David Grover / Phase One
New member
Way off there. More than 200 for us.
Is the 1100 for Leica all in the camera division? Or spread across Geo systems, binos etc etc?
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Leaf moves manufacture to China?
- Thread starter evgeny
- Start date
Is the 1100 for Leica all in the camera division? Or spread across Geo systems, binos etc etc?
I believe the 1100 is across all divisions and not just cameras David.
carstenw
Active member
The 1100 as it relates to the company's diversification is relevant to the ability to survive, and so it is the better number to compare in this case. For innovation compared to Hasselblad and others in the camera field, the number of employees of the camera division would be more interesting. David, do you know how many employees there are in the camera division?
PeterA
Well-known member
Hasselblad is owned by a private family owned trading company with a very diversified portfolio of businesses and based in HK. Sinar ( the other one that wont go away ) is part of a large group of companies called Jenoptic. Phase One is ..umm..( 'owned' by management?? ) cant comment on whether it is self financed or whether the MBO had private equity backing. I cant even say wether the software isnt a separate profit center or has its own separate business co-licensing the brand name.
Do a Porter Analysis on the Industry structure and some undergad economics with a touch of basic accounting - all the answers are text book and inevitable..
From a customers point of view - make hay whilst the sun shines boys...you better be a professional who can depreciate the 'use' in terms of tax dollars ( quite a silly mindset really) Or a well heeled eccentric with the discretionary income to make such a purchase in flimflammery -MFD is cool , cutting edge and powerful so its worth the outlay -but its a consumable with some kudos/functionality..( another silly mindset)
Leaving aside issues to do with 'rationalisation of product purchase' - irrespective of market segment or segmentation - any way you cut it..every consumer demographic is feeling the squeeze in terms of total cash-flow going into their bank account - the pain is being felt everywhere.
MFD is discretionary expenditure - just like anything else really..and it lies at the high end of expenditure which has a very very elastic demand curve. MFD back makers have been focusing on harvesting every nook and cranny of potential in this part of the camera industry, the supply in-elasticity of a few years ago ..has already given in to the force of the elasticity of demand ...there is no fat for them to cut or live off..they have been competing dog eat dog in a high cost low return business forever....
and the demand for this stuff will fall hard and hurt total industry profitability which run on poor ROI/ROE dynamics - shareholders/owners are leveraged to the downside...big time..
Anyway we don't know wether Leaf the MFD manufacturer/marketer isnt a different part of the Kodak division - maybe they have been sold off..instead of closed - maybe they bought themselves..or maybe even organised a merger..we will know when the business has something to say to its customers...maybe nothing has changed at all..and it is business as usual.
dealers will survive - if they are diversified and sell product across all price points..and services on top which they can charge for..but there will be far fewer...
Companies will merge if they have synergies ..or die if they dont. Hasselblad has the total product offer and integrity to maybe outlast Phase One - depending on Phase One's balance sheet and how much pain the slug a thon would cause..it is a tough call..really and I wont bother to do any more thinking than that - seriously there is no money in the end result ..thats a no brainer.
When industries get to that mature and decaying state - players either consolidate or die. Simple as that. Hate to say this guys - but our backs from a monetary perspective are a write off in a couple of years..
Still who cares - if it does'nt matter - the monetary perspective..if it is already a write off and who cares...or already/nearly got the revenue to offset the depreciation..well thats just fine too!
Everyone else is just sitting on teh sidelines - watching. Look in this thread alone - two people who regularly post - dont shoot MFD. Watchers..waiting -
Do a Porter Analysis on the Industry structure and some undergad economics with a touch of basic accounting - all the answers are text book and inevitable..
From a customers point of view - make hay whilst the sun shines boys...you better be a professional who can depreciate the 'use' in terms of tax dollars ( quite a silly mindset really) Or a well heeled eccentric with the discretionary income to make such a purchase in flimflammery -MFD is cool , cutting edge and powerful so its worth the outlay -but its a consumable with some kudos/functionality..( another silly mindset)
Leaving aside issues to do with 'rationalisation of product purchase' - irrespective of market segment or segmentation - any way you cut it..every consumer demographic is feeling the squeeze in terms of total cash-flow going into their bank account - the pain is being felt everywhere.
