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Leica news posted on LUF....

robsteve

Subscriber
Well, I am still wondering why folks keep overlooking the concept that the S2 with is exclusive Maestro dual processors (whatever that means and is worth), that will be spitting out DNG files that should be able to be handled by any of the various processor apps out there.
LJ
The problem with native DNG shooting cameras is that RAW processors do not support the DNGs from them unless the camera is a supported camera for the raw processor. In other words, don't expect even ACR to support the S2 until Adobe puts the S2 into a newer release of ACR.

Robert
 

Georg Baumann

Subscriber Member
For some folks that like C1 this is really bad news. ME and my interest just went away. Sorry new camera , new software leica may develop is just bugs crawling all over the place. Can't take that risk. it remains to be seen but this will turn a lot of folks off.
Same thoughts when I read the BJP, it is weired, I think we all would have benefited from a Phase/Leica cooperation, and last year it looked really promising. <shrugs>

Will be interesting to see hat happens next.
 

robmac

Well-known member
In lieu of real info, all we have is 'emotional arguments'. That while purely speculation (for, against, neutral), are no better/worse than the marketing material from Leica, dealers via Leica and LFI, etc. It is to eb expected given the long lead time Leica has established between S2 anouncement vs expected release date. Real data (from working shelf units, not prototypes) kills speculation. Until then...

Actually, that's not entirely true, the real emotional debate will come (me thinks) when the price number gets dropped. ;<

Your points about spitting-out DNG/Maestro processor are well taken. But like the computer industry, in todays camera market, such an advantage (if a shooter even considers it such) is fleeting in duration - and only worth so much $$$$/risk to the subset of folks in the S2's target market.

As some counterpoints (in addition to Rob's very good one above):

- Converting raw files to DNG is currently a pretty fast and painless process
- The SW from Hassy and Phase isn't exactly asleep at the switch
- Some folks may not like being at the mercy of how Adobe/Apple decide to cook their S2 files (vs the guys who built the sensor/lenses - or who were partnering with you in an, ahem, "alliance").
- As a addendum to the above, there is only so much effort Adobe/Apple is going to put into the S2 IF (and it's a BIG IF) Leica even makes it worth their while. The units sold will only justify X much effort.
- As much as Leica Marketing chuckles at it, some folks like the Hassy integrated DAC system. Something only possible with home-cooked SW. Since 99.9999% of shooters work their files in PP anyway, the ability to almost certainly save beaucoup $$ on glass to get (I'm generalizing of course) the same effective print (vs S2 and Leica glass) re: CA, distortion control, etc., will be attractive to many.

While the MF market until now has moved innovation more slowly than it's DSLR brethren, I think we are going to see that pace quicken. There is only so far a MF player can compete/differentiate on price before they have to re-set the bar, otherwise it simply becomes a game of who can bleed to death the slowest.

I also should clarify my last comments in the prior post - the S2 at the expected price was a potentially sellable idea in the bad old days. It's still a sellable idea in todays market - at the right, and HIGHLY unlikely, price point. My critique is not on the tech of the camera and certainly not the glass - it's on the business wrapping it's (likely) coming in.
 
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robsteve

Subscriber
- As much as Leica Marketing chuckles at it, some folks like the Hassy integrated DAC system. Something only possible with home-cooked SW. Since 99.9999% of shooters work their files in PP anyway, the ability to almost certainly save beaucoup $$ on glass to get (I'm generalizing of course) the same effective print (vs S2 and Leica glass) re: CA, distortion control, etc., will be attractive to many.
The Leica DMR sales people had mentioned about lens corrections built into the software if ROM was used. A few years back, I demonstrated it by shooting a 19mm with and without ROM. Since the DMR was built by Imakon and Imakon is now Hasselblad, it make sense that they developed the system further to the DAC corrections they now have.

BTW, my guess is 20,000 Euros in Euroland, $20,000 in the USA.


Robert
 

robsteve

Subscriber
- Converting raw files to DNG is currently a pretty fast and painless process

Assuming the RAW processor doing the DNG conversion supports the Leica S2 files. Early adopters will be stuck with what ever Leica offers and will have to wait for support from other software unless Leica makes an alliance with Adobe or Apple.

My guess on this one is Leica make a deal with somebody small like Iridient Digital (RAW developer), or other niche player.

Robert
 
O

Oxide Blu

Guest
I thought the 19,999 figure was a joke ...
:thumbs:

I contemplated including ".99" but thought GetDPI is a more intellectual crowd - someone would pick up on it ... that and I didn't know if there was such a thing as a fractional Euro. I know there is not for the Japanese yen.
 

fotografz

Well-known member
My POV on all this has migrated quite a bit.

