The S2 PMA with David Farkas

[Stuart Richardson]

Even with the current economic difficulties aside, it seems like now the pace of the megapixel wars is slowing down a bit. Pixel size can only get so much smaller before it starts to interfere in major ways with the integrity of the signal. We have had 39mp packs in medium format and 16+mp full frame 35mm chips for a few years now, and we have not moved leaps and bounds beyond that yet. I think 40mp is going to be a completely acceptable file size for quite a time to come! I would assume at least 3-4 years before it started to get clearly outclassed. The Phase One P45 was released in December 2005 and though the back has been upgraded, the sensor is basically the same -- still one of the best you can buy 3+ years later.
I don't think Leica is trying to compete as being the highest resolution offering, but rather to field the most well rounded camera in the larger than 35mm arena. Sacrificing that last bit of resolution for a smaller camera body and lenses, faster performance and better ISO performance. Or at least that's the idea...we'll see how it goes.

 

[Guy Mancuso]

40mgs is fine for me . My wall is speed both in shooting speed and I could use that clean ISO 1600. That is if I stay with a one system approach. If I went and bought a DSLR than that would do it and I could stay pat. This has been my mental nightmare on deciding how i want to tackle this. The other thing is money, now is not the time for big outlays of cash. So whatever is the cheapest approach maybe the one i will have to take even if it is not a perfect approach.

 

[carstenw]

Well, there is no indication that this body will be any more expensive than just a back of the same resolution, so I guess that is your answer: because it wouldn't be cheaper, and would be harder to make. I consider this solid reasoning. The extra interface, the need to use an increasingly older body with the newest sensors with no possibility of upgrading the electronics in an affordable fashion, the whinging of the owners of the older bodies complaining about lacking speed or compatibility in the future, the possibility of someone else coming in and making an optional back, cutting Leica off from this most lucrative part of the system sale, the extra tolerance requirements (and I am sure that with the higher-spec'ed lenses comes a higher demand on tolerance throughout the system), the battery question, and so on, and I think it is clear why this is the best solution, for Leica's intended market.

About the only two things about the S2 which are problems are the smaller sensor area (but not that much smaller, and this difference gains advantages like size and speed), and the fact that you cannot use the sensor on a tech camera. The latter is really not the market for the S2, and the 30mm T/S lens should take care of casual needs in that direction.

 

[Guy Mancuso]

Lenses Carsten look at the price of a new M lens and if there is any indication the S lenses will be on the same level ( doubt it) or more ( more likely). This thing is not coming in cheap and please please make me dead wrong leica. LOL

 

[Stuart Richardson]

My guess would be 3000 for the standard lens, 5000 for the normal wides and teles and 8000 for the specialty lenses. I hope I am wrong and they are cheaper, but why would they be given Leica's past?

 

[robertwright]

leica has an uphill battle to reorient the market wrt placing investment in the glass vs. investment in the mfdb.

the marketplace has taken advantage of the buyer behaviour and credit by charging whopping dollars for mfdb's, saying they have to cover their end on lower unit sales....yeah, right. then Hassy lowered prices 50%. come on, I think margins were shall we say, "healthy"...

there is something of a ponzi scheme there

I think for a long time we have forgotten that photography is an optical phenomenon primarily (camera obscura anyone) and all this emphasis on technology is somewhat misplaced.

 

[Forrest Black]

I don't wish to rain on Leica's parade but David's blog does not exactly warm the cockles of my heart. Thanks for the blog anyway, David.

As I read on and on, it appears to me that the S2 has the worst attributes of both the DSLRs and MFDBs systems, and not their strengths. Low ISO in a DSLR form factor with no movements and a 3-lens kit to start one off and no wide-angle at that. It is hardly the system, and I am using this word in its loosest sense, to replace both the Canon/Nikon and the Hasselblad H3DII or PhaseOne/Mamiya.

No business maven I but I give the S2 twelve months before Leica throws in the towel on it, especially given the current financial situation worldwide. Just like the Hy6 before it, the S2 looks good on paper and has its admirers but nobody seems to be willing to put his money where his mouth is. And hence the Hy6 is history. I don't see the S2 as having a greater fighting chance than the Hy6.The R10 maybe but the S2 will be stillborn.

 

[Lars]

The more I think of the concept and the market strategy behind S2 the more I like it. There is a possibility for Leica to extend and strengthen its brand name here, and they might actually pull it off. If they settled for 30MP then Canon/Nikon would soon be breathing down their neck, whereas this larger sensor and Leica glass should yield IQ that the Japanese just can't touch.

Even if S2 sales likely will be low due to price point, the Leica brand will be strengthened. A stronger brand - even seen as a leader in digital - could then boost sales of M series. I don't think that could have been accomplished by the M series alone, there are too many challenges in making a fulllframe digital M series, as seen in the initial problems with the M8.

 

[paulmoore]

I don't wish to rain on Leica's parade but David's blog does not exactly warm the cockles of my heart. Thanks for the blog anyway, David.

As I read on and on, it appears to me that the S2 has the worst attributes of both the DSLRs and MFDBs systems, and not their strengths. Low ISO in a DSLR form factor with no movements and a 3-lens kit to start one off and no wide-angle at that. It is hardly the system, and I am using this word in its loosest sense, to replace both the Canon/Nikon and the Hasselblad H3DII or PhaseOne/Mamiya.

