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Phase 60mpx MF back

woodyspedden

New member
I'll take that bet and I'll wager the same as Jack:)

That tentatively puts you on the hook for two steaks and two martinis
unless you're afraid :D

Mark
I'll also take the bet on the Dalsa. I think that, given both Dalsa and Kodak are fine technologists, it makes sense for Phase to differentiate themselves from Hassy by going with the alternate vendor (Dalsa). The Dalsa sensors, based on what I see from the Aptus backs, have a different look and feel from the Kodak sensors and I, for one, like that look. Having a Dalsa back available from Phase (I assume on a Phase/Mamiya body) will make things ever more interesting. And to think that a year ago MF looked like a problem child.

Great choices for us MFDB shooters.......Love it

Woody
 

KurtKamka

Subscriber Member
I wonder if it would lead to any more consolidation in the number of MFDB players ... consolidation can be a great way to increase market share.
 

LJL

New member
I wonder if it would lead to any more consolidation in the number of MFDB players ... consolidation can be a great way to increase market share.
Could happen, but for a while, it would be much better to increase market, rather than just fight over market share. With a bigger market, more money will probably be made than with just a bigger market share of a much smaller market. Would be interesting to see the numbers for some of this stuff.

LJ
 

LJL

New member
I believe you will see,in tomorrows official announcement to its dealer
network, that the sensor in the unofficial P65 will not be a Kodak
product.


Mark
O.K., but has anybody been able to confirm just what size the P65 is going to be? The P45 is not a 45MP sensor, but a 39MP, so is the P65 a 50MP or something else? Dalsa's would be leapfrogging Kodak if they put something bigger than 50MP out. Right now, they are a few MP behind on things (e.g., 33 v 39 as top end for Dalsa versus Kodak in the various backs that use each).

Anybody really know that can say, or do we just try to patiently wait for the announcements? (Hey, with Guy and Jack waiting on the delivery trucks impatiently, others can impatiently wait on news, I guess. A lot cheaper until we hit the "buy" button.)

LJ
 

fotografz

Well-known member
Heathy market despite the economy. Both Hasselblad and Phase did well last fiscial year :thumbup:

No intel on others.

News coming from Kodak yet. Something I predicted awhile ago has come true. :thumbdown:

The dealers/reps can break the news, since I promised not to tell :angel:
 

woodyspedden

New member
I wonder if it would lead to any more consolidation in the number of MFDB players ... consolidation can be a great way to increase market share.
Problem is that there is very little differentiation from one system to the other. So consolidation would primarily lead to better profitability through savings from getting rid of duplicate functions/workers. It would also lead to more R&D dollars/euros available even if the percentage of sales due to R&D went down slightly. Sales channels would be strengthened due to a larger portfolio of products for sale etc etc.

I think a more interesting play may be for someone like Phase or Hassy to buy Leica and dramatically expand the overall product portfolio. Leica management is weak and could be pretty much all replaced by the more competent folks in Sweden or Denmark. Software could be made compatible across the board and technologies could be lifted from the MFD world and ported to a 135 format. Use the R&D to bring out a very capable lower cost DRF and add the features to the M8 that are lacking. This would get more people into the Leica brand with the low cost entry and lead to a lot more lens sales and ultimately more M8's or whatever the high end DRF may be at that point leading to even more lens sales.

I mean that when you think about it there are only four players now in the MFDB market. Leaf and it's derivatives (Sinar Rollei etc), Phase, and Hasselblad. Phase or Hassy would have to buy Leaf to really make a bold move. This could eventually starve out Sinar and Rollei as they are dependent on Leaf for the backs. I am sure that they would migrate to Phase backs to stay alive but their overall position would be weakened.

As one who absorbed over six companies through M&A I can tell you that it is always a scary proposition. Successful mergers are not trivial exercises and unless you can extract a relatively dramatic value proposition (e.g. increasing your top line by 30% or more and driving down operating costs at least 15%) there is little point to the exercise.

I would feel differently if one of the potential merger candidates had disruptive technology which could increase your share of market short term through consolidation of top line revenues and long term share through deployment of the disruptive technology.