I think there may come a point where many MFD users will want off the rocket sled ... and either stick with what they have, or go for something like the S2 and eliminate multiple systems/formats.

I think over-all S2 performance will be the criteria more than price.

For all but a handful of shooters what this S2 promises to do (promises aren't proof) ... will be more than enough to satisfy their needs .... and do it well into the future. It would not break my heart to off-load a dump truck full of high-end 35mm and MF DSLR gear and zero in on something like the S2.

Yes, there are special needs for some people. Tech cameras are one of those needs. But if you combine all the high-end 35mm DSLRs and MFD cameras used as a system rather than a back on a tech camera, the user numbers are much higher and so are the sales potentials.

Were I Leica, I'd immediately position the S2 as a consolidating solution for those weary of seeking IQ and performance in multiple systems and the relentless upgrade path that is promoted by Canon, Nikon, (Sony?) Phase One and Hasselblad.

First of all it harkens to their heritage of solid performance with less emphasis on planed obsolescence. Fear of obsolescence has become a mental disease in this industry, and one that has been exploited relentlessly by the camera companies. It's a sickness that I suffer from personally, and would relish a cure. One can deplete their financial resources only so far ... and the constantly shifting learning curve does nothing more than deplete the mental resources better spent making photographs and creating better images.

The hurdle anyone with existing systems will face is a problem that the camera/back companies created for their customers ... and is a living example of why a solution is needed. What you have now is constantly being devalued by that relentless emphasis on making what you have obsolete as fast as possible. So, a whole bunch of customers are stuck with gear that devalued by as much as 60% in a blink of an eye.

A 37 meg quasi/MF capture that's decent up to ISO 800 (maybe 1600), with Leica optical performance, solid AF and a decent flash would cover 95% of my shooting situations. I could off-load a complete Nikon system, Sony system and Hasselbald H and V system and a pallet of lenses. The mental hurdle is the initial loss ... but the actuality of it would be the same or better performance across the board and one system to master ... then get back to making photographs for the next 10 years without looking back or worrying about what could be.
 

Guy Mancuso

Administrator, Instructor
Seriously the S2 type is my calling card. I like the one system approach and exactly what I am doing today. Sick of having multiply systems and multiply everything. The S2 is the crossroads for 35mm and MF for me because I shoot more DSLR style than anything else and reason I went the P30+ because I want that high ISO speed but a faster gun would be the ticket, the S2 has that promise but the S2 has to come in at the right price and than hit all the worry points at 100 percent to the plus side before I would even consider it and I am a serious gear slut but after many years i am not going down in flames over gear anymore. Still paying for old systems. This C1 thing really put a damper on this for me and does not make me a very happy camper but in all seriousness anything over 15k I am completely out of the running. that is my price point I am willing to go and not a nickel more.One reason is I am already there and no rush to move. This is a area leica needs to understand and deal with and that is switching current MF shooters , let's face it we are maybe more the market than anyone else. We already now how to spend money and have the need. Convincing 35mm to move up from there 22mpx wonders is going to be a tougher calling card. But as much as I have given this S2 a hard time and I have because it needs to hit the mark and I want Leica to know it, the bottom line is it is the system that fits me the best. But and this is a big but i will NOT be taking any risk here on it either. Just too much money at stake and in all honestly if Phase came out with a faster camera and a firmware update for my P30+ back to get some speed out of it than I would not even consider the S2. So to play in my ballpark Phase needs to up the game here and Leica needs to let me in the door at good costs otherwise i sit pat with what I have . I suspect I am very much not alone here and the folks that really are the main target audience. I know Marc which shoots different subject than me sits squarely in the same mind set as i do and many like us in the same boat.
 

LJL

New member
Guy, you are at the same conclusion point I have been since the announcement of the S2. It is also not unexpected to see Marc feeling the same way. The PROMISE of the S2 fits our type of needs pretty much spot on. The biggest potential deal killer is still the price, and I think the other stuff will follow behind that....meaning your C1 concerns, service issues, right lens and accessories mix, etc. I would be pretty content NOT getting any mix and match nightmare of other MF backs, glass, bodies, etc., as I really do not need all that other stuff supposedly offered beyond what the S2 will probably be able to deliver, and doing it much like the more bulletproof DSLR stuff I shoot now.