No business maven I but I give the S2 twelve months before Leica throws in the towel on it, especially given the current financial situation worldwide. Just like the Hy6 before it, the S2 looks good on paper and has its admirers but nobody seems to be willing to put his money where his mouth is. And hence the Hy6 is history. I don't see the S2 as having a greater fighting chance than the Hy6.The R10 maybe but the S2 will be stillborn.

if you had any stock investments in 2005 did you sell and buy gold?
I'm just curious to your crystal ball capabilities here and whether I should sit up and pay close attention to your forecasting.
btw the hy6 looks good in the flesh too not just on paper.. and same as the S2.. it is beyond the paper stage..not sure if you can write off them off yet.

 

[Forrest Black]

No stock investments at all. I don't punt.

I am sure you bought into the Hy6 system, didn't you, Paul? Or are you just an admirer? Were the Flektogon and the 90-degree viewfinder ever delivered?

My crystal ball says that you should buy into C now and hold. You will thank me in 2010.

Who makes better cars: Sant'agata or Maranello?

 

[paulmoore]

no I have not bought a hy6..I am still shooting with my rolleis, and yes I do admire them.
but does that fact make them not viable? I am on the back half of my career..I have spent hundreds of thousands in equipment in the past 25 years..but if I was a young punk I would have invested in the hy6 system.. it just came out a couple years late for me. sorry I don't get the car reference.. I like my chevy pickup though if that helps...you did put out there a strong prediction and I don't see you defending it but just questioning me.. fine my cards are on the table.

 

[robmac]

On paper the specs look great and I'd love to see one under the Xmas tree, but:

1. Lets assume price is roughly $15,000 body only
2. All specs come out as intended/wished for (e.g. it's not a paper tiger)

In a ugly global recession in a market where hardware churns every 18 mos and depreciates like a rock off a cliff, we have an (as yet released) $15,000+ large-frame, fixed-MP/sensor DSLR + UBER (and very limited initially) SPENDY glass. This from a firm infamous for glacial S&S, possessing limited financial backing, demonstrative of very slow model churn, MINISCULE (relative) production volumes, an iffy history in digital bodies and NO presence in rental houses.

The so-called alliance w/Phase was a Marx Bros routine re: it's announcement and who is/isn't doing what and was either: a)DOA and simply someone's wishful thinking or b) so premature in its development that NOTHING can be assumed by it - good or bad.

On the S2's underside (market-wise) we have at least three quality 24+MP FF DSLRs that range from 20% to at worst 1/2 the price (body only) of the S2 from players with vastly superior distribution, S&S, products to recover R&D from and resources -- and in the case of N&C, a large rental base and a HUGE selection of usable glass. A DSLR ain't a MFDB, but todays market for photo services isn't last years.

From the top the S2 is bordered by two price-competitive and market-experienced 800 lb Gorillas (H and M/P) and a couple of smaller players - one of whom is all but dead (with more likely to follow). These existing players also posses switchable backs, film capability, a large market of used and refurb backs, much larger lens selections (AF and MF), better S&S and utter domination of the MFDB rental market.

A further unknown is what, if any truth there are to the rumors that Nikon (and/or Canon) may do something in the S2's "tweener" market with a > FF DSLR.

In both markets bordering the S2, the cost/MP is dropping like a rock (relative to old paradigms in each market) and customers are continually demanding (and requiring) more for less.

Leica COULD pull it off, and I understand why Leica is pushing this market vs the eat-your-young DSLR segment but given current conditions and their history, they are going to need to avoid ANY (and I mean ANY) missteps or the S2 will be dead (taking any hope of an R10 with it) before it even has a chance to prove it's merit.

 

[Forrest Black]

You said it much better than I could, Rob.

Paul is going to ask you for stock-picks next. :lol:

 

[robmac]

Nah, did that for a living (stock analyst) years ago. Blackberry surgically implanted, frequent flier miles pouring out of pockets, resisting temptation 5/day to choke the living $%^ out of pension mangers who were long XYZ Inc but didn't know the firm's products/markets from a hole in the ground, rampant caffeine addiction, ruined liver... ah, good times.

 

[Ben Rubinstein]

How much does a H3DII-39 cost these days with comparible lenses? Just wondering if the pluses are enough to pursuade people with more versatile systems to look at it. If the 'blad's get that one iso upgrade to give a useable iso 800, and if I'm not wrong that the 'blad is cheaper, is in all the rental shops, is well broken in and can be used with technical cameras, why not either choose that or stick with it?

 

[Guy Mancuso]

Ben I think ( David from Hassy can correct me) that a H3II 39 with 80mm and back is about 22k new

 

[robmac]

IIRC the H3II 39 was going to be the benchmark by which Leica was going to set price (given S2 is 37.5MP). If so, project out what the 39 will be say in 6-9 mos and there is the S2 - in theory anyway.

 

[paulmoore]

You said it much better than I could, Rob.

Paul is going to ask you for stock-picks next. :lol:

yeah, he is pretty smart and I am always open to smart guys..shoots a dmr too so I know I should listen close.

The unknown that you have not figured on is that while people are not standing in line to invest in the existing mf systems.. there is a professional need out there for images that exceed 35mm ff ...and the fact that the top 3% of photographers will be able to pop for a new camera if it enhances their look.. the top 3% of workers are going to float the us gov. so I think the top 3 of the photoindustry can make the s2 do-able..
but I, like you really don't know s__! and it is all just guessing,wishing and hoping, depending on what side of the fence you are on.

 

[Guy Mancuso]

But leica should not compare prices to the H3 39 but the H3 31 which is basically the same sensor and that comes in new at 17k

 

[Forrest Black]

But leica should not compare prices to the H3 39 but the H3 31 which is basically the same sensor and that comes in new at 17k

Yeah, compare 4:3 aspect ratio and the S2 comes up to 32.89MP.