Another Kaufmann Interview (English)

[robmac]

Glen,

Realize his background, the lack of experience in the sector is an excellent point that you're wise to bring up - as was the Porsche example. Actually the analogy between Leica and a low-volume (e.g. lower than Porsche) exotic car maker such as Lambo, etc., is a fit one.

Me, I was drawing some analogies between the passion of an wealthy avid collector with (as you say) no technology/photo business background willing to acquire the producer of his 'hobby' (for lack of a better descriptor) and some ground-up 'better mousetrap' CEOs I knew.

Devoted passion in and of itself is admirable and can drive you thru challenging times - but more often that not it and cold-hard objectivity don't easily co-exist. In this case you need to realize your strength for the weakness it can become -- under the right (wrong?) circumstances and make @#$% sure those in your immediate circle posses such objectivity - and listen them.

As much as I hate to say it, Kaufmann's wealthy collector background, utter lack of experience in the sector and total control position (financially and managerially) IF he is surrounded by long-term Leica execs (as I suspect is the case) is one of THE classic recipes for gradual decline intermixed with various 'fits & start' attempts at a corprate re-work -- followed by an 11th hr bargain-basement acquisition.

Again, hope I'm wrong, but it will be interesting to watch regardless of the outcome. I'm sure many a B-School business case is being crafted based on the firm's current strategic position as we speak. Makes a very interesting case study.

 

[glenerrolrd]

Rob my name is Roger Dunham..glenerrolrd is my handle a street name. Before I retired I had a career as a management consultant and worked both large and smaller product/manufacturing clients. Everytime I ran a major program ...I was the person trying to effect change. In a typical assignment I would have worked for either Lee or Kaufmann. Lee was a client at best buy (not for me but my firm). I am sure you can size up his POV and strategy. He was never playing long term ..he wanted to make a big splash and turnaround the companies prospects. On the other side you had the existing management team .....not exactly a stellar track record over the past 10 years or so. The rest would be obvious to that 1st year MBA reading the case study. The dirty stick Lee inherited was the initial design and quality problems with the M8. This sucked away resources and funds from the new development teams .... so you can guess where the new products must stand. Now add in a world wide economic slow down and some decent competition from Nikon for the high end market. I don t think they can make it without a significant partnership with a stronger complimentary business. I sure hope they are working with some one . Roger

 

[robmac]

Roger - nice you 'meet' you. If we ever get the chance to have a beer, we could have some VERY interesting discussions. Reading your post, I started having flashbacks... ;>

After grad school I worked at Nortel in their M&A and Strategic Planning (a.k.a CEO Ego-Projects) Group, then on Bay & Wall Streets as a telecom analyst. Initially it was all laughs and giggles, but it was soon followed by my playing Don Quixote trying to get Pension Fund clients to stay AWAY from folks like Nortel (your perspective changes when your the guy who helped fold the skeletons into the closet).

Fed up tilting windmills, I left the Street to create a business/financial consulting team within a well known US optical communications market forecasting/consulting firm. All I can say is I must sub-consciously like to be challenged. Imagine a team of all Street analysts in a firm led and staffed almost exclusively by PhDs in Optics and EE.

My 'guys' spent 5 years rearranging the drywall in Palo Alto with our foreheads trying to point out the rather large dung-covered elephant in the room. To their credit, they eventually listened (and then some), but it was too late.

As you well know, when option-laden CEOs, bonused on yr/yr EPS growth pay $10,000+ per Powerpoint slide for warmed-over 'forecasts' that (coincidentally enough) tell them exactly what they want to hear (and repeat), not too many folks want to be the first to tell everyone the punch bowl is empty.

Like yourself, I firmly feel that if Leica doesn't find a complimentary (read control-position) 'partner' with deep pockets, an objective mindset and a decent service structure I don't hold a lot of hope. Again, as you say, lets hope they've got some discussions ongoing behind the curtain.