MFD is discretionary expenditure - just like anything else really..and it lies at the high end of expenditure which has a very very elastic demand curve. MFD back makers have been focusing on harvesting every nook and cranny of potential in this part of the camera industry, the supply in-elasticity of a few years ago ..has already given in to the force of the elasticity of demand ...there is no fat for them to cut or live off..they have been competing dog eat dog in a high cost low return business forever....
and the demand for this stuff will fall hard and hurt total industry profitability which run on poor ROI/ROE dynamics - shareholders/owners are leveraged to the downside...big time..
Anyway we don't know wether Leaf the MFD manufacturer/marketer isnt a different part of the Kodak division - maybe they have been sold off..instead of closed - maybe they bought themselves..or maybe even organised a merger..we will know when the business has something to say to its customers...maybe nothing has changed at all..and it is business as usual.
dealers will survive - if they are diversified and sell product across all price points..and services on top which they can charge for..but there will be far fewer...
Companies will merge if they have synergies ..or die if they dont. Hasselblad has the total product offer and integrity to maybe outlast Phase One - depending on Phase One's balance sheet and how much pain the slug a thon would cause..it is a tough call..really and I wont bother to do any more thinking than that - seriously there is no money in the end result ..thats a no brainer.
When industries get to that mature and decaying state - players either consolidate or die. Simple as that. Hate to say this guys - but our backs from a monetary perspective are a write off in a couple of years..
Still who cares - if it does'nt matter - the monetary perspective..if it is already a write off and who cares...or already/nearly got the revenue to offset the depreciation..well thats just fine too!
Everyone else is just sitting on teh sidelines - watching. Look in this thread alone - two people who regularly post - dont shoot MFD. Watchers..waiting -
Thanks for the clarification. Hasselblad is certainly better positioned in the marketplace than Leaf. You control the design and manufacture of camera bodies, lenses, backs, and accessories. IIRC Hasselblad invested $12 million developing the H system back in 2002. Having an integrated system that "just works" is a good thing right now.
Leica Geosystems, Leica Microsystems, and Leica Camera are three entirely different companies (they split in the 1980's). Dr. Kaufmann's ACM Management owns Leica Camera AG and the 1100 number is just for this company. They make cameras and sport optics only. At least 60% is dedicated to cameras and lenses.
David
carstenw
Active member
One minor point regarding the independence of Hasselblad, which is also mirrored with Phase One, is the reliance on the existance of Fuji (and Mamiya, respectively). Phase One is is control of the Mamiya situation, being major investors. I don't know how strong Fuji is. At least their film side must be hurting, but I don't know how large they are or where they derive the greater part of their income (or loss).
pellicle
New member
yep ... look at the IBM range of Thinkpads. Went to Lenovo and then they lost all US government agencies who used them. The were on the space shuttle once.
BTW ... I'm Australian ... so not really Pro American ... but I agree with this point.
Guy Mancuso
Administrator, Instructor
This is the issue right here a lot of bad assumptions on how financially Hassy and Phase truly are, of course sales are down for everyone but amount of employee's and stuff like that means absolutely nothing at all. All I read here is marketing toilet paper. People need to stop making assumptions on this stuff. I WANT FACTS and have seen NONE of anything said here. Seriously all I read anymore about Leica is Kool aid talk. Having 1100 employees is also a huge risk in salaries and everything else when sales are down and no product selling at break neck speed. Being diversified is good but it also can be the death of a company. Obviously you don't hear about that end of it. It's all about managing the risk versus rewarded, you don't see that stuff on the balance sheets. Posturing is the word of the day and that is all I see coming out lately. Easy to do when your products still have not hit the streets.
