Soon 10'000 members!

[Paul Spinnler]

It has slowed down massively in the last years, and maybe also this year due to the lack of innovation in MFD and the difficult economy - but 10'000 members soon is something to cherish!

Also with the FED kickstarting sequential rate reductions today, and an IQ5 around the corner in 2025, there's stuff to look forward to!

 

[SrMphoto]

Are there credible rumors that IQ5 is on the way? That would be great.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

Yes, the new 250 3:2 Sony sensor - 300 if they can get it in 54x40 - is out and Phase has come back from the dead this year releasing their first self-branded tele, the SB adapter, new tilt lens variants, etc. They also just launched the 40 XC.

They would not restart IG action if they would want to bury the business.

CI and other dealers I know have hinted sth is in the cards.

We expect:
XT XL
IQ5 with 250 or 300 MPX and EVF compatibility

I hope they get the message that:

+ 54x40
+ New I/O (WIFI 7, latest Bluetooth)
+ Beefier onboard processing
+ EVF
+ More ports for HDMI, X shutter, flash sync, physical tether at the same time
+ New battery system
+ Better screen
+ More DR

Would be appreciated.

If they achieve higher DR and keep trade-in at 25k or lower for IQ4 owners I am in.

More than that I am out.

IQ5 needs to WOW. Industry has evolved.

 

[SrMphoto]

Well, I hope you are right.
I do not see how they could increase DR with current technology and sensor size.
I would think that current way of increasing DR with in-camera frame averaging is unbeatable.

 

[Steve Hendrix]

Yes, the new 250 3:2 Sony sensor - 300 if they can get it in 54x40 - is out and Phase has come back from the dead this year releasing their first self-branded tele, the SB adapter, new tilt lens variants, etc. They also just launched the 40 XC.

They would not restart IG action if they would want to bury the business.

CI and other dealers I know have hinted sth is in the cards.

We expect:
XT XL
IQ5 with 250 or 300 MPX and EVF compatibility

I hope they get the message that:

+ 54x40
+ New I/O (WIFI 7, latest Bluetooth)
+ Beefier onboard processing
+ EVF
+ More ports for HDMI, X shutter, flash sync, physical tether at the same time
+ New battery system
+ Better screen
+ More DR

Would be appreciated.

If they achieve higher DR and keep trade-in at 25k or lower for IQ4 owners I am in.

More than that I am out.

IQ5 needs to WOW. Industry has evolved.

Just for clarification, since you said "we expect" right below the mention of "CI and other dealers" - we (Capture Integration) know nothing, have shared nothing, beyond what has been stated publicly in terms of a potential new Sony sensor.


Steve Hendrix/CI

 

[Paul Spinnler]

Steve,

I appreciate your clarification, but it highlights a broader issue. You've previously implied being shown new products behind closed doors by Phase One, yet you also state you know nothing beyond public information while selling their newest products and promoting the XC40. This is a bit problematic in view of the total "official" lack of clarity from P1 on the back business (I say official because if they don't do an IQ5 now after all the releases recently it would be very disappointing for all customers because part of such an expensive investment is also the belief that the system will prevail).

As a dealer selling expensive new products like the XC40 and 90mm Tilt XT for an aging IQ4 system, how do you reconcile this? Customers investing tens of thousands deserve more clarity on the system's future. Even if they don't deserve it, they might ask for it and then what is said?

Phase One's recent releases suggest ongoing commitment, but the silence on digital back development is uncool at best. "We know nothing" seems inadequate when customers are considering such significant investments – its weird because on the one hand it sometimes feels like they abandoned it, but then again are now opportunistically pushing it again a bit after XC sold a bit better than expected in Asia.

Given the professional nature of these tools and their long-term implications, don't you feel both dealers and Phase One owe customers more transparency? Whether it's about a potential IQ5 or just a development roadmap, any official stance would be better than the current information vacuum.

How do you balance customer interests with your dealer constraints in this situation? How do you address potential buyers' concerns about investing in the Phase One ecosystem given this uncertainty?

If someone walks into your store based on your XC40 youtube clip and then asks more generally about P1 - what do you say? Can you in earnest recommend at this stage for example full list price for an IQ4 + XC lens bundle at 60k USD or what it is (not sure if there's such a bundle and what the price is, I remember XC23 was bundled and cost beyond 50k at the beginning).

0 comms + new products of that price level is very strange and I wonder what the "official" marketing message is that someone gets nowadays when enquiring in the context of the new products (short tele, 90 SB, 40 XC) more generally about what to expect.

Their recent releases in my view imply strongly that an IQ5 will come, anything else would be extremely unfair towards all customers who recently bought XC stuff etc. because imagine you go to a dealer he implies there will be new products but there's no official statement and then next year boom you get a press release that P1 exits the business.