One comment made by Leica is that they are targeting 10K units per year, and plan to be in double digit market share. That suggests either they are a bit more out of touch in the new reality, or they may get very aggressive in marketing and selling the new system. I am hoping for the latter, but fear the more normal former is the case ;-)

LJ
 

dhsimmonds

New member
Reading the English translation it looks as if it was Phase One that pulled the plug as their statement indicated that when they went into the finer details of Leica's co-operation agreement, there were just too many unnacceptable conditions.

Probably to do with Leica not divulging the essential lens parameters for correction purposes etc. But who knows. Leica has had these sort of agreements before that have never seen the light of day for whatever reason.

More importantly, Leica do not have a professional world wide service organisation and some were hoping that the Phase/Leica co-operation might address this issue. So where does that leave pro photogs when a problem arises?

Phase are getting stronger in the M/F market with their majority holding in Mamiya and now taking over Leaf .

Leica claim that the market is worth 10,000 units a year and they are looking to get double digit share....so conservatively that would be 1,000 units. I just can't see Phase and Hasselblad allowing that to happen.

Leica make more u turns than our own government and that is really saying something!:ROTFL:
 

Lars

Active member
One comment made by Leica is that they are targeting 10K units per year, and plan to be in double digit market share.
How big is the target market in terms of revenue? Just curious. 10K units at €20K plus lenses for a double-digit market share would indicate around €1-2 billion? Of course it depends on how the target market is defined.
 

dfarkas

Workshop Member
I posted this over on LL, but thought it was of interest here, too:

There is a lot of focus on the downside for Leica with the "strategic alliance" being called off, but I think that a lot of people don't realize what this may mean for Phase One. Leica is/was their single largest C1 customer. Every D-Lux 4, D-Lux 4 Titanium, M8, and M8.2 ships with a licensed copy of C1. If we figure ~100,000 D-Lux 4s and ~35,000 M8/M8.2s (over the last 2 years), I'm sure that the amount Leica pays Phase for ~135,000 (or more) s/w licensees is not insignificant. This is additional revenue that could disappear in the future. I don't know the details of this deal or the "strategic alliance" that got canceled, but these things work both ways.

Leica's advantage is that the S2, just like the DMR and M8 before it, shoot in the non-proprietary DNG format. This allows almost any RAW processing s/w to work with S2 files off the shelf today. As to what Leica has planned for included s/w is anybody's guess right now. Back at PMA, there was already some discussion of working with Adobe or possibly developing something in-house, so I think Leica has known this relationship with Phase One wasn't really going to work out for some time now. Even back at Photokina in September, the S2 files were being demoed in Lightroom. For the LFI shoot in Germany a few months later, the photographer used Aperture to process his S2 files.

While we may never know all the reasons behind 1) the announcement at Photokina and 2) calling it off some months later, some things are clear.


Phase wanted Leica glass for their Phamiya system. This wasn't going to happen (Leica even said so back at Photokina). Why give away your greatest competitive edge?

Phase wanted to be able to sell the S2 through its sales channels. Again, since Photokina, Leica said that wasn't going to happen either. At PMA in March, the S2 product manager went on record with me that the S2 would only be sold and supported through Leica dealers.

Phase said that they were deeply involved with development of sensor, firmware, etc. on the S2. Leica refuted this 100% the day it was said. The information coming from Phase just wasn't jiving with Leica's reality.

With the S2 being in direct competition with Phase, there were concerns at Leica as to whether Phase would allow C1 to give optimal results for S2 files, or whether they might cripple it in some way.

On the Phase side of things, they don't want to help a clear competitor. Hasselblad, Sinar, and (until the the recent Phase/Leaf deal materializes) Leaf are unsupported in C1 for this reason. With the ZD, an agreement was struck with Mamiya that Phase dealers would have a one-month head start selling the new AFDIII ahead of Mamiya dealers, in exchange for C1 support. They would also be able to brand it for their own use. Clearly, the ZD, with older technology, was not a threat, so adding support for it in C1 was no big deal. The S2 is a different story. Incidentally, before that deal was struck between Mamiya and Phase, the ZD shipped with Lightroom bundled.​


Look, C1 is great software. I use it for most of my files. It is missing the Digital Asset Management abilities found Aperture and Lightroom, but I live with that limitation because I really like (and prefer) the quality of the files. If another solution will give me equal quality files, with the added benefit of DAM, I'll be a happy camper. We'll have to see what Leica announces in the coming weeks, but I for one am not surprised by the news. I'm only surprised it was not announced earlier.

David
 

robmac

Well-known member
The agreements re: C1 with non-S2 bodies remains intact. From CEO & Pres of P1 in BJP article:

"However, we still have an agreement for Leica's smaller cameras where Capture One can be used".