I just don't see the technology play in any of these companies. For instance Canon has a long term advantage over Nikon as a result of their having captive in house semiconductor technology for the image sensor markets. Nikon must continuously depend on others for their chips and of course some of their options e.g. Sony are already competitors. And Sony has the cash to stay in the game and could cut Nikon out at a critical time! Were one of the MFDB players to develop such in house technology, not just for the manufacturing savings, but for being able to get ahead and stay ahead in feature rich chips. At their current size it is hard to imagine any of the MFDB players getting into such a high risk venture. If one of them got 100% of the MFDB market it would not likely pay for the cost of entry into the semi manufacturing and development game.

So my desire, and my bet would be for Phase of Hassy to buy Leica and use their cash and stock to dramatically enhance their product portfolio.

Sorry for the long ramble but this is pretty much stream of conciousness thinking.

Woody
 

mtomalty

New member
P
I mean that when you think about it there are only four players now in the MFDB market. Leaf and it's derivatives (Sinar Rollei etc), Phase, and Hasselblad. Phase or Hassy would have to buy Leaf to really make a bold move. This could eventually starve out Sinar and Rollei as they are dependent on Leaf for the backs. I am sure that they would migrate to Phase backs to stay alive but their overall position would be weakened.
Woody
Woody

I don't believe you are correct in your breakdown.
As far as I know,Sinar and Rollei are in no way 'derivatives' of Leaf.
The Leaf brand is a property of Kodak by virtue of an acquisition of
Creo some years ago.
Nor are Sinar or Rollei dependant upon Leaf for backs.

Mark
 

mtomalty

New member
Problem is that with Phase product numbering system a P65+ may indeed be a 50 Mpx chip or could be larger.

We'll all know,for sure,tomorrow but I have been told by someone in
the know that the sensor will be 60Mp and will be,for all intents and
purposes,full frame 645.
Of course,just because I believe my source it doesn't make it a reality
until an official announcement is made

Mark
 

PeterA

Well-known member
i am waiting for the 100000 megapixel back - where the companies throw in a free Ferrari and the state of Texas with each order.
 
D

dlew308

Guest
forget the free cars and states, i want the free models Sinar loans out ;)


i am waiting for the 100000 megapixel back - where the companies throw in a free Ferrari and the state of Texas with each order.
 

woodyspedden

New member
i am waiting for the 100000 megapixel back - where the companies throw in a free Ferrari and the state of Texas with each order.
Good Lord Peter, why would you consider the state of Texas a worthwhile upgrade? LOL

Most folks here (USA) would like to forget both George Bush and the whole state of Texas which he apparently owns.

Best to you mate
Woody
 

woodyspedden

New member
Woody

I don't believe you are correct in your breakdown.
As far as I know,Sinar and Rollei are in no way 'derivatives' of Leaf.
The Leaf brand is a property of Kodak by virtue of an acquisition of
Creo some years ago.
Nor are Sinar or Rollei dependant upon Leaf for backs.

Mark
Mark

I am probably wrong so I apologize if I have unintentionally mislead anyone. It would seem though that the Leaf, Sinar, and Rollei backs are all supplied from one source. The Kodak sensors, while all the same, are customized by Phase and Hasselblad to maximize their intended purposes (In the opinion of both Phase and Hassy as they see it!).

I am looking at all of this from the simple perspective of what are the real differences (and thus the differentiation) of the backs one to another? I truly believe that all of these backs are capable of current world class imaging and will only get better into the future as Kodak, Dalsa and perhaps others continue to get better and better.

As image makers the biggest issue in my opinion is that we are now depreciating MFDB's that are in the price range of some pretty neat cars in a very short period or being left behind. Those who bought P45 or P25 only a year or so ago are now buying into P45+ and P25+ for a large premium. (By the way I am not picking on Phase because certainly the same applies to Hasselbald on their backs and Leaf with their 75 and 75S etc. The fact is that back technology is moving at lightspeed and each iteration is a significant amount of chump change for the user! LOL

On the other hand what we can now achieve with the new techology is simply beyond what our imaginations saw a year or two ago! Give the guys at Kodak and Dalsa credit, they have produced what we all wanted and basically disbelieved to be possible so short a time ago.