Cheers

Rob

 

[glenerrolrd]

Rob I am keeping my fingers crossed. :thumbup:

 

[robmac]

Amen brother - they offer too much value to see fade away.

 

[fotografz]

Cryptic and playful rhetoric.

"Incidentally we will show something else significant for the M system at Photokina, not just lenses."

He didn't say something "digital."

" ... rediscovering a few traditional product categories that Leica was famous for."

Hmmm. ???

 

[robsteve]

Cryptic and playful rhetoric.

"Incidentally we will show something else significant for the M system at Photokina, not just lenses."

He didn't say something "digital."

" ... rediscovering a few traditional product categories that Leica was famous for."

Hmmm. ???

Microscope related, such as the mount to put a M8 on a microscope?

What else were their traditional product categories?

Robert

 

[jaapv]

Visoflex?:grin:

 

[fotografz]

Microscope related, such as the mount to put a M8 on a microscope?

What else were their traditional product categories?

Robert

Spotting scopes with a M mount? Enlargers? ... best enlarger I ever owned was a Leica ... maybe a digital one ... LOL. Digital projector via Panasonic?

Maybe he's just f@#king with us :grin:

 

[Guy Mancuso]

I would like to see a small M or Cl type camera. Actually a small camera with a fixed 3 step lens 24/35/70 at 10 mpx. That I would buy

 

[sinwen]

I would like to see a small M or Cl type camera. Actually a small camera with a fixed 3 step lens 24/35/70 at 10 mpx. That I would buy

I am afraid they make this CLD with a 4/3 sensor for a low entry into the M digital system (low is a way to speak:grin:, I don't see it bellow 3K). Then the R10 has a great chance to have the same M8 sensor for the same rocket price.
I guess I will be out of the game still.

 

[Terry]

I am afraid they make this CLD with a 4/3 sensor for a low entry into the M digital system (low is a way to speak:grin:, I don't see it bellow 3K). Then the R10 has a great chance to have the same M8 sensor for the same rocket price.
I guess I will be out of the game still.

If Leica made a small camera like the DP1 with either an M8 sensor or a 4/3 sensor and good controls, I would be ecstatic.

 

[jonoslack]

Hi there

I would like to see a small M or Cl type camera. Actually a small camera with a fixed 3 step lens 24/35/70 at 10 mpx. That I would buy

If Leica made a small camera like the DP1 with either an M8 sensor or a 4/3 sensor and good controls, I would be ecstatic.

Absolutely - it's there to be made it really is - 4/3 would seem to be the obvious sensor size.

I'd be in heaven too! (but please could it have a Kodak rather than a Panasonic sensor?).

While we're about it, please could it have accurate electronic framelines as well

 

[Robert Campbell]

Canon has apparently ceased 35mm [SLR] camera production - I don't know about Nikon. Does that just leave Leica among 'serious' makers producing bodies for 35mm - the film is still available.

So, if digital is the way 'forward', then to survive, Leica must introduce a DSLR - at full frame or close to it. And given their customer base, with lots of R lenses, it must be backwards compatible. Whether they can produce a model in time for Photokina is a different problem - they can hardly exist on M series alone, and relegate R series to the dustbin of history. They have the experience of the digital module; 'all' they need to do is repackage it in an R series body. Doing this might well stretch their resources - and autofocus lenses might be a step too far at present - and they might see these as deviating from Leica purity.

 

[robmac]

Your logic is on the money, but the question is if, as Kaufmann as been quoted as saying, the M line is their "flagship" product and with VERY limited resources vs. C or N or Sony, and with no AF body experience, how much effort/attention will (or can) they put into a new AF DSLR and lens line given the miniscule (relative) market share they can expect to, best case, win?