As to the comic-relief that was was so-called Leica-Phase alliance for the 15 minutes that it seemed real on 'the day'; I don't know who said/promised/expected what from whom, but it was the worst (public) example of corporate inter-company and company-to-public (mis)communications I've seen in some time -- and I've seen some doozies (from inside the conference room).

For those 15 minutes it looked like Leica was turning a new leaf: work with an established MF player re: distribution and S&S; putting aside their @#$%^ and self-defeating "not-invented-here" mantra by exploiting their glass in an established MF user base; and bundling the new body with one of the leading SW packages in the MF market.

Yup, things were looking smart - for the 15 minutes it took for the first conflicting info to rear it's head.

Their (very yummy) glass being a competitive edge? Give the current "Phase who?" aura around the S2, it's an edge IF and ONLY IF you leverage the potential lure of that advantage to the customer by absolutely minimizing ANY and ALL potential barriers between that potential customer's cheque book and an S2. Every digit in that body-only price, every doubt a customer has about workflow, S&S, dealer support, tech risk and every hesitation they have about the overcall cost/hassle of a switch very much dilutes the lure of that advantage. It would be interesting to see how many existing MF users switched between, or seriously contemplated switching between any of Phamiya/Hassy/Leaf simply because of the lenses.

The admirable tech of the camera and it's competitive potential (given the likely pricing) in what HAD been the MF market aside, IF Leica succeeds with the S2 it won't be from their trying to minimize the hurdles and risks facing it:

1. Use an established MF channel partner? Nope, will do it ourselves
2. Use an established MF player to help with our, ahem, S&S in a market where it's @#$% crucial? Nope, we'll do it ourselves.
3. Milk the #$% cash potential of our glass with existing MF users? Nope, the camera doesn't have a red dot on it.
3A. Exploit to the Nth degree possible the singular strategic advantage we have (our glass) by doing #3? Nope.
3B. Give existing MF users a 'cheap' gateway taste of what our glass can do, even on a 'lowly' Phamiya, as we build up S2 line? Nope, they can cough-up ~20K Euro for that privilege.
3C. Generate marketing buzz and eyes/hands-on exposure for the system via #1 & #3? Nope, who needs it?
3D. Lower the long-term switching risk for an existing Phamiya shooter but getting, over time, more Leica glass into their bags? Nope.
4. Have the bodies ship with a mainstay of the MF market's PP workflow (C1)? Nope - we'll do, uh, something else.
5. Introduce it at a price that will at least partially offset the risks an existing MF shooter will attach to a switch to a new entrant like us? Another (virtually certain) Nope.
6, 7, 8, 9..... etc, etc, etc

I'll say this, they've got the stones to go with their corporate ego. I just hope, as Hollywood put it years ago, they're not writing cheques that they can't cash, 'cause the downsides of this thing going sideways will be felt (IMHO) across the ENTIRE Leica user base.
 
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PeterA

Well-known member
10-20% of a 10,000 unit per annum market is 1-2000 units @ 20K per body and say 10K for 2 -3 lenses = $30- 60M in first year sales.

PS and btw Again another example of Phase hype re the alliance - they can now concentrate on the new Phamiya body - yee haaa

You get an initial big impact from a new system and a few lenses then a marked fall off in unit sales in each corresponding period. The extent of the fall off is all about the competitive dynamics of the industry and how they play out - no one stays still. But no one has nayhting new and exciting to sell anyway - sans 60 megapixels a nd a free 50 terrabyte hardisk to go with them...

Leica are going to have a big impact on the SLR end of the the MFD user base. For the DSLR shooter the lenses will be 'better' - the body at the margin more user friendly too.

from a technical camera users perspective Leica is irrelevant and their lens performance will be second rate compared to the top dogs anyway - so nothing of interest for me there bu t then again - so what - i am already set as far as that goes.

If I want a nice little snapshooter - well the M8 does that for me in spades.

if I want a 35mm SLR with lots megapixels and ordinary glass - well I can buy a CaNikonSon..

Tough times. I know though that IF I was buying into a big sensor for the first time and just wanted an SLR experience - and you know a bit of sexiness to go with it..well a nice camera looking camera like the S2 would be very tempting. Are there enough of me around? Now add the leica fanboy die hards - how many of them just have to have the Leica top dog camera?

I think that there is a merket there for the S2 and that price isnt as important as people suggest ( in teh first year) to the few thousand that will be interested in buying it. The canny buyer is so over the megapixel BS wars and mono dimensional marketing strategy employed by incumbents.

yep I am a buyer - if the thing works and I dont need a bandaid to hold it together whren the rubber band breaks.

