Leica pricing on the used market

[monza]

Not wishing to argue, but this is just simple supply and demand in a global market, combined with a very low dollar (and I won't get into why that is.)

Ordering 5 lenses from 5 dealers doesn't create a stock shortage; it just creates back orders. Leica only makes a relative handful of lenses in a given time period, there are simply more buyers than sellers in the current market.

The price boosts are not just on the current lenses...

 

[Double Negative]

Not wishing to argue, but this is just simple supply and demand in a global market, combined with a very low dollar (and I won't get into why that is.)

Ordering 5 lenses from 5 dealers doesn't create a stock shortage; it just creates back orders. Leica only makes a relative handful of lenses in a given time period, there are simply more buyers than sellers in the current market.

The price boosts are not just on the current lenses...

Not seen as arguing, just passionate discussion.

But see, the "supply and demand" IMO, is lopsided and somewhat artificial. Of course we all know about the issues as far as the Japanese supply chain, the weak dollar, Leica's limited production, etc. But I think people gaming the system are also contributing.

It does create a shortage if they buy all five and sell 4-5 of them off for a personal profit! If they had no interest in actually keeping the lens, they shouldn't be ordering them. Or calling the dealer to say "let someone else have it." But I do believe this is more the exception than the rule. Why else would we see so many "LNIB" listings? Buyers remorse? Bullsh!t. Maybe some of the time. But like I said; call up the dealer and say "pass it on to the next person."

Naturally, this affects used lenses as well as a result. I'm certainly not suggesting they're immune.

 

[corposant]

I'm curious as to why people see this as a bubble? Demand for Leica is increasing a lot, and there seems to be no indication of Leica increasing supply.

I see the pricing as a trend and it would not surprise me if Leica is doing it as part of a longer term strategy to increase prices to match the used market, considering its obvious people are willing and able to pay such prices.

I can't imagine dealers are happy when consumers are buying at retail and selling at a profit. So Leica will either have to increase supply or increase prices to level out the market, new and used.

Economically, it can only be considered a bubble if:

1. There is a sudden supply surge (Leica can mitigate demand outstripping supply)
2. There is a sudden drop in demand (People en masse lose interest in photography or a large decline in wealth can't support Leica's prices)

#1 is unlikely, unless they invent a new product that can be mass-produced and deflects interest from their M line. #2 is possible, but more likely due to the latter case, not the former.

 

[monza]

I disagree, there is no shortage creation. There are still 5 lenses on the market in that scenario.

I sold a Leica lens for $1500 yesterday...I couldn't give this particular model away in 2009, I dumped them for $350-400. A 25 year old lens. I just put it up for sale, the auction and the bidders determined the price. The fact remains that the market is up, the demand is high. And no, this lens did not sell to Asia.

 

[Double Negative]

I disagree, there is no shortage creation. There are still 5 lenses on the market in that scenario.

I sold a Leica lens for $1500 yesterday...I couldn't give this particular model away in 2009, I dumped them for $350-400. A 25 year old lens. I just put it up for sale, the auction and the bidders determined the price. The fact remains that the market is up, the demand is high. And no, this lens did not sell to Asia.

Okay, agreed - but let me rephrase that, then. There's no shortage in the market - just from Leica directly. However, those "extras" floating around now are being sold at increasingly gouged prices when instead they could've been bought directly for what they're actually listed for. I sure won't be lining the pockets of sellers just because. I can wait.

Of course, there are a LOT of different issues at play in the market right now. People new to Leica, people adapting lenses to other platforms, declining stocks of old/vintage stuff, earthquakes, crappy economies, yada yada yada... My gripe(s) are mostly aimed at a particular issue.

 

[monza]

Yes, that's the issue, the shortage from Leica directly.

It's like any spot market. You can wait, and buy at retail, or you can buy now and pay for the convenience.

 

[Double Negative]

Yes, that's the issue, the shortage from Leica directly.

It's like any spot market. You can wait, and buy at retail, or you can buy now and pay for the convenience.

