member
While the results from the D800E do look sharp and detailed, they still lack that extra "something" that I get from the S2 and Hasselblad CFV files.
Yes, there is IMO much more to medium format than increased resolution and/or smoother tonality. There is also a 'look' to MF (especially real MF like 6x7) that comes from using longer focal length lenses (compared with 35mm) for a given field of view. It's also why large format (in the right hands) looks fantastic for applications like portraiture. The D800E is undoubtedly very sharp and very detailed but it won't be able to shake off the 35mm 'look' that comes from the sensor's physical size and lenses used.
 

fotografz

Well-known member
IMO, all these types of discussions are skewed toward a financial and superiority "worry" mentality as opposed to a creative one. The question is, will Leica react to that mentality? From current indications, and their new marketing and positioning platform to source new customers (which I've seen), the answer seems to be NO.

Tracking resale values is a financial "worry" mentality, and valid IF one is on an automatic and constant upgrade path to the next best thing whether one has even mastered the one before it, or actually needs more, bigger, better. We are told we need it, so we follow. Rather than worrying about our creative work, we worry we may be falling behind. It has all gotten mixed up with personal superiority complexes and ownership bragging rights, as opposed to creative objectives and developing a relationship with one's tools to execute those creative ideas.

Personally, I believe the term "disruptive technology", is a symptom of the above. It is disruptive only if fixated on MP as the measure of one's creative worth. Did anyone think the masses would NOT be catered to with ever higher 35mm DSLR MPs? Sony fired that shot over the bow of the $8,000 high meg DSLRs years ago with the 24 meg sub $3,000 A900 ... followed by an even less costly A850. MPs have become a commodity that doggedly has one key value to camera marketers ... most buyers still feel it is the empirical measure of superiority ... thus the predictions of a 50 meg DSLR (primarily meant to "worry" MFD owners?) ... and wafting desire for a "superior" 70 meg S3, and the sensor tech necessary to distance it from encroaching 35mm DSLRs.

I have a 60 meg H4D, and have used a H camera now for so long, that there is little I can't do with it compared to the my S2. I use the respective systems to achieve different creative objectives ... just like I do between the M9 and Sony A900.

The last camera I'd consider is a D800. The look of 35mm anything at any MPs or sensor tech looks like 35mm to my eye. What I WOULD consider is a Canon 1DX or Nikon D4, because they are capable of achieving very different creative results against specific creative objectives that differ from those I would apply an S2 or H4D to. If I want frame rate, AF speed, high ISO ... my hope is that the Sony A99 goes there so I don't have to swap out lens systems ... again. Patience is invaluable, attention to creative inspiration a virtue ... and IMHO, worry about "commodity futures" is creatively counter-productive, and a corrosive mental illness ;)

-Marc
 

Shashin

Well-known member
The writing is on the wall. Now APS hit 35mm resolutions, 35mm sensors are just history. Nikon and Cannon must be quaking in their boots now that Sony has 24MP APS sensors. You get 90% of the quality of 35mm at 10X less cost. Who would even think of buying a Nikon D4 when the Nikon D3200 can do more for less and in fashion colors.

Now a word from our sponsors:

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And to echo Marc's comments--since when has the creative process been solely an economic one? Painting by numbers is certainly cost effective...
 

Guy Mancuso

Administrator, Instructor
You guys went way off topic. The thread is about what Leica will DO be it matters to your photography or your creative approach is irrelevant, that is not the topic. Whats the technology that they will come up with is the question that will compete from a business and sales standpoint. How will it handle going against a 3K Nikon is really the question here and its new technology, what leapfrog approach will they take.
 

Shashin

Well-known member
I though we were not supposed to stay on topic--you must admit it would be rare for a tread to stay on topic. But it was the OP who brought up the D800 in his first post.

Also, has Leica shown an indication they would bring out an S3 this year? I thought it was going to be an M10 year.
 

Guy Mancuso

Administrator, Instructor
Its always nice to try and stay on topic, I know we float. LOL

Now the D800 is the newest level of technology and it should be brought up as a comparison to what Leica should do beyond it. Thats really the heart of the thread
 

glenerrolrd

Workshop Member
Mark

Wow did you not have you coffee before you posted ? The post had zero to do with creativity or frankly what any of us want or like . Who doesn t know that the equipment today exceeds most photographers abilities and often has nothing much to do with the final result ? Yet we enjoy messing with cameras and trying to get the very best out of our gear . When I can t get out shooting I enjoy debating the fine points of the equipment and the craft skills required to produce the best IQ you can.

When you start a post by accusing someone (me in this case ) of being skewed or having a superiority ,worry mentality ..how does that contribute ?

You frequently point out your superior background and knowledge from working so long as an art director and ultimately owning your own business. I applaud your expertise .

In this case my post was simply a prediction based on known facts and understanding of how manufacturing businesses make these decisions. I am pretty well qualified as I was a managing partner in a worldwide consulting practice that has 300,000 employees. I did exactly this type of manufacturing strategy for about 10 years and built factories from scratch .

It was often a requirement to work within severe constraints for skilled labor and equipment capacities especially in the smaller manufacturing environments . Leica has had great success in building cameras and lenses that are the envy of the industry . But they have limits as we have seen with the lens shortages .

So going into Photokina ...I thought it might be fun to think like the guy that owns the place. Like it or not the D800 has taken the wind out of the sail for the S2 . I call it disruptive because it offers a new alternative ...with strengths and weaknesses compared to other 40MP alternatives ..at a disruptive price point . Getdpi even has workshops on getting the most out of a D800.

If Leica does not introduce an S3 at Photokina ..will the S2 still be selling this time next year ? Maybe ..Leica could take a position of improving the heck out of the S2 with firmware enhancements and maybe even factory upgrades as Nikon did with the D3 buffer . This would make a lot of s2 owners really happy and maybe convince some new buyers to jump in . (I like this strategy as an owner of the S2 and all 5 lenses) .


But Leica has capacity to fill ....lets say 150 cameras a month ? (my guess) . So as a manufacturer ...I would want to use that capacity in a way that creates current cash flow and positions the company for future demand . To do this I believe they need an S3 with a higher MP sensor . Of course it needs to be better in almost every way ..ISO,DR,Color Depth .

How you use the prediction is dependent on ...do you believe it and how would this affect you . If not at all great . In my case I was hoping to get a 2nd s2 so that I could travel with just the s2 kit . And wow I can get some great deals from those poor soles that are worried about the loss of value ..but I will wait and see what actually happens .

And as I said up front its just a prediction based on my experience and pretty decent known facts . Leica often doesn t follow the script so who knows .
 

Guy Mancuso

Administrator, Instructor
Also Leica does face the Kodak sensor issue and whats next on the company that bought them. Does Leica start looking at Dalsa or lets say they call Sony up on the phone can you produce the SAME sensor you made for the Nikon only in our format and gain more MPX. Not sure what number that is but my point is it needs a leapfrogging jump just like everything else . Do they play it safe , take a risk on new technology and what is the best game plan. Sure coming out with leaf shutters and TS lenses would help them but that does nothing as far as the future but just sell some more S2. That really does not grow the company in the long run. This just does not apply to Leica only either but leica does things in there own way as well. The S2 was a great start but success is often based on history which in the S category it does do not have it yet like it does in the R and M lines. I would love to be a fly on the wall in the technology meetings. I hope they come out with something even more amazing. I personally passed on the S2 since I thought it was not enough for my needs on a couple levels, next version I may not hold back. What are you going to do is the question I have for leica on my level that would draw me in and buy this time.
 
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