It would make anyone furious given the gear costs the equivalent of a great car - that's why I believe an IQ5 is very certain - it is implied by their behaviour as of late with starting to push again new products.

Imagine what a an official statement along the lines – "Dear P1 customers – we gotcha, we hear ya, your investment is future proof" would do: It would galvanize the remaining clientele, stabilize secondary market and make people wait for P1's new product before buying a Fuji / Hassy if they were considering switching. It just irks me we haven't had a statement to this effect post the Sony sensor announcement - it feels overly opportunistic to not want to lean too much out of the window towards their retail clientele - ie just to keep "option open" while at the same time releasing new lenses or not harm current IQ4 sales. To avoid that they could just more broadly state that they're long-term committed to photography - even that would be amazing after the total absence of information.

Communication would help tremendously and would be actually good for business, I am convinced. Right now its a weird mixed signals kind of thing.

 

[SrMphoto]

Just for clarification, since you said "we expect" right below the mention of "CI and other dealers" - we (Capture Integration) know nothing, have shared nothing, beyond what has been stated publicly in terms of a potential new Sony sensor.


Steve Hendrix/CI

It is what I feared. Paul started the IQ5 rumor, and he is referencing and amplifying himself . I still hope it is true, but I will not base my future gear acquisition on the chance that IQ5 will materialize.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

It is what I feared. Paul started the IQ5 rumor, and he is referencing and amplifying himself . I still hope it is true, but I will not base my future gear acquisition on the chance that IQ5 will materialize.

I didn't start a rumor - every dealer I speak to and also trusted persons on the manufacturing side I know say they believe sth is coming. It is an industry-wide expectation.

Every single P1 dealer on this planet is waiting for new backs as this is where the juicy margins are, although volume has come down big time ofc from the good old days, but still, a new IQ5 is what the industry needs to survive. There's thousands of IQ2, IQ3 and IQ4s that could be upgraded.

Also you cannot fairly push 60k camera kits to consumers based on 2018 back tech, 20k XC lenses, if you are not planning to follow up with a longer-term perspective.

Every time I spoke to a P1 rep in the last years they said as soon as there's new Sony sensor we'll see new back products.

Photorumors also posted a while back that they heard a 250 megapixel mirrorless is in the works - let me translate: XC40 + IQ5.

An AF lens lineup is unlikely given that they just cobble together existing components or do low-effort R&D with the XC.

In that regard the XC40 was revelatory as this is P1's low R&D way to come to a "mirrorless" product. Hope is that means an EVF in the IQ5.

I am almost 99% certain we'll see an IQ5 after a new sensor has been announced.

 

[Steve Hendrix]

Steve,

I appreciate your clarification, but it highlights a broader issue. You've previously implied being shown new products behind closed doors by Phase One, yet you also state you know nothing beyond public information while selling their newest products and promoting the XC40. This is a bit problematic in view of the total "official" lack of clarity from P1 on the back business (I say official because if they don't do an IQ5 now after all the releases recently it would be very disappointing for all customers because part of such an expensive investment is also the belief that the system will prevail).

As a dealer selling expensive new products like the XC40 and 90mm Tilt XT for an aging IQ4 system, how do you reconcile this? Customers investing tens of thousands deserve more clarity on the system's future. Even if they don't deserve it, they might ask for it and then what is said?

Phase One's recent releases suggest ongoing commitment, but the silence on digital back development is uncool at best. "We know nothing" seems inadequate when customers are considering such significant investments – its weird because on the one hand it sometimes feels like they abandoned it, but then again are now opportunistically pushing it again a bit after XC sold a bit better than expected in Asia.

Given the professional nature of these tools and their long-term implications, don't you feel both dealers and Phase One owe customers more transparency? Whether it's about a potential IQ5 or just a development roadmap, any official stance would be better than the current information vacuum.

How do you balance customer interests with your dealer constraints in this situation? How do you address potential buyers' concerns about investing in the Phase One ecosystem given this uncertainty?

If someone walks into your store based on your XC40 youtube clip and then asks more generally about P1 - what do you say? Can you in earnest recommend at this stage for example full list price for an IQ4 + XC lens bundle at 60k USD or what it is (not sure if there's such a bundle and what the price is, I remember XC23 was bundled and cost beyond 50k at the beginning).

0 comms + new products of that price level is very strange and I wonder what the "official" marketing message is that someone gets nowadays when enquiring in the context of the new products (short tele, 90 SB, 40 XC) more generally about what to expect.

Their recent releases in my view imply strongly that an IQ5 will come, anything else would be extremely unfair towards all customers who recently bought XC stuff etc. because imagine you go to a dealer he implies there will be new products but there's no official statement and then next year boom you get a press release that P1 exits the business.