That's kind of my point though. The "shortage from Leica" wouldn't be as bad if people ordered lenses they actually intended on keeping and/or ordering only ONE. Granted, I'm sure the actual percentage of this being the case is probably small - but the effect does add up globally. Of course, if more were available for actual list price... More people would be buying them directly - so in the end, we'd likely still have to wait.

 

[monza]

It's just like iPads after the first few weeks of launch, except unlike Apple, Leica hasn't stepped up to fill the demand.

They could solve the issue by raising prices...what would you prefer?

Can't stop the free market. If there is a profit to be made, there will be people to take advantage.

 

[Woody Campbell]

All I know is that I'm not selling any Leica gear. Best investment ever. And I use it every day.

 

[David K]

I guess it's fair to characterize the lack of lenses as a shortage but it's not an artificial one. Anybody remember Cabbage Patch Kids The real culprit, IMHO, is the skyrocketing demand from Asia. I suspect Leica is producing more lenses now then they ever have...it's just that demand has accelerated at an even higher pace.

 

[leicashot]

I also blame the consumers, but i guess if you're rich $8k is like $8 to many of us, so what can we do?

 

[corposant]

I also blame the consumers, but i guess if you're rich $8k is like $8 to many of us, so what can we do?

Don't forget that wealthy people also view Leica gear as a collectible item. I have noticed some people who I have bought used Leica gear from (i.e. lenses that may have been manufactured 10 years ago but look like they have never been used) also collect things like rare watches or have "weekend cars." Basically anything that's carefully made and in short supply attracts these people... all the better that they all have practical functions, like telling the time or getting from one place to another.

While I think it's disappointing that these people often crowd out photographers who would likely use these lenses rather than display them in a case, they generally do sell them eventually in the secondary market, often for less than retail (but more than what they paid for them).

 

[leicashot]

Don't forget that wealthy people also view Leica gear as a collectible item. I have noticed some people who I have bought used Leica gear from (i.e. lenses that may have been manufactured 10 years ago but look like they have never been used) also collect things like rare watches or have "weekend cars." Basically anything that's carefully made and in short supply attracts these people... all the better that they all have practical functions, like telling the time or getting from one place to another.

While I think it's disappointing that these people often crowd out photographers who would likely use these lenses rather than display them in a case, they generally do sell them eventually in the secondary market, often for less than retail (but more than what they paid for them).

I think the 'less than retail' concept is a thing of the past, which is why we now see one seller here capitalizing - not being negative, just a fact.

 

[Jan Brittenson]

Economically, it can only be considered a bubble if:

1. There is a sudden supply surge (Leica can mitigate demand outstripping supply)
2. There is a sudden drop in demand (People en masse lose interest in photography or a large decline in wealth can't support Leica's prices)

A bubble is a condition where rising prices creates speculative demand which drives up prices. It's demand-side, although high elasticity of supply is a prerequisite. But any condition of demand increasing faster than supply is not a bubble, it's simply basic elementary elasticity which sets prices. There is no bubble in Leica lenses; people buy $4000 lenses for $5000 because they want to use them and can afford to pay, not because they think it's a good speculative investment. They're well aware they'll never see that money again.

 

[patashnik]

In my opinion, there are two ways of approaching this.


1) The stock market model
If the market price for these lenses are well above retail, I can't see the problem with selling them at these inflated prices. What is the alternative? Sell them at a more "reasonable" price? In that case, you're just leaving profit on the table for the buyer. If I'm selling a lens, and there is profit to be made, I'm not gonna give that profit to some guy on a forum, which I never met (or will meet) in real life.

2) The artist/photographer model
Cameras and lenses are to be purchased by photographers who are gonna use them, not people investing in them for later sales.

The problem with Leica is that if you keep anything for a year or two, you're more or less doomed to make a profit. Of course, you can choose to give this profit to the next guy, and only charge what you paid for it (or less), that is up to you.

Everyone has the option of getting on a waiting list for these sought after lenses, it's not some secret club. Personally, I believe that Leica should raise the prices with immediate effect. To me, as a Leica user, I would highly prefer the profit to go back into the company that design and build these lenses - not some guy with a business model.