Love what we can do now and have no biases towards one manufacturer vs another in any way.

Best to all

Woody
 

Stuart Richardson

Active member
Mark

I am probably wrong so I apologize if I have unintentionally mislead anyone. It would seem though that the Leaf, Sinar, and Rollei backs are all supplied from one source.
Yes, I'm pretty sure you are wrong about this. At least, wrong in the sense that the Epson RD-1 is the same as a Nikon D70 or the M8 and the DMR are the same camera. Yes, Sinar and Leaf both use Dalsa sensors, but only the sensors are the same. Every other component of the backs is different. Very much so -- it is not just the screens and interface, but the hardware that reads the information of the sensor and everything else. It would be like saying that a Hasselblad and Holga are the same camera because you can put Tri-X in both (not to imply that one is a hasselblad or a holga!).

Oh, and Rollei does not make backs. At least, not digital backs. They do make film backs.
Please don't take this as harsh, I just wanted to set the record straight here.

As for the 60mp 645...well, it will be interesting to see. If it is true, then there will probably be some major workflow issues to get through. The RAW files from it will be huge, and that will effect everything from the camera storage media to the computer, to the card reader and on to the final storage method. It will be interesting to see how todays lenses hold up to it as well. I don't even want to think about the price...
 

PeterA

Well-known member
I didnt see Woody's post above. Here is my take on teh cmpetitive landscape FWIW

All these MFD back manufacturers are relatively tiny cottage industry players - competing in a relatively tiny market. So weak are their balance sheets that they outsource pretty much everything in the manufacturing value added curve. That is to say they already run lean and mean. Therefore mergers would deliver not much in marginal utilities from synergies and the wrong mergers may actually backfire.

I think that their worst enemy is their own relatively short product life cycles - the winners being the chip manufacturers. Teh chip makers must laugh to see each scramble to adopt the latest gee wizz megapixel 'upgrade' - kind of forcing each into upgrading or losing precious market share.

I suspect that the chip makers leave enough margin to keep these companies in business - and not enough to allow them much more elbow room.

Leaving aside the fan boy excitement that greets each new announcement - I suspect that the actual market in sustainable profit terms has to be declining. If the market was 'interesting' from an investment point of view - you would have Canon et al all over it like ugly on ape.

If they were listed I would short them. Regarding Leica - they used to make very nice film cameras.
 

docmoore

Subscriber and Workshop Member
Peter,

I agree with the assessment above...however changing out a chip would not seem like that big of a deal. Really, how much different are the present backs from those of a couple of years ago. Maybe a slightly improved screen but many of the support functions for the back may not be that different. So you can hype interest with a little change of imaging chip.

Most of the chip R&D is shouldered by Kodak or Dalsa so the back manufacturers need only modest changes in architecture to accomodate the new chip. It would be nice if some forward thinking were involved as demonstrated by Apple in the PC realm. They tend to push the envelope in an effort to stay at the forward edge of the curve.

Dynamic range, signal to noise ratio, color fidelity get short shrift while the ever enlarging pixel number is tantamount to sales. Have you noticed how much bandwidth has been consumed since the new announcements in the past week on this site and others? One wonders what would happen if the back manufacturers really did something truly innovative.

Consider a back that overlayed grid lines in classic, rule of thirds, or user defined layers that would correct for axis and horizontal disymmetry on the fly. Or a hardware based capture that would allow multiple inflection points for automatic depth of field stacking. Or how about one that did more than give a historical histogram based on JPG but one in real time based on raw data with suggestions to improve dynamic range for capture.

The present paradigm is somewhat analogous to the old auto industry...add fins or a bigger engine but keep the old design structure. Although I own a H3DII back I was amused by the recent sliding back adapter. Kind of an admission of difficulty using H3D back on other platforms due to the integral battery/body situation...in fact, after seeing that I cancelled an Alpa TC order as I am unwilling to deal with multiple cables etc.

It seems that we are at a point where it would behoove us to learn how to best utilize the tools we have than to assume that what they market next week or next Photokina will change our art...or in my poor practice my therapy.

Bob
 
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