Jorgen Udvang
Subscriber Member
They halved from November to December last year, but that does not seem to be the general trend.
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Technology and Reality
- Thread starter Jorgen Udvang
- Start date
Shashin
Well-known member
It looks like mirrorless and and premium fixed lens cameras are growing, DSLRs are flat, and other, presumable compact cameras, are shrinking. This does not seem to support your hypothesis.I've finally been able to find what seems to be a very reliable graph of total camera sales worldwide, collected by German research firm GFK in connection with Photokina last years:
Maybe I give the manufacturing corporations too much credit, Marc, but you must also remember that there are corporations out there that have survived for decades and even centuries without government intervention or other artificial nutrition. If we didn't believe that, socialism would become an attractive alternative, although I'm sometimes confused as to what is what.
Shashin
Well-known member
From your chart, DSLRs halved from June 2012 to December 2014. The trend seems to be downward. There were a couple of steep drops and no real recovery after after each drop. Now whether the January 2014 to November 2014 numbers represent a slow increasing trend, it is hard to say, but the overall trend is negative.
If these were stocks, I would recommend selling.
Jorgen Udvang
Subscriber Member
The only camera stock I would invest in would be Fujifilm... with money I could afford to lose. Fujifilm seems to be a corporation with some brilliant leaders and inventors.
Jorgen Udvang
Subscriber Member
I'm not sure about the source for the first curve, so I don't trust it as much as the second one, which comes from a reputed German research company and represents worldwide figures.
Jorge, I'm not sure what Government Intervention has to do with this specific discussion. I'd agree that there are corporations that have thrived or stayed the course for decades. However, it doesn't insulate them from sudden shifts in market directions which is the topic here as far as I can tell.
Great brands can fall behind by burying their head in the sand, or while playing a "wait and see" game of brinkmanship, then suddenly make the most obvious blunders. Hasselblad is an example we all are familiar with.
RE: Chart ... Mirror-less and premium fixed lens may be growing in share ... but it is just a bit bigger slice out of a quickly shrinking pie.
For "other fixed lens" to have lost 60 to 65% of sales in 4 years, while not surprising, is revealing. Traditionally, this category was profitable and helped fund the R&D for the DSLR developments ... so 2010/11 helped pay for innovations in the following few years. What will fund it now?
Canon and Nikon probably make up a vast majority of the DSLR pie, while Sony, Fuji, Olympus, Sigma never had that big a share of DSLRs, if any ... but were ahead of the Canon and Nikon in innovative smaller cameras, and now dictate the rules of engagement in the marketplace. It's a world turned upside down.
Since Sony doesn't make traditional DSLRs anymore, they can concentrate on selling as many mirror-less cameras to those willing to shell out $1.5K to $2.5K every five minutes ... then vary the products just enough to sell them more than one camera at a time. It's a sweet deal for them as long as the consumer cooperates. Despite rumors, I'm starting to wonder whether my so called technologically aging A99 will actually ever be replaced, not that it isn't just fine as is.
I guess we'll see where this all goes.
- Marc
Great brands can fall behind by burying their head in the sand, or while playing a "wait and see" game of brinkmanship, then suddenly make the most obvious blunders. Hasselblad is an example we all are familiar with.
RE: Chart ... Mirror-less and premium fixed lens may be growing in share ... but it is just a bit bigger slice out of a quickly shrinking pie.
For "other fixed lens" to have lost 60 to 65% of sales in 4 years, while not surprising, is revealing. Traditionally, this category was profitable and helped fund the R&D for the DSLR developments ... so 2010/11 helped pay for innovations in the following few years. What will fund it now?
Canon and Nikon probably make up a vast majority of the DSLR pie, while Sony, Fuji, Olympus, Sigma never had that big a share of DSLRs, if any ... but were ahead of the Canon and Nikon in innovative smaller cameras, and now dictate the rules of engagement in the marketplace. It's a world turned upside down.
Since Sony doesn't make traditional DSLRs anymore, they can concentrate on selling as many mirror-less cameras to those willing to shell out $1.5K to $2.5K every five minutes ... then vary the products just enough to sell them more than one camera at a time. It's a sweet deal for them as long as the consumer cooperates. Despite rumors, I'm starting to wonder whether my so called technologically aging A99 will actually ever be replaced, not that it isn't just fine as is.
I guess we'll see where this all goes.
- Marc