If (any) new body is MF only, any winnable share will be far, far, far smaller. An uber-premium (lets assume) manual focus "DMRII" may win over Leicaphiles, but will do nothing for the firm's growth prospects. Any pro-DSLR effort has to beat the competition in terms of resolution, match the average in terms of ISO, WB, AF performance and flash control, be introduced with a handful of F2.8 zooms covering up to 200mm (to start), be produced in volume, priced (body & lenses) to sell to a wider (for Leica) market and ride hand-in-hand with an improved service organization.

My fear/feeling is that: a) they may have waited too long to take a strike a the full-fledge pro DSLR market and b) Herr K may be thinking more like an wealthy avid (I assume) M collector vs. a professional photog.

My gut feel - they focus on M and have sidebar efforts with say Panasonic with bridge cameras (that may take R glass) that don't distract them for what they see as their 'Mission' yet bring in some decent cash flow.

 

[jonoslack]

Any pro-DSLR effort has to beat the competition in terms of resolution, match the average in terms of ISO, WB, AF performance and flash control, be introduced with a handful of F2.8 zooms covering up to 200mm (to start), be produced in volume, priced (body & lenses) to sell to a wider (for Leica) market and ride hand-in-hand with an improved service organization.

Absolutely Rob . . . and how could they POSSIBLY do that? Panasonic don't have the experience, and although a closer relationship with Olympus might help, it seems that they don't have the will/ability to do this either.

Currently, the M series doesn't really have any competition, and there is an (albeit small) demand. There are plenty of excellent dSLR systems out there already, and it sounds like Nikon will be bringing a 24mp FF body to market in the next month or so.

But I do think there are market niche's which could prove lucrative - there very clearly IS a market for a high quality compact with a decent sized sensor, I'd have thought they might be in a position to do something there, and I still think there's life in the M system without a huge amount of changes (accurate electronic rangefinder lines and a few extra controls would probably do it for most of us).

But I'd have thought that the prospect for the R10 has changed from an unlikely contender to a suicide bid over the last year or so.

To be honest, if rumours of a Nikon rangefinder prove to be true, I'll worry about Leica's existence at all.

 

[robmac]

As much as it is hard to say, I agree entirely re: any true pro-body R10 would be a suicide bid. As a 'bird under glass' at Photokina to try and juice up a potential bid for the firm, maybe - as long as there was some solid R&D under that glass that any due diligence would back up. Leica's ability to DESIGN a nice R10 is a LOT different that Leica's ability/suitability to MAKE (in volume) at the right price and quickly service/support a nice R10.

If a nice Nikon digi RF comes into being as the rumors suggest, Leica has got a SERIOUS issue on it's hands. As you say, I do think many folks, pros and snappers would love the idea of an M8esque body for low light, Street, as an '"...oh... @#$..." backup to a DSLR, and as a camera of opportunity; BUT it has to be at the right price (for a decent kit) and with a support structure that is at least no worse in turn around time/effort than what people now get from C and N.

A Summarit-priced M9, assuming they don't lobotomize the camera, would obviously help, but the service and support work will take a lot more time and effort to evolve.

 

[jonoslack]

A Summarit-priced M9, assuming they don't lobotomize the camera, would obviously help, but the service and support work will take a lot more time and effort to evolve.

Well, let's hope Leica do it first . . . .let's see
sensor like the D3
Auto ISO with useable 6400 ISO (like the D3)
accurate rangefinder lines (electronic)

Is it too much to ask?:ROTFL:

 

[robmac]

uh..I guess no more than a church with a bar in it :clap:

Concept should be universal (that and giving folks like me immunity at the door from smiting or what have you) - would make sweating your ____ off during endless hot muggy weddings a LOT easier to take.

That said, it wasn't really still church, being de-hallowed and all, so I guess your wish list may be a bit 'rich'.

On other hand, crop the D3 sensor down to 1.5, do that micro-lens stuff, leave the AA filter on the shop floor, metal/polycarbonate body, on demand VF grid lines...... could have something there.

(for those not familiar, above is related to another thread...)