It would make anyone furious given the gear costs the equivalent of a great car - that's why I believe an IQ5 is very certain - it is implied by their behaviour as of late with starting to push again new products.

Imagine what a an official statement along the lines – "Dear P1 customers – we gotcha, we hear ya, your investment is future proof" would do: It would galvanize the remaining clientele, stabilize secondary market and make people wait for P1's new product before buying a Fuji / Hassy if they were considering switching. It just irks me we haven't had a statement to this effect post the Sony sensor announcement - it feels overly opportunistic to not want to lean too much out of the window towards their retail clientele - ie just to keep "option open" while at the same time releasing new lenses or not harm current IQ4 sales. To avoid that they could just more broadly state that they're long-term committed to photography - even that would be amazing after the total absence of information.

Communication would help tremendously and would be actually good for business, I am convinced. Right now its a weird mixed signals kind of thing.

It would be stupid for them to state something as "future proof". They may have even used this term in the past. No manufacturer should ever use that term, because there is no capability for them (anyone) to back that up. In reality, one could address "reasonable future compatibility" of some sort, but I don't know how to put that into words. Anyway ...

As for what we know, what we don't know, and what we're allowed to say: If we know something, and are allowed to (publicly) say it, we will. If we know something and cannot publicly say anything, we discreetly take that into account when counseling with our clients who wish to purchase from us. If we know nothing, we still assess the signs and the conditions for future purchase advisement based on our pretty darn good ear to the ground sense of things that we've tuned over many years serving this particular segment of the marketplace.

So, in the case of us saying anything, it means we may know something. If we're not saying anything publicly, it means we either know nothing, or are not allowed to speak of it, but may still be able to provide counsel directly to an individual truly interested. I've never discouraged anyone from contacting me to see what I know that I cannot publicly state.

As for Phase One, I can only agree 100% that communication can stand much improvement, especially at these price points. However, I can also appreciate that almost no manufacturer provides future roadmaps, especially for products that are well beyond a month or two out. Fuji is a notable exception (thank you Fuji!), though it must be said they have a track record only for lenses, not bodies. There are many valid reasons why manufacturers do not provide roadmaps. It doesn't mean that I am for this policy, in fact in the past I have advocated for more of a roadmap.

To summarize, I have no details to share publicly at this point with regard to an IQ5. Other than to say that the recent continuing development of the XT/XC platforms, including a completely new, non-Rodenstock lens, hints at continuation of the platform. I'd love to see a "We're not going anywhere" statement from Phase One, even without details, just something from the top giving encouragement to the end users who do value that platform. I'm not expecting this to happen, and I cannot affect change so that it does.


Steve Hendrix/CI

 

[Paul Spinnler]

To summarize, I have no details to share publicly at this point with regard to an IQ5. Other than to say that the recent continuing development of the XT/XC platforms, including a completely new, non-Rodenstock lens, hints at continuation of the platform. I'd love to see a "We're not going anywhere" statement from Phase One, even without details, just something from the top giving encouragement to the end users who do value that platform. I'm not expecting this to happen, and I cannot affect change so that it does.


Steve Hendrix/CI

Exactly my thoughts.

XC could evolve one day to an AF based system ... if they just could make their lenses attach to a tech cam body as well ... the XT XL ...

 

[glaiben]

I can see two sides to the scenario of disclosing future products. Yet, if I am a manufacturer or a dealer and disclose the IQ5 is imminent in 6-12-18 months, what happens to interim sales of a new IQ4? Seems like the IQ4 sales would drop in anticipation of the new product and they'd get stuck with excess inventory or at least have to mark down the sales price (as Nikon does with its releases), and therefore lessen the future trade-in value. Although, I suspect few P1 dealers carry any significant new IQ4 inventory, but they would certainly be ordering fewer new IQ4's.

 

[ThdeDude]

Looking at the release dates for HB's X System, we have:

06/2016 - X1D-50c

three years, one month

07/2019 - X1D-50c Mark II

three years, two months

09/2022 - X2D-100c

three years?, three months?

12/2025 - X2D-100c Mark II

This would suggest that at the end of next year we might see a X2D-100c Mark II and with that perhaps a CFV-100C Mark II.

At least something we technical camera users could reasonably look forward to for 2025. (Both X2D-100c and CFV-100C M have been rather bare-bone as to features.)

 

[Paul Spinnler]

Phase has not AT ALL communicated anything regarding a new back publicly - this is most likely a strategic decision to keep all options open.

It has to do with the private equity ownership and the need to sell the business at one point again; by not publicly committing to ANYTHING the new investors and the current investors have all options open to either continue or discontinue or do whatever with the photo hardware business.

