S
Shelby Lewis
Guest
yeah... just pullin' your chain 
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More Price Wars?
- Thread starter fotografz
- Start date
KeithL
Well-known member
Thanks Pete, much appreciated.
Stephen,
Jono's quote is applicable if folks are buying on price only. In this particular case of Hassy v. Leica S2, there are other components to consider also. The S2 has not been priced yet, nor is it a completed system, while the H3DII-31 is a serious entry point system that may now be priced near its probable base, unless, as some have suggested, Hassy is looking to clear stocks to create a new playing field for the higher end stuff. (I really do not see that part, as I think it critical to have an entry point MF, and the H3DII-31 is Hassy's highest ISO performer to date, plus still above the DSLR top end.)
Whether it will be available for less in a few months remains to be seen. Personally, I am waiting not so much for prices to drop, though that is a great thing to see, but more to see just where the S2 is going to come out onto the market. If Leica blows it and prices it too high, as they tend to do with most of their stuff, there will be even more folks NOT buying it when they can get into a proven and complete system at this price point. Hassy has made yet another bold and preemptive move here. If I had just bought a new one a few months ago, I may be a bit unhappy, as happened when they first started this price war. However, at this point, I think things may be nearer their bottoms on prices, and one could take advantage and use great gear for all those months while waiting for something else to come to market. It really does depend on how one looks at things, I guess....wait and do not use, therefore missing opportunities, or buy and start to use, thus maybe creating enough opportunity to pay for the differences that may come around. (This is with respect to pros that use this stuff for making money. Folks just wanting to get into MF might keep watching and hoping for more price drops, as there are fewer lost opportunities that may matter.)
Just more thinking on this.
LJ
jonoslack
Active member
Oh, I think it's applicable on anything in a falling market. If the kit you really want cost $20,000 6 months ago, and now it costs $14,000 it's only human nature to think that it might be $12,000 in another few months. As Guy says, business is difficult, and the idea that you can put off that decision profitably will encourage a lot of people to put it off.
I think that only the people who really need an MF kit NOW are going to jump at these prices (and they probably would have bought at the old prices too).
Added to which, it DOES piss off existing users if the thing they borrowed lots of money to buy just a few short months ago is suddenly up for sale for a lot less money. It leaves a bad feeling.
I can see that the S2 is going to be priced too high for most working pros (I certainly get the vibe around here) - I'd guess that Leica are reckoning they can sell quite a few kits at a high margin to collectors and the rich enthusiasts in the first instance.
Remember, if it costs $10,000 to make and you sell it for $10,500 you have to sell 20 times as many as if you sell it for $20,000 - more than that really as you have all the extra distribution and support costs.
I'm not suggesting that this is good, or that it means that the S2 will be a success, but I'm doubting whether they're seeing the current MF users as their main marketplace. Added to which I'm not sure that continually dropping prices on an expensive product is likely to have a huge positive effect on profits in a deflating market.
Dale Allyn
New member
A price drop from $20,000 to $14,000 is meaningful, but another "possible" drop from $14,000 to $12,000 in three months should be of only marginal interest IF one is buying for business. First, there's a bit of a ramping-up spell with any new system, even if it's one you've used before. But more importantly, if one can't see the $700 per month in price drop coming back, then one may want to reevaluate the purchase in the first place. That's only $175 per week in price drop which would need to be recovered, and that doesn't factor in new business opportunities and positioning due to the new kit.
My point is simply that in all things digital, waiting for a price drop has serious side effects which may dilute one's savings. This we all understand. In times like these, it can be difficult to find the line, pull the trigger and then make it pay off.
Looking forward to the exit from this dumper of an economy.
My point is simply that in all things digital, waiting for a price drop has serious side effects which may dilute one's savings. This we all understand. In times like these, it can be difficult to find the line, pull the trigger and then make it pay off.
Looking forward to the exit from this dumper of an economy.
jonoslack
Active member
Well, at least we can all agree about that!Looking forward to the exit from this dumper of an economy.