Having more than 1000 employees (and the necessary profit to pay them) is of course an advantage instead of having just 100 employees. Disadvantages with size usually kick in later (communication & logistics in big companies) while diversification gives more economic safety and R&D are more powerful by the larger budgets and staff.
I think Leica Camera isn't even diversified enough, the should have never ripped the company apart, they now have many lens manufacturing/assemblies instead of one for different markets (microsopes, photographic lenses, industry...) and electronic know-how needed for digital cameras is "hidden" by Leica Microsystems...
But at least the can develop/buy electronics not only for the S2 but also for the R10, M9 and hopefully a digital compact, too.
But we don't have enough information, that's true, I don't think any of the companies has much basic component manufacturing left, the cameras are just assembled, only Leica has it's own lens-know-how. But what happens when Kodak goes nuts and Dalsa is not interested in sensors anymore or Sony doesn't want to share it's market with Nikon... Then we're in big trouble!
What we know is that Leica invested more into R&D of the S-System than ever before and has a big group of people working on it and I think we noticed the differences already in comparison to other MF-offers - while my M8 feels much more like an MFDB (I think the development staff was about 20 people?).
What really makes me wonder is the fact that Phase doesn't want to invest into a new die-cast-tool for it's backs (or HSC-machining it directly) but rather brings to cool new backs on the market with the same crappy, small LCD to stay with the same body...
Hopefully Leica makes everything right, it would be really helpful to have a not-too-small company in the high-end-market!
I think Leica Camera isn't even diversified enough, the should have never ripped the company apart, they now have many lens manufacturing/assemblies instead of one for different markets (microsopes, photographic lenses, industry...) and electronic know-how needed for digital cameras is "hidden" by Leica Microsystems...
But at least the can develop/buy electronics not only for the S2 but also for the R10, M9 and hopefully a digital compact, too.
But we don't have enough information, that's true, I don't think any of the companies has much basic component manufacturing left, the cameras are just assembled, only Leica has it's own lens-know-how. But what happens when Kodak goes nuts and Dalsa is not interested in sensors anymore or Sony doesn't want to share it's market with Nikon... Then we're in big trouble!
What we know is that Leica invested more into R&D of the S-System than ever before and has a big group of people working on it and I think we noticed the differences already in comparison to other MF-offers - while my M8 feels much more like an MFDB (I think the development staff was about 20 people?).
What really makes me wonder is the fact that Phase doesn't want to invest into a new die-cast-tool for it's backs (or HSC-machining it directly) but rather brings to cool new backs on the market with the same crappy, small LCD to stay with the same body...
Hopefully Leica makes everything right, it would be really helpful to have a not-too-small company in the high-end-market!
Just came from DMV (I swear time moved backwards), so am in a REALLY foul mood. You've been warned:
1. Size of firm has nothing to do with probability of continued success. If anything, as Guy suggests, larger can lead to taking one's eyes of the ball, diversifying to fast, decisions made due to internal politics vs. common sense, blah, blah, blah. More firms have been killed by over-expansion than any other single factor in history.
2. Lets see, Leica PHOTO product portfolio/cushion. Products currently made and selling:
- M7 (IIRC)
- M8.2
- Lenses for same
- Parts for same.
- Some bits and pieces of P&S gear in conjunction w/Panasonic.
- R system - dead, buried and obit published.
- S system - handful of prototypes, mockups and LOTS of internet-based hype/wishful thinking, Leicaphile mental 'self-gratification', LFI, uh, ahem, 'tests' (ROTFL) -- and Leicaphile-baiting by Zeiss/Nikon/Canonphiles - all of whom of are just as $%^& as the people they try and (all TOO easily BTW) bait.
Some cheap-seat advice: If you're a cast-iron, die-hard, 'logic is for skeptics', 'my underwear has Leica dots' Leicaphile -- make your life a lot easier and don't rise to the bait every time some $%^& flicks that big red button on your forehead. Watching it happen here, on FM, LUF, etc., is like watching someone fishing with hand-grenades. The first boom and sushi-toss is neat in sadistic way -- but it gets tragic very quickly.
