Guy Mancuso
Administrator, Instructor
Great that I read this one. My daughters just boarding a plane in Chicago to Paris as part of her school.
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Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?
- Thread starter johnastovall
- Start date
R
Ranger 9
Guest
The local newspaper today provided a factoid that provides an interesting perspective:
Maybe cable news has got us worrying about the wrong thing...?
So far, about 200 people worldwide have died in the H1N1 pandemic.
Last year, ordinary seasonal flu killed 36,000 people in the United States alone.
Maybe cable news has got us worrying about the wrong thing...?
O
Oxide Blu
Guest
Maybe it has more to do with percentages and infection rates. In a normal year, 200,000 to 300,000 people in the US will get the flu. 35,000 to 36,000 of them will die from it.
It is far easier to catch this flu. It is proving itself very efficient at spreading. Perhaps it kills a lower percentage of the people that get it, but the number of people that will get will eclipse your garden variety seasonal flu. Projections are presuming a 50% infection rate -- 1 out of every 2 people may eventually be infected by this flu. Of course, the numbers could be smaller, too. Won't know until after it runs its course.
Also, the more people that get this swine flu, the greater the opportunity for it to mutate into something more sinister. But it could also mutate into something far wimpier, too. No way to know until we get there. One thought is the reason it kills Mexicans is because it has been kicking around in Mexico for awhile now, has mutated into a more sinister flu down there -- hasn't worked its way north, yet. All of the deaths were in clusters in a specific areas.
That is what has folks attention -- not what this flu is right now, but what it has the potential to be, and can it be contained if does morph into a deadly strain of flu.
It is far easier to catch this flu. It is proving itself very efficient at spreading. Perhaps it kills a lower percentage of the people that get it, but the number of people that will get will eclipse your garden variety seasonal flu. Projections are presuming a 50% infection rate -- 1 out of every 2 people may eventually be infected by this flu. Of course, the numbers could be smaller, too. Won't know until after it runs its course.
Also, the more people that get this swine flu, the greater the opportunity for it to mutate into something more sinister. But it could also mutate into something far wimpier, too. No way to know until we get there. One thought is the reason it kills Mexicans is because it has been kicking around in Mexico for awhile now, has mutated into a more sinister flu down there -- hasn't worked its way north, yet. All of the deaths were in clusters in a specific areas.
That is what has folks attention -- not what this flu is right now, but what it has the potential to be, and can it be contained if does morph into a deadly strain of flu.
jonoslack
Active member
Nail on head stuff here . . . . as for containment, I'd say (and the smart heads here in the UK all seem to agree) that there is absolutely no chance of containment - pandemic is on it's way.
On the up side people are responding well to treatment, and for most it's no worse than normal flu. The real problem is likely to be in 3rd world countries where they don't have stockpiles of anti-viral drugs.
johnastovall
Deceased, but remembered fondly here...
Variation on a theme. Matt from the Telegraph last week.