As for software as in raw processing - it isnt a big deal - but please lets not talk Aperture as the best thing out there- that software is a joke.
 

Jorgen Udvang

Subscriber Member
I agree with Peter here. The traditional MF crowd is only a fraction of the market potential for the S2. For many SLR users, most MF cameras are big, clumsy things that they would rather not haul around. The S2 looks solid, they say that it's weather sealed, and it looks like it can take a beating. If I was upgrading to MF, it would be my choice. Price? They are all terribly expensive.

Saying that it won't sell, is like saying that a Porsche won't sell because it's more expensive than a Toyota and lacks the roominess of a Rolls Royce. It will sell. The question is if it will sell well enough to make a profit for Leica. I certainly hope it will.
 
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Oxide Blu

Guest
:thumbup: What Jorgen said.

'Nice' is nice, and nice to have, but the reality of owning, hauling, and paying for 'nice' things will take its toll. I don't think there is any unreal expectations of selling more S2 bodies than the industry demands. I think on the backside are folks that would have considered upgrading/changing over to S2 that will now sit tight and see how the economy develops -- or doesn't develop, before committing. The might have bought an S2 last year, but they won't this year -- not if they don't have to. Their negative impact on projected sales numbers could be significant in the near term. The folks that planned to buy the new system and still have the means and confidence in a reasonable return on that purchase are probably a lot smaller number today than when sales numbers were projected 2-years ago -- and smaller number still, tomorrow.
 
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wilsonlaidlaw

Guest
I feel that the ending of the Phase One relationship with Leica IS a serious problem. Even though DNG is an open format, getting good results from DNG conversion is not simple. For example C1 converts the DNG's from my Ricoh just like it does my M8 DNG's. Does it do a good job on the DNG's from the Ricoh - no it doesn't - they are as horrible as the M8's ones are excellent. Unfortunately Ricoh's relationship with Phase seems in the state that Leica is heading towards and it would appear there is no prospect of the Ricoh DNG's having full support. I have been using ACR 5.3 but that is clunky for batching and I have on someone else's recommendation, just downloaded Silkypix for use with the Ricoh, as Ricoh supplies no Mac conversion software with the camera. I am told Silkypix also works well on M8 files. I sure would like to just use one RAW converter. If S2 files are not good on C1 and I don't see why they should be and I want MF, I will probably buy a S/H Contax 645 and a refurbished Phase back. There is again now in the UK, good back up for 645 service from Alpha Digital (coincidentally also the agents for Ricoh), run by my old friend Frazer Allen, ex Kyocera-Zeiss UK.

Wilson
 

Tim

Active member
On another note, I think Leica should be making either or both a Leica Digital CM and a Leica Digital CL. But alas, it seems they have nothing planned under the M8 except likely a DLUX5.

Perhaps Sigma have set the bar too high in IQ with the DP2.
 

fotografz

Well-known member
I don't think of the S2 as a MF solution, or a 35mm replacement separately.

IMO, those designations are more or less carryovers from film days.

If we look at what Phase One is doing with pixel binning ... it begins to become clear that the potential of a single system meeting multiple needs is quite possible. "A single horse for different courses." It's obvious that Guy has been on the hunt for this for some time.

As stated by many, there is no substitute for a really small camera like a M8 (or whatever) ... and Tech/View cameras are in a category of their own ... both representing different ends of the spectrum ... specialized as they always have been.

What lies in between these two ends is where the S2 may make solid inroads. A replacement for Pro Canon/Nikon/Sony, and 22/31/33 MFD systems in one camera/system.

There are innumerable examples of shooters moving from high end 35mm digital to lower end MFD. In each case there is a trade off, and the shooter is forced to maintain two systems. Which is why I contend that it will be less a price issue (with-in reason), than it will be a performance criteria.

A Canon 1DsMKIII/Nikon D3X and set of pro lenses, AND a Hassey H3D-II/31 with HC lenses, or Phase One P30+ and solid set of D lenses can get quite pricy to maintain ... and a pita to have with you when you need the abilities of both.

It's quite conceivable that one could sink $45 to $60K into these two separate systems if doing so for semi-pro or pro work. That can put a different perspective on the S2 cost factor.

Leaving the unknown factor being just how well the S2 performs in the real world, and how many compromises one has to make compared to the 35mm DSLR/MFD solutions.

Just my 2¢ ... or in the case of Leica, my $2 worth ;)
 
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