9K would be nice. Even nicer if someone gave me one. IMO, neither is likely
But, hey, you never know.In fact, I could wait for a better deal ... forever. There's a real cost savings ... just shop and buy nothing :thumbs: ... which is my favorite sport right now ... :ROTFL:
The S2 cost will most likely be in the lenses anyway ... and that has never once in all of Leica's history been "inexpensive" (i.e., 6K for a manual focus 21/24/1.4 and 10K for a Noctilux :wtf
But we've been over this a lot already. The S2 will remain a window shopping item in this studio until business improves a whole lot, and stays that way for awhile ... that is, if the thing even makes it to market.Another smart move by Hassy. Narrow the gap between upper-end DSLRs and the MFDB gateway drug, get'm in the door and then move them up the stack. It also makes life tough for F&H and makes nervous F&H users (or those thinking of F&H) think longer and harder about switching. Stirs the market up between themselves and Phamiya.
It also forces the S2 team to eventually move their entry price to even more unappetizing levels (to Leica) - or (more likely) open up such gap between the S2 and other offerings (assuming Phamiya counters the Hassy offers) that it makes the S2 an untenable business decision and more of a premium-priced boutique item for Leicaphiles wanting to shoot MF.
Leica's problem re: S2 pricing are two fold:
1. They publicly linked the S2 (price) to the Hassy 31 - and likely didn't think of "what if Hassy..." at the time. Not a deal-killer, but embarrassing if they have to back-pedal.
2. They'll be shipping start-up level volumes (high fully loaded cost/unit) of a product that was developed with last years material cost/parts supply contracts and forecasted margins at (if they stay the course) what are now DRASTICALLY lower prices. Not a fun place to be.
A DSLResque pricing and depreciation curve has finally come to the MFDB market - which is probably fitting as the cameras become more and more DSLR-like in their integration.
It also forces the S2 team to eventually move their entry price to even more unappetizing levels (to Leica) - or (more likely) open up such gap between the S2 and other offerings (assuming Phamiya counters the Hassy offers) that it makes the S2 an untenable business decision and more of a premium-priced boutique item for Leicaphiles wanting to shoot MF.
Leica's problem re: S2 pricing are two fold:
1. They publicly linked the S2 (price) to the Hassy 31 - and likely didn't think of "what if Hassy..." at the time. Not a deal-killer, but embarrassing if they have to back-pedal.
2. They'll be shipping start-up level volumes (high fully loaded cost/unit) of a product that was developed with last years material cost/parts supply contracts and forecasted margins at (if they stay the course) what are now DRASTICALLY lower prices. Not a fun place to be.
A DSLResque pricing and depreciation curve has finally come to the MFDB market - which is probably fitting as the cameras become more and more DSLR-like in their integration.
Why the assumption that the S2 is tied to the H3DII-31 kit for price? Actually, it falls somewhere between the -31 and -39 backs from Hassy. It has a smaller sensor with projected higher ISO capabilities more like the -31, yet it sports 37+MP, which is closer to the -39. So, in some respects, it still is in between, but fixed body/finder. It also is sporting both FP and LS features, which we see only glimmers of from F&H and Phamiya. So, it still is a bit different animal that looks and may work more like a DSLR.
At this point, I do agree that the folks at Leica are having heartburn and sleepless nights over this sort of aggressive move by Hassy. The best they can hope for at this point it to splash broadly with a killer low price for a limited time to also get folks in the door and on their way. Not sure even that sort of strategy will work. The more folks that get any other MF kit before the S2 comes out, the harder it will be for Leica to make inroads, even if the camera is flawless from the start (not a lot of folks holding breath on that one, I do not think).
LJ
At this point, I do agree that the folks at Leica are having heartburn and sleepless nights over this sort of aggressive move by Hassy. The best they can hope for at this point it to splash broadly with a killer low price for a limited time to also get folks in the door and on their way. Not sure even that sort of strategy will work. The more folks that get any other MF kit before the S2 comes out, the harder it will be for Leica to make inroads, even if the camera is flawless from the start (not a lot of folks holding breath on that one, I do not think).
