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Nikon - what's the way forward?

Swissblad

Well-known member
This Q+A session on NR is not that promising - the higher profit margin even sounds a bit Hasselbladisch…. will we see gold plated Df's next?

IMHO the Df is overpriced as is, and it is not attracting old Nikon F, F2, FM users. They value optical viewfinders geared for sue with MF lenses.

Here's Thom Hogan's take.

This is not intended to start a flamewar….. just start a discussion on a rather pivotal point in the future of dSLR cameras.
 

Guy Mancuso

Administrator, Instructor
iPhones are a big reason for this. I agree too many models as well and trimming production to meet the actual market is the way to go.

Also to make revenue they could also charge for added features via firmware. Let's take the D800 I would pay 50 bucks for a revamped live view setup. Do the math 3 million units times 50 bucks which there costs are maybe 2 dollars that's a lot of profit. Most folks won't buy new cams for just a evolution upgrade. Take the firmware of it and sell to the existing base. There's money to be made.
 

Swissblad

Well-known member
Guy, I agree, cam/iphones are decimating the P&S line-up.

A more sensible line-up is also a good consideration - as are firmware updates.

i was very impressed that Fuji did a major update recently of the X-100.

There has been no similar update of the D700/D3.

Personally, I would have preferred the D600 in a D700/D800 type body with 51 AF points…

With the Df I wished the would have done a better survey of their potential customers.

Let's see what the future brings…….
 

Jorgen Udvang

Subscriber Member
Thom Hogan makes me sleepy. I don't understand what he's writing about. This is not a problem. If no new cameras will be launched for the rest of my lifetime, I will still take photos. I've spent all day today at an airshow. I took photos with a Panasonic. If I brought a Nikon F or my Nokia, I could have taken photos with one of those. Upgrades are overrated.
 

Jack

Sr. Administrator
Staff member
Guy, Bob and I were discussing this very thing over the weekend. Bottom line is most cell phones of today are better than pro-level 35mm SLRs we had 30 years ago. And everybody's got one, so "photographic images" are not much of a commodity -- nor are paper versions of images valued nearly as much as they used to be.

My Epson 7900 will likely be the last large printer I purchase. Why? Because very few people want prints anymore. I was in Costco the other day and they are now selling 50" flat-panel TV's in twin-packs for under $1000. My next house will have the walls covered in monitors that each have a dozen or so images cycling through them hourly -- changeable art and ambient lighting all in one. Heck, and a little free heat too :lol:

Finally, how much better can Nikon or Canon make an FX sensor? Not much, we are pushing at the edges of physics already. Lenses yes, and here is probably where we'll be seeing some efforts and they need to. But get ready to pay for them if the new 58 is any indication -- incremental increases in performance for 3x the price, just like it's been with audio gear for quite a while. Other option is designer cases, a-la the Df. Some will buy them at what appears to be a 2x pricepoint, and when sales drop off we'll see the same sensor, or perhaps the D600 sensor in another tricked out body -- and we'll buy that too. It's worked for Leica for years, and all it will take is for Nikon to get the feel for what their customers want in an accessory camera.

But at the end of the day, our cell phones produce images that are good enough for even the next generation of 4K displays, so my guess for the future is something like this: DX consumer DSLR's will taper way off and eventually fade as M4/3 has that covered outstandingly well in smaller packages and lighter weights. FX pro-sumer and pro will stay around, but at higher prices. And we'll see the small cameras packed with features taper away as cell phones get all those nifty features.
 
V

Vivek

Guest
Also to make revenue they could also charge for added features via firmware. Let's take the D800 I would pay 50 bucks for a revamped live view setup. Do the math 3 million units times 50 bucks which there costs are maybe 2 dollars that's a lot of profit. Most folks won't buy new cams for just a evolution upgrade. Take the firmware of it and sell to the existing base. There's money to be made.
Even if they do that, what are they going to do with that revenue? The whole question of future of the DSLRs is up for debate and very seriously.
 

Guy Mancuso

Administrator, Instructor
Problem is they can never get out of DSLR's. Sports alone is a huge market for Canon and Nikon. That won't change. Here in the states we have every sport there is and all college , Pro and high school involved in every sport. There will always be the need for 300mm and longer lenses as well. Now the bodies don't need to be 36mpx but they still need a D4 type cam. The rest of the market is up for debate I agree as folks are going mirror less or iPhones . Nikon is late to the party as i really think Sony is going to spank there *** on mirror less.

But why build a body like a D810 when no one will upgrade to it but take the updates and sell them to the user base. This is free revenue , well almost free. Now what they do with the money is a stock holders dream. LOL
 

Swissblad

Well-known member
Guy, Jack - thanks for the comments - pretty much sums up my notions as well.

I think we will see a major shake up in the DSLR industry, akin to what happened with MFD.