If you regard the attached as one such 'flick', it isn't, but it case you think it is, just think of much better your blood pressure will be if you put your keyboard aside...
Oh, if you think the other unit heads at Leica are going to sit there and watch Dr. K, if need be, let the photo line feed of their product line R&D, etc ad infinitum, forget it. Valuable talent will leave IF that should look to be a trend within the firm.
3. Who gives a @#$%^ what Leica spent on R&D on the S2? They needed to spend what they needed to spend to get the #$%^& thing to where it is now. Same as Hassy did with the V, 200 and H systems, Mamiya with (pick a camera), Leaf, etc., etc. That was the EASY part. If anything Leica has it easy vs Hassy, Leaf, etc. Bang/$$ and integration in digital imaging tech has increased X fold since the other players broke ground in MFDBs.
4. Being established MEDIUM FORMAT vendors with established markets, established service systems, established dealers (see a pattern here) and established and SELLING products, Hassy/Phase/Mamiya/Leaf get EXPONENTIALLY more bang per R&D and S&M $$ spent than Leica does currently on the S series. Selling someone an M8.2 is a LITTLE different than selling and supporting someone with a MFDB. Whether Leica gets this latter point will the THE sole determinant of whether the S2 ever sees more than 12 pro gear safe's.
IF the S and it's required support structure becomes a success, then they will see that an improved 'R&D (and Selling & Marketing) leverage' factor - IF it becomes a success. However, the fewer units are sold, the lower your R&D and S&M leverage vs. the opposition.
4. "....Leica has survived this long despite the glass-1/2-empty growd, etc, etc, blah, sip Kool-Aid, dribble" is like saying "I survived to 43 yrs so far, thus, logically I will live forever." Staying alive DOES NOT correlate to success as a business - it correlates to an absence of terminal abject failure. That's it.
Being a former corporate M&A weasel and Street analyst, I LOVE business debates, etc, but I REALLY do wish people would put aside, as Guy says, the funny-tasting Kool-Aid AND the "I hate Leica for being, well, Leica" BS and look at things with some cold hard rationality.
Optimism is always nice and I DO hope they do well, but that doesn't mean I'm going to ignore the HUGE mountain they have to climb to get this baby selling well, nor the huge risk they've taken with this very technologically-tantalizing product.
There, that felt good. Very cathartic.
1. Size of firm has nothing to do with probability of continued success. If anything, as Guy suggests, larger can lead to taking one's eyes of the ball, diversifying to fast, decisions made due to internal politics vs. common sense, blah, blah, blah. More firms have been killed by over-expansion than any other single factor in history.
2. Lets see, Leica PHOTO product portfolio/cushion. Products currently made and selling:
- M7 (IIRC)
- M8.2
- Lenses for same
- Parts for same.
- Some bits and pieces of P&S gear in conjunction w/Panasonic.
- R system - dead, buried and obit published.
- S system - handful of prototypes, mockups and LOTS of internet-based hype/wishful thinking, Leicaphile mental 'self-gratification', LFI, uh, ahem, 'tests' (ROTFL) -- and Leicaphile-baiting by Zeiss/Nikon/Canonphiles - all of whom of are just as $%^& as the people they try and (all TOO easily BTW) bait.
Some cheap-seat advice: If you're a cast-iron, die-hard, 'logic is for skeptics', 'my underwear has Leica dots' Leicaphile -- make your life a lot easier and don't rise to the bait every time some $%^& flicks that big red button on your forehead. Watching it happen here, on FM, LUF, etc., is like watching someone fishing with hand-grenades. The first boom and sushi-toss is neat in sadistic way -- but it gets tragic very quickly.
If you regard the attached as one such 'flick', it isn't, but it case you think it is, just think of much better your blood pressure will be if you put your keyboard aside...