LJ
My bad, IIRC you're right, they (Leica) indicated indicated that intro pricing would be roughly comparable to the 39, not the 31.
The S2 is a different animal to the norm, but the reverse is true as well. Some will love the smaller size and FP and LS glass, etc. etc. Others will prefer an established MF vendor, the virtually assured better pricing, the ability to move up sensor size w/o replacing cameras, etc, etc.
The FP and LS lens advantage is real - for as long as Hassy doesn't offer a FP body - or Phamiya LS glass. It is also contingent on Leica of course getting the lens portfolio filled out quickly - and a prices that won't cause aneurisms.
The S2 is a different animal to the norm, but the reverse is true as well. Some will love the smaller size and FP and LS glass, etc. etc. Others will prefer an established MF vendor, the virtually assured better pricing, the ability to move up sensor size w/o replacing cameras, etc, etc.
The FP and LS lens advantage is real - for as long as Hassy doesn't offer a FP body - or Phamiya LS glass. It is also contingent on Leica of course getting the lens portfolio filled out quickly - and a prices that won't cause aneurisms.
Steve Hendrix
Well-known member
With my biased binoculars on, I see this move by Hasselblad as no big deal. Essentially, they are only making a price adjustment to meet the pricing of their competitors:
Mamiya/Leaf DL-28: $14,999
Phase One P31+/Phase One Camera Kit: $16,990 (P31+ for $14,990 can go on any medium format camera)
Hasselblad H3DII-31 Kit: $14,995
Also, we have begun the Phase One Plus Refurb Program, where P30+ refurbished units go for $11,990.
Someone tell me what the big deal is? Or maybe we're not shouting out our pricing loudly enough? :clap:
Steve Hendrix
Phase One
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Leica's primary early adopters aren't just anxious enthusiasts, but rental studios. The rental market is huge and perfect for these perilous financial times. Instead of plunking down for a whole system, rent it for a job and bill it to the client. The flexibility of LS/FPS, faster speed, weather-sealing, compact size, and ease of operation make the S2 a perfect match for rental and fashion. I can tell you in my market (Miami), rental is still going strong. Once photographers start to use the system at rental, they will see the advantages and that in turn drives the pro market. This has worked exceptionally well for companies like Profoto.
My take on all this is that regardless of a "banner year" at Hassy and however good or bad things are at Phase, everyone is hurting now. Canon sales are down 82% from last year, 5dMkII included. I think that the only way these companies are trying to be competitive is to just rehash the same gear and keep lowering the price. We can see how well that has worked out so far for Leaf. And, to agree with Jono, it really leaves a bad taste in customers that bought into these systems 6 months ago, or worse, a year ago.
As far as I know, Leica is the only company right now that is investing heavily in R&D to develop new cameras (like the S2) and keep on the cutting edge of lens design, while everyone else rides the holding pattern just trying to survive. When the economy turns around Leica will be well positioned as a market leader with truly forward-thinking products. They are also much better diversified, with revenue streams from the M-system, digital compacts, and sport optics. When you are a company that just makes digital backs and people stop buying/upgrading backs, you have nothing else to sell. As the revenue slows, there is nothing left for R&D. Without real R&D progress you fall behind and will eventually lose market share. I just can't see anyone being able to afford to develop a from-the-ground-up camera to compete with the S2, especially in this economic climate. The H system took about 15 million Euro to develop back in 2002 if my memory serves me correctly. How much has really changed from the H1 to H3DII? I don't know the costs involved with developing the Mamiya 645AF back in 1999, but how different is the 645DF from the 645AF, ten years later? Bottom line is that developing an entirely new platform is very pricey. Leica has ponied up approx. 30 million Euro in the last 18 months for R&D. That is a serious investment in the future and I'd guess equal to some MFD player's entire annual revenue.