On the practical side though it is clear that they have committed to more photography based on their actions and so I don't see any reason for them not being more vocal about photo other than not wanting to hurt current sales, especially considering that the business might be sold again in the not too distant future this might be an explanation.

In any case - the IQ5 seems a 2025 thing.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

C'mon people of the internet - get that subscriber count to 10k!

 

[edmundphoto888]

It would be stupid for them to state something as "future proof". They may have even used this term in the past. No manufacturer should ever use that term, because there is no capability for them (anyone) to back that up. In reality, one could address "reasonable future compatibility" of some sort, but I don't know how to put that into words. Anyway ...

As for what we know, what we don't know, and what we're allowed to say: If we know something, and are allowed to (publicly) say it, we will. If we know something and cannot publicly say anything, we discreetly take that into account when counseling with our clients who wish to purchase from us. If we know nothing, we still assess the signs and the conditions for future purchase advisement based on our pretty darn good ear to the ground sense of things that we've tuned over many years serving this particular segment of the marketplace.

So, in the case of us saying anything, it means we may know something. If we're not saying anything publicly, it means we either know nothing, or are not allowed to speak of it, but may still be able to provide counsel directly to an individual truly interested. I've never discouraged anyone from contacting me to see what I know that I cannot publicly state.

As for Phase One, I can only agree 100% that communication can stand much improvement, especially at these price points. However, I can also appreciate that almost no manufacturer provides future roadmaps, especially for products that are well beyond a month or two out. Fuji is a notable exception (thank you Fuji!), though it must be said they have a track record only for lenses, not bodies. There are many valid reasons why manufacturers do not provide roadmaps. It doesn't mean that I am for this policy, in fact in the past I have advocated for more of a roadmap.

To summarize, I have no details to share publicly at this point with regard to an IQ5. Other than to say that the recent continuing development of the XT/XC platforms, including a completely new, non-Rodenstock lens, hints at continuation of the platform. I'd love to see a "We're not going anywhere" statement from Phase One, even without details, just something from the top giving encouragement to the end users who do value that platform. I'm not expecting this to happen, and I cannot affect change so that it does.


Steve Hendrix/CI

Still not see the non- Rodie lens on P1 web, like the 150mm XT lens! but the XC 40 come out!

 

[akaru]

It would be stupid for them to state something as "future proof".

I mean, they called the platform “Infinity Platform” which implies “infinite time”. And they stated in the second sentence: “Learn more about the IQ4 Infinity Platform and where the future-proof system will evolve.”

IQ4 Infinity Platform

www.phaseone.com

I agree with you that no one should claim things they can’t back up, but the marketing on the IQ5 was, as I read it, “hardware that’s ready for the software we will build for it later”. Other than some basic stuff that never materialized, they did come up with great features over a good span of time. Five years in tech is just about infinite…

 

[Steve Hendrix]

I mean, they called the platform “Infinity Platform” which implies “infinite time”. And they stated in the second sentence: “Learn more about the IQ4 Infinity Platform and where the future-proof system will evolve.”

Let me re-phrase that - It was stupid for them to state something as "future proof'.


Steve Hendrix/CI

 

[edmundphoto888]

Let me re-phrase that - It was stupid for them to state something as "future proof'.


Steve Hendrix/CI

The P1 management have already been changed since the above "phrase"!

 

[Paul Spinnler]

They could have:

1) XT with tilt from the getgo, XT XL released a year later in 2021; X shutters released a year later for an ok price to third party manufacturers
2) IQ4+ with EVF port, bluetooth for triggering, EVF accessory (rebranded from some good manufacturer would have been ok), better I/O and onboard processing in 2021/22.
3) XC40 instead of XC23 and not priced at 20k, but 12k for a one-trick pony lens

C'mon its not that hard. They need to ship an awesome IQ5 ASAP, 54x40, 25k max upgrade price and make sure it has an EVF OPTION in 2025!!!

 

[georgecleansman]

If I may evaluate your esteemed expert opinions in this and other threads for myself, I have the impression that the further development of Phase One's photography business is at least doubtful.

However, I understand the justified enthusiasm of Phase One users who are hoping for another glorious future and that their equipment will retain its value.

In the future, professional photographers will no longer be able to invest in a high-priced IQ system to the same extent as before due to the decline in business and AI, because it can no longer be amortized.

In addition, Phase One itself does not know where the journey is going, as a sale of P1 to an investor with an unknown destination is expected in the future. Why should you invest in an expensive IQ4 if you don't know what the future holds?

And XC-23 and XC-40 are in my opinion rather toys for big boys than serious cameras. And a new XT XL with the automatic LLC that has been promised for years and an additional new shift option in portrait mode doesn't seem realistic to me.

My current impression is therefore that Hasselblad and Fuji will be the manufacturers to rely on in the future. And the advantage is also that the investments in these systems are affordable.