R10: If we assume for the sake of argument one does happen, the 10s market is a narrow slice between the D3/X, 1DS3, etc., and MFDB kits. Premium price, uber premium glass, etc- we all know the dynamics.
The problem, unlike a x years ago, is that the camera's potential market is getting narrower and narrower - from bottom-up (as expected) but also now from the top-down.
As the price/performance curve accelerates downwards on DSLRs, the R10 has to be that much better in terms of IQ to justify a hefty premium over the D_ or 1D_ in terms of the hardware only - let alone to overcome aura surrounding their service/support structure vs that of Canon or Nikon. One could also argue that the D3 has introduced a new downward step-wise move in the higher-end DSLR price/performance expectation by customers. It has certainly poured some gas into the fire, which makes things that more difficult for ANY new entry.
Realistically, the SOLE advantage the R10 would have vs competition will be low-to-mid ISO level (safe assumption) IQ. Not fps, uber ISO or AF performance - but by delivering a MFDB-esque IQ advantage vs. what one can expect from existing top-drawer DSLRs.
The new twist is the apparent realization from MFD kit players that their easiest market share increases will come from looking DOWNWARD not upward as seen with 16-22 MP entry kits and large discounts on higher-end kits that in turn see more used gear released into the market.
In short, MF players look like they are pushing the concept of getting a high-end DSLR customer into the product line at a (relatively) painless entry point with the hope of keeping them as they move upstream. Entry MF kits also offer the advantage that used glass is plentiful and ranges from cheap (M645) to only modestly expensive (in Leica terms) and most can be used across platforms. Toss in optional extended warranties with back swaps during a mechanical crisis, a very professional dealer support structure (from what I see) and the compelling case for ANY uber-premium DSLR gets tougher and tougher.
Take the preceding and factor in the potential need to launch a line of new AF glass/system plus the hobbling of any teething issues with a craftsman-sized and SLOW service & support structure and the business case (and thus the financial/strategic wisdom to Leica) for any 'R10' gets worse with every passing quarter.
In short, there are the decisions that many of us, to varying degrees, would love to see vs. those that, in all reality, might better ensure that Leica, as we know it, will be around and thriving X years fwd.