If some of you happen to be in Norway/Oslo, visit Interfoto - they have a 50mm Summilux ASPH in stock. After you deduct the VAT, you'll pay around $3900. A bit above retail for you US guys, but at least better than some of those $5000-lenses I've seen floating around.

Or you can wait a week or so for me to get my 35mm pre-ASPH Summilux back from Sherry Krauter, and buy some classic Leica glass for half that price

 

[leicashot]

Cameras like this ain't exactly gonna help the Leica used market come down

http://dpreview.com/previews/ricohgxrmountA12/

 

[glenerrolrd]

Robert

I think we are using an incorrect analogy . Its more complicated as new super buyers have entered the market distorting the supply demand situation . Not at all like concert tickets they buy up everything and then attempt to control the market at much higher prices. As long as they are confident that supply can t be increased they are safe to buy and hold at prices well above true market . In essence they create a synthetic demand that keeps prices high.

They are scalpers . They do great damage to Leica s dealer network by making the whole M systems to expensive for most and taking profits that should be going to the future Leica network.

This is easy to break up. The French took out all the scalpers at the French Open by requiring every ticket to be registered to a specific owner . You can resell your tickets at list thru the ticket system and they will be available at list to a new buyer . This makes it almost impossible for a scalper to get in the middle .

Lenses buyers might not care but buy a “new “ S2 from non authorized source and it can be stopped right at the warranty registration.

Forum members that keep “testing the market” with crazy prices aren t participating in the spirit of this forum .

And think it doesn t hurt the dealers? consider this scenario. Five members on a local wait list ..they want to support their local guy ...they hang with him on sat morning and they want to buy local or from someone they trust.
The first three are the uber buyers (they buy everything new that comes out ) . So the dealer gets 2 noctiluxes ..the only two he is getting this year. He sells them to number 1 and number 2 . The other three on the wait list ...wait and wait for a year .. Then they get pissed off and put orders out everywhere . Then the two that got their Noctiluxes sell them on GETdpi for a healthy profit to a buyer in HK (makes the story better). And to make things better they brag about how much they made on the sale. :thumbdown:

Not wishing to argue, but this is just simple supply and demand in a global market, combined with a very low dollar (and I won't get into why that is.)

Ordering 5 lenses from 5 dealers doesn't create a stock shortage; it just creates back orders. Leica only makes a relative handful of lenses in a given time period, there are simply more buyers than sellers in the current market.

The price boosts are not just on the current lenses...

 

[David K]

Forum members that keep “testing the market” with crazy prices aren t participating in the spirit of this forum .
:thumbdown:

Agree with this wholeheartedly...it's distasteful. Take it to the bay where there is no spirit of community.

 

[Terry]

Since many of the posters on this thread seem to also be involved on the buy/sell I will make a comment here as well.

All of the bickering about intentions, price policing, etc that is going on with the buy/sell forum is getting old and must stop. We are actively moderating the threads, deleting inappropriate posts, closing threads, and giving warnings.

If there is a problem on a thread, please don't exacerbate the situation by replying. Just report the posts and the moderators will do their job and moderate.

There are so many buy/sell transactions that it is hard to look at them all so your cooperation and assistance is appreciated.

Thanks.

 

[Bob]

Since many of the posters on this thread seem to also be involved on the buy/sell I will make a comment here as well.

All of the bickering about intentions, price policing, etc that is going on with the buy/sell forum is getting old and must stop. We are actively moderating the threads, deleting inappropriate posts, closing threads, and giving warnings.

If there is a problem on a thread, please don't exacerbate the situation by replying. Just report the posts and the moderators will do their job and moderate.

There are so many buy/sell transactions that it is hard to look at them all so your cooperation and assistance is appreciated.

Thanks.

Terry,
You are too nice :ROTFL:
it is getting so tiresome that the moderators are at the verge of issuing bans "to make an example".
Please don't let it be you.
-bob