Oh, if you think the other unit heads at Leica are going to sit there and watch Dr. K, if need be, let the photo line feed of their product line R&D, etc ad infinitum, forget it. Valuable talent will leave IF that should look to be a trend within the firm.
3. Who gives a @#$%^ what Leica spent on R&D on the S2? They needed to spend what they needed to spend to get the #$%^& thing to where it is now. Same as Hassy did with the V, 200 and H systems, Mamiya with (pick a camera), Leaf, etc., etc. That was the EASY part. If anything Leica has it easy vs Hassy, Leaf, etc. Bang/$$ and integration in digital imaging tech has increased X fold since the other players broke ground in MFDBs.
4. Being established MEDIUM FORMAT vendors with established markets, established service systems, established dealers (see a pattern here) and established and SELLING products, Hassy/Phase/Mamiya/Leaf get EXPONENTIALLY more bang per R&D and S&M $$ spent than Leica does currently on the S series. Selling someone an M8.2 is a LITTLE different than selling and supporting someone with a MFDB. Whether Leica gets this latter point will the THE sole determinant of whether the S2 ever sees more than 12 pro gear safe's.
IF the S and it's required support structure becomes a success, then they will see that an improved 'R&D (and Selling & Marketing) leverage' factor - IF it becomes a success. However, the fewer units are sold, the lower your R&D and S&M leverage vs. the opposition.
4. "....Leica has survived this long despite the glass-1/2-empty growd, etc, etc, blah, sip Kool-Aid, dribble" is like saying "I survived to 43 yrs so far, thus, logically I will live forever." Staying alive DOES NOT correlate to success as a business - it correlates to an absence of terminal abject failure. That's it.
Being a former corporate M&A weasel and Street analyst, I LOVE business debates, etc, but I REALLY do wish people would put aside, as Guy says, the funny-tasting Kool-Aid AND the "I hate Leica for being, well, Leica" BS and look at things with some cold hard rationality.
Optimism is always nice and I DO hope they do well, but that doesn't mean I'm going to ignore the HUGE mountain they have to climb to get this baby selling well, nor the huge risk they've taken with this very technologically-tantalizing product.
There, that felt good. Very cathartic.
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I'd like facts too. Any company reps care to share revenue numbers for Phase, Hasselblad, Sinar, or Leaf? Or cash reserves? Or current R&D budget? Net losses/profits? Year over year sales comparisons? Market share stats?
Because Leica is still a publicly traded company (for now), you can see their financials. The other companies are private and I'm sure are not willing to open their books. I'm not saying they should (I wouldn't in their position), but it's pretty hard to see just who is/isn't posturing right now.
Drastic and continual price slashings of MFD gear don't exactly create a feeling of well-being in the marketplace. I hear you can get a great deal on a Chrysler right now, too.
Besides the S2, there are other new products that have already hit the shelves. Every single 21 and 24 Lux that I get goes right out the door. I have a waiting list for the new Noctilux (which I started to receive last week). The 18 SE has been extremely popular and people are still buying new M8s and M8.2s. At our store, Leica C-Lux 3 and D-Lux 4 cameras outsell N and C compacts by about 100 to 1.
The S2 is really only one piece of the puzzle for Leica. No Kool Aid here. It is simply a product that is different from current offerings and we will have to wait a few more months to see real world comparisons.
To get back on topic....I guess my point was if sales of Leaf Aptus backs are down X% and it is the only product in their portfolio, where is the money coming from? Lack of diversification could be their undoing.
David
carstenw
Active member
- Projectors
- Binoculars
- Rangemasters
- Rifle scopes
- Spotting scopes
- A new segment with at least two tripods. I don't mean the tabletop one.
I don't know why you are trying to keep those last items out by emphasizing PHOTO. It is still part of the R&D, income, and bottom line, same company.
