I think some of your points are unanswerable. After the launch of the S2 (some time after, at least several weeks, more likely several months, not immediately after), you might be able to judge for yourself if it will be successful. If it is, then I think that points 1) and 2) look good. 3) will be answered when the T/S lens is out, but keep in mind that it will just be the one lens, not a series. 4) is already known: Lightroom will support the S2 directly. The question is how well, since Lightroom is weak on white balance, sharpness and noise.