Gone are the days when the stable Nikon line-up for years was the F3, FA and FM2…… ;)
 

Guy Mancuso

Administrator, Instructor
They certainly don't need 10 DSLR type bodies. Cut that in half with great feature sets and that alone lowers a huge amount of debt with just production alone. I would say today a D800E , D4, D610, 7100, 5300 and end it there. Make that 5300 at a 400 dollar price point as the entry level. Than get serious about a mirror less system with only 2 models like Sony is doing now. 36mpx and a 24mpx

Compacts maybe 2 or 3
 
M

mjr

Guest
I think it's a shame that companies have to answer to shareholders and fulfil the constant need for new products, I'd rather see a core 3 or 4 models with the r&d concentrating on lenses. I know it's human nature to look to the next thing but really, rather than the personal list of items that may make life a bit easier, what are we missing from the current lineup? The D610, D800, D4 etc are all fantastic cameras and as Jack has said, where does the sensor development go? It's already pretty amazing to my mind.

People demand the new latest gadget so the companies in their search for profit give it to them, I wish it would all stop and then they could concentrate on longer product life cycles, do as Guy suggests and refresh via updates rather than just bring out a new model, I don't want to keep changing! Obviously I'm not a Pro so I can appreciate I'm not on the same page as most here but for me, I'd rather spend money on lenses and getting better at taking pictures rather than on a new body every year or so.

I think we're pretty lucky as we stand today, some amazing cameras available to us.

Mat
 

Guy Mancuso

Administrator, Instructor
I agree also get serious about glass. We don't need 64 of them cut that in half but make them outstanding. I can only carry 5 but I want 5 that I do NOT have to look at Zeiss, Sigma and Leica R to provide either.
 

Jack

Sr. Administrator
Staff member
Actually on glass I am pretty happy right now but a few things I'd like to see:

1) The 50/1.2 in an AF version. We won't see it because this is the void the 58 was supposed to fill.
2) A really kick-butt 17 PC-E.
3) An improved 24 PC-E.
4) The 28/1.4 with updated AF. Probably will never see it because of the 24/1.4.
5) The 105DC with updated AF. Won't likely happen because the 105 macro is so good and DC is expensive to manufacture.
6) A revised 35/1.4 that matched the 24/1.4 and 28/1.4 in performance. But now that I have the 28, I don't personally feel a great need for this one though I suspect it would be popular in general.
 

Swissblad

Well-known member
Serious glass is a must.

I would add a 24-70 f2.8 with VR.

A new PC-E wide-angle family is needed.

The 200mm Micro could do with a AFS update.

A set of primes to do the D800E justice i.e. No need for Zeiss …… etc
 

ptomsu

Workshop Member
1) New 1.4/85, which is really without any CA issues - maybe VR
2) New 1.4/35 up to Leica/Zeiss standard
3) New 2.8/16-35 with much improved performance above 17-35
4) New 2.8/70-200 VR which really stays 200 as tele also when shooting close
5) New 2.8/24-70 VR
 

RVB

Member
How about a D4 body with a D800E sensor? the D800 is a great camera but a pro body feels a lot better and adding to the FPS would be nice..

On the glass side Quality over quantity is the way forward and Nikon should definitely raise the quality with their more expensive glass..Would people pay an extra 20-30% to see as good or better than Ziess IQ in the G primes.?It looks like the way forward might be Nikon body with Sigma and Zeiss glass,the Sigma 35mm Art is a lot better than the 35G (and still a Lot cheaper),and Sigma are planning a 24 and 85 Art if the rumours are correct..
 

GrahamWelland

Subscriber & Workshop Member
I would certainly agree that there's a pent up market for a D800E sensor in a pro D body. There are a number of Nikon friends of mine who are in the same boat as myself in missing the larger robust body of the D3s/D3x/D4 but with a higher resolution sensor with the D800's amazing versatility. We don't necessarily want the FPS but the robustness and feel of a full size body is what we miss. Adding a grip to a D800 doesn't cut it. Just don't expect to sell it at $8k.
 

Swissblad

Well-known member
I guess we are all still waiting for the D4X…..

Concerning glass - it really is crazy that Nikon users are having to resort to other brands for better glass.

Using Zeiss ZF lenses is not an option for me, as I really need AF.
 

Guy Mancuso

Administrator, Instructor
Leica 19 R, Nikon 28 which I'm selling, Sigma 35, looking for a 55, Nikon 85 1.8 which I maybe selling, Zeiss 135f2

What I'm buying Zeiss 25mm f2, Sigma 24-105 F 4, maybe Leica 28 R , I'm still on the fence with a 85/100/105 but might just get a 85 PC lens .

Worst case I will have one Nikon lens. That's a shame
 

AreBee

Member
Graham,

I would certainly agree that there's a pent up market for a D800E sensor in a pro D body. There are a number of Nikon friends of mine who are in the same boat as myself in missing the larger robust body of the D3s/D3x/D4 but with a higher resolution sensor with the D800's amazing versatility.
A pent up market there may be, but it is vanishingly small, relatively speaking. While I dare say it would be nice to shoot D800 resolution in a body with integral grip, the majority of D800 shooters likely consider it a "would like" rather than a "need". In my opinion the prospect of it becoming reality is unlikely given the premium Nikon would charge for what would be their flagship model. D800 shooters would balk at the price, just as they did for the D3x, and retain their D800.

Increased resolution in a body with integral grip, however, is another story altogether.
 
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