The P&S stuff is selling like hotcakes and the M system was keeping itself afloat the last I heard. The binoculars are pricy, but so is the competition, and Leica is well regarded there too. I am not sure about this, perhaps David can fill us in, but the various sub-companies in the Leica group may also do consulting work for other companies. In the future, there is Leica Cinema coming, whatever that is, so that will be more diversification when it arrives. And the R system is not dead and buried, but is simply on hold until more manpower is freed up to continue it.
Let's see Hasselblad's: 1 MF system and a couple of film scanners (!).
Let's see Phase One's: 1 MF system, and 1 piece of niche software.
I don't think anyone is trying to say that Phase or Hasselblad are about to go out of business, but the MF segment in general is looking rough, and it wouldn't take too many months of very low sales to kill or severely damage even a strong company in this segment. Let's keep a perspective here: selling to pro photographers is not the most lucrative of businesses
If the economy stays bad for another year or two, and the S2 is delayed, then it might arrive in a market with no other players.
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ptomsu
Workshop Member
Hasselblad - some of the best film scanners in the world- Projectors
- Binoculars
- Rangemasters
- Rifle scopes
- Spotting scopes
- A new segment with at least two tripods. I don't mean the tabletop one.
I don't know why you are trying to keep those last items out by emphasizing PHOTO. It is still part of the R&D, income, and bottom line, same company.
The P&S stuff is selling like hotcakes and the M system was keeping itself afloat the last I heard. The binoculars are pricy, but so is the competition, and Leica is well regarded there too. I am not sure about this, perhaps David can fill us in, but the various sub-companies in the Leica group may also do consulting work for other companies. In the future, there is Leica Cinema coming, whatever that is, so that will be more diversification when it arrives. And the R system is not dead and buried, but is simply on hold until more manpower is freed up to continue it.
Let's see Hasselblad's: 1 MF system and a couple of film scanners (!).
Let's see Phase One's: 1 MF system, and 1 piece of niche software.
I don't think anyone is trying to say that Phase or Hasselblad are about to go out of business, but the MF segment in general is looking rough, and it wouldn't take too many months of very low sales to kill or severely damage even a strong company in this segment. Let's keep a perspective here: selling to pro photographers is not the most lucrative of businesses
Phase One - a niche SW which is the clear leader if it comes to support of RAW and quality and useability
Leica P&S - well what you regard as selling like hotcakes does not really mean they are leading
Leica M - well somehow I would agree this system keeps itself alive
Leica Projectors - forget them - almost not available and far too expensive - the old labeling syndrom here again
Leica R System - DEAD for the moment - sold out - will never start life again
Leica S System - great concept technically, lot of hot air still and will suffer same things the DMR suffered, once finally available already at the end of it's lifetime because of technical progress
Leica binoculars - not really the best around - sorry to say but heard that from several people using binoculars in their daily professional life
Leica cinema - we discussed this, for me just vapourware, they first have to prove what they can achieve
Leica rest - maybe good - I don't know!
Not in a good mood for Leica? No I am not! And there are number of reasons as we all know.
S2 arrive in a market with no other players? If this is the case (which I doubt heavily) then also Leica will not be a player anymore!
But one of my biggest concerns is the steady change of CEOs - the last one a few months ago. This cannot be good for a company, does not even have lot to do with the CEO quality, but just with providing a steady and trusty stream inside the company and also for the market. They clearly have failed in that discipline!
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stephengilbert
Active member
Peter,
Does this mean that you won't be buying an S2? As a Leica fan, I find that quite disturbing. Won't your negative views seriously impact Leica's chances of success?
A week or two ago, when you were planning to buy an S2--maybe--I began putting money aside. Now that you think Leica is worthless--maybe--I don't know what to do.
Please advise.
Thank you
Life is a never changing journey.
Does this mean that you won't be buying an S2? As a Leica fan, I find that quite disturbing. Won't your negative views seriously impact Leica's chances of success?
A week or two ago, when you were planning to buy an S2--maybe--I began putting money aside. Now that you think Leica is worthless--maybe--I don't know what to do.
Please advise.
Thank you
Life is a never changing journey.
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ptomsu
Workshop Member
You need to make up your own mind. Never count on someone other's opinion, because everyone has different preferences and thus your decision might easily be very different from mine.
Also I did not say I would not buy an S2 if it really holds what it promises and if the price is right. But judge for yourself and with the knowledge you should have about the fast evolution in the digital world - especial digital photography - how long do you think the S2 will be able to defend it's unique and outstanding position once it sees the light of market before another vendor shows just something remarkably better? It will not just depend on the lenses, it will depend on the sensor, the firmware, the post processing SW etc etc - you know this of course. But will it be enough for you for enough timespan (because of the expected high price?
Only you can tell for yourself.
The other facts are facts and we can argue about their importance for buying an S2 but in the end of the day they are more important for some people as for others.
PS: if your life is a never changing journey then your life is boring - and I do not believe that this is really the case .....
Carsten,
With all respect due:
The S2 will make/break Leica as a photo products developer. Hopefully the former, not the latter, but:
"Oh, if you think the other unit heads at Leica are going to sit there and watch Dr. K, if need be, let the photo line feed off their product line R&D, etc., ad infinitum, forget it. Valuable talent will leave IF that should look to be a trend within the firm. "
As in any company, where it's Leica with M/S bodies and binocs, etc., or SAAB with cars and fighter aircraft, each unit has to stand or die on its own. It comes a point where screwing the 'also rans' within a firm (which Im sure they consider themselves as) to keep a pet project product(s) flush with cash is no longer doable or tolerated internally -- regardless of who owns what stake.
As for ''..selling like hotcakes..' That's relative vs Canon, Sony, Nikon, et al which sell far, far more P&S units per $$ spent in R&D accordingly than does Leica.
Leica, the photo products developer is what we are concerned about. I doubt many hard-core Leicaphiles would feel good about the firm if Leica's photo market shrunk under it but the cinema/binoc, etc units thrived (relatively speaking).
Hassy's future depends on it's MF cameras, not it's scanners. Phamiya's on it's current cameras, a future integrated unit and it's photo software, Leaf on it's backs, etc. Leica as a viable competitor to any of the preceding depends on the success of it's cameras, in this case the S2.
With all respect due:
The S2 will make/break Leica as a photo products developer. Hopefully the former, not the latter, but:
"Oh, if you think the other unit heads at Leica are going to sit there and watch Dr. K, if need be, let the photo line feed off their product line R&D, etc., ad infinitum, forget it. Valuable talent will leave IF that should look to be a trend within the firm. "
As in any company, where it's Leica with M/S bodies and binocs, etc., or SAAB with cars and fighter aircraft, each unit has to stand or die on its own. It comes a point where screwing the 'also rans' within a firm (which Im sure they consider themselves as) to keep a pet project product(s) flush with cash is no longer doable or tolerated internally -- regardless of who owns what stake.
As for ''..selling like hotcakes..' That's relative vs Canon, Sony, Nikon, et al which sell far, far more P&S units per $$ spent in R&D accordingly than does Leica.
Leica, the photo products developer is what we are concerned about. I doubt many hard-core Leicaphiles would feel good about the firm if Leica's photo market shrunk under it but the cinema/binoc, etc units thrived (relatively speaking).
Hassy's future depends on it's MF cameras, not it's scanners. Phamiya's on it's current cameras, a future integrated unit and it's photo software, Leaf on it's backs, etc. Leica as a viable competitor to any of the preceding depends on the success of it's cameras, in this case the S2.
carstenw
Active member
LOL, brilliant! :ROTFL: If you don't like Peter's current opinion on the S2, just wait 5 minutes. Sorry, Peter, but you you flip-flop so much on this issue that I am getting dizzy.
carstenw
Active member
Huh? Let's make clear that this is your opinion/guess. No one here has this kind of information.
