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Thread: Leica 5/10 Prediction

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    Workshop Member glenerrolrd's Avatar
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    Leica 5/10 Prediction

    As I watch the selling of M9 s and now s2 bodies in anticipation ...thought it might be worth putting my forecast out for 5/10 in Berlin.

    The product with be a special edition Black and white M9 . It will be sold in a kit and will include a new 50/2 asph summicron. The new camera will incorporate some of the future M10 features (maybe viewfinder, maestro mini processor ,battery, new cards etc) . The key feature though will be a sensor/processor thats turned specifically for Black and White . It will cost about $15K or more in a kit and leica will produce a few thousand.

    Ok now the logic .....

    1. Leica can internally not produce any more lenses per month before the new factory opens . Because the start up strategy for the new factory is to close the old and bring up the new on the same day (this is what we used to call the big bang strategy) ....there will be significant drop in lens capacity in the first quarter of 2013 .

    2. M capacity is fixed at about 1000 per month . Dealers are reporting lost sales due to lack of availability of lenses and have you seen the used as new sales of the M9P from the dealers . Plus new cameras like the Fuji x pro 1 and new 7 and now the Nikon s are stripping