I wouldn't underestimate Leica's ability to deliver on the S2. I also won't underestimate Phase and Hassy's will to survive and willingness to do whatever it takes to get through these rocky times.
Just my 1.5 cents (the effects of price deflation are everywhere!)
David
My take on all this is that regardless of a "banner year" at Hassy and however good or bad things are at Phase, everyone is hurting now. Canon sales are down 82% from last year, 5dMkII included. I think that the only way these companies are trying to be competitive is to just rehash the same gear and keep lowering the price. We can see how well that has worked out so far for Leaf. And, to agree with Jono, it really leaves a bad taste in customers that bought into these systems 6 months ago, or worse, a year ago.
As far as I know, Leica is the only company right now that is investing heavily in R&D to develop new cameras (like the S2) and keep on the cutting edge of lens design, while everyone else rides the holding pattern just trying to survive. When the economy turns around Leica will be well positioned as a market leader with truly forward-thinking products. They are also much better diversified, with revenue streams from the M-system, digital compacts, and sport optics. When you are a company that just makes digital backs and people stop buying/upgrading backs, you have nothing else to sell. As the revenue slows, there is nothing left for R&D. Without real R&D progress you fall behind and will eventually lose market share. I just can't see anyone being able to afford to develop a from-the-ground-up camera to compete with the S2, especially in this economic climate. The H system took about 15 million Euro to develop back in 2002 if my memory serves me correctly. How much has really changed from the H1 to H3DII? I don't know the costs involved with developing the Mamiya 645AF back in 1999, but how different is the 645DF from the 645AF, ten years later? Bottom line is that developing an entirely new platform is very pricey. Leica has ponied up approx. 30 million Euro in the last 18 months for R&D. That is a serious investment in the future and I'd guess equal to some MFD player's entire annual revenue.
I wouldn't underestimate Leica's ability to deliver on the S2. I also won't underestimate Phase and Hassy's will to survive and willingness to do whatever it takes to get through these rocky times.
Just my 1.5 cents (the effects of price deflation are everywhere!
)David
Steve Hendrix
Well-known member
Yes, Marc, not pointing any comments at you, just some of the general remarks to follow and actually emphasizing your point.
Steve Hendrix
Phase One
Good point on the response to Mamiya/Leaf... Had to stop and check some other forums as a reminder of the recent Phase/Mamiya/Leaf combo moves
I will say that Steve your thoughts on not shouting out your pricing moves enough might have merit. The Hassy announcements seem to stir up more commentary/stick in the frontal lobe more prominently on various forums when they're made. Hassy pushes out such announcements quite broadly via direct email, to Victor subscribers (such as myself), on their home page, etc. In short, they make a move, everyone knows it.
I will say that Steve your thoughts on not shouting out your pricing moves enough might have merit. The Hassy announcements seem to stir up more commentary/stick in the frontal lobe more prominently on various forums when they're made. Hassy pushes out such announcements quite broadly via direct email, to Victor subscribers (such as myself), on their home page, etc. In short, they make a move, everyone knows it.
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M
Mort54
Guest
These price drops, by all the MF players, smell like desperation to me. The same desperation that is causing GM to offer $6K rebates and no interest for 60 months. Anything to stave off collapse. Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic, but the MF companies wouldn't be offering these kinds of price discounts if they weren't in dire straights.
woodyspedden
New member
Steve
I wonder what you would be saying if you were still "selling" Hasselblad as you were six months ago. Pretty disingenuous if you ask me (although in point of fact no one asked me)
Woody
How about he's wearing a different hat and now has a different point of view?
S
Shelby Lewis
Guest
You obviously don't know Steve very well? Although not a personal acquaintance of mine, he's always (and I mean always) been incredibly helpful and forthright in all dealings with me (ie three years of my waffling about MF digital).
He stated nothing but the facts above.... PLUS made it clear who he works for.
What else do you need from him? (righteous indignation doesn't suite you very well)
Shelby