Could be. But this isn't the current situation, so it is rather hypothetical. Parts of the photo line are selling well, parts aren't. What the overall picture is I don't know, and I don't think that you do either.
I am sure that Leica's profit margin per camera is much higher in this segment, so that is a meaningless comparison. There is much more to this than any of us know.
Leica doesn't look weak right now, a different situation than 5 years ago. The MF segment in general does. I had tipped Mamiya to be the next to die, but Phase jumped in. Leaf was a mild surprise, but to be honest, I would not be shocked even if the next company was Hasselblad or Phase. I don't think they will be, but we just don't know. Time will tell.
Guy Mancuso
Administrator, Instructor
Carsten we have to remember you can throw any amount of money to keep a company floating or more important a section of the company for as long as the willing party is willing to do that, but that does not always mean it is profitable but more likely survivable until the next round of products hits the decks or the market climbs again. My guess is Leica is in survival mode until the S2 comes to play. It's been a long time since the release of there last major camera and there may have been a load of money thrown at it to go a 2 year span until it becomes a profit center again with new product. Also the sports optics has done well . This all goes back to my original point one part of the company can be dipping in pig crap and the other doing well but unless you are sitting in those board meeting no one knows but what we do see is the balance sheet that is averaged. When problems arise and I have seen this is when say there are 5 major divisions in a company and 3 of them hit the wall the other 2 can't cover them and than everything hits the fan blades. Like I said things could be in survival mode for many companies like this but what keeps them going is another division. Seriously Phase does not seem short of any money and just dumped a load of money in Mamiya and my bet will suck something else up under it's wings very shortly. The issue is no one here really knows how much money is backing Phase and Hassy for that matter.
carstenw
Active member
You are right, we don't know. What we do know is how much money is backing up Leica, and what they earn. Right now, I would not say that they are in survival mode, more like ramping up for future projects, while perhaps breaking even between over- and under-performing units. The point is that there is a plan for each unit, and most of the plans look good. The one question mark is the R system. Yes, they do intend to return to it and bring it back to life, but what is their angle? Adding autofocus won't kill Canikony, even if they fix the mediocre performers in the excellent lens lineup.
Anyway, Leica is interesting to watch, and at the moment they are gearing up for all kinds of things. In five years we can discuss their success/failure over a glass of wine, but in the meantime, it is all speculation, good or bad.
Phase and Mamiya, I don't know. I sure hope you are right. All the MF companies have something different to offer, and they are all neat in their own way. The Mamiya is probably the weakest camera at the moment, but it is still good, and with Phase backing Mamiya, I expect improvements. However, given that they are privately owned by a few individuals, how long can they hold their breath while the industry is under water?
I don't really know anything about Hasselblad. They are probably in the best shape of all in the MF segment, with a pretty complete system on hand. All they need is a focal plane shutter body, and they would have it all. But how are their finances going to hold up in an economy where everyone is waiting or going for the D3x? How committed are their Hong Kong owners? What about Fuji?
All open questions. It is interesting to discuss, and more facts are always welcome, like David brings in from time to time, but really, we know so little.
Anyway, Leica is interesting to watch, and at the moment they are gearing up for all kinds of things. In five years we can discuss their success/failure over a glass of wine, but in the meantime, it is all speculation, good or bad.
Phase and Mamiya, I don't know. I sure hope you are right. All the MF companies have something different to offer, and they are all neat in their own way. The Mamiya is probably the weakest camera at the moment, but it is still good, and with Phase backing Mamiya, I expect improvements. However, given that they are privately owned by a few individuals, how long can they hold their breath while the industry is under water?
I don't really know anything about Hasselblad. They are probably in the best shape of all in the MF segment, with a pretty complete system on hand. All they need is a focal plane shutter body, and they would have it all. But how are their finances going to hold up in an economy where everyone is waiting or going for the D3x? How committed are their Hong Kong owners? What about Fuji?
All open questions. It is interesting to discuss, and more facts are always welcome, like David brings in from time to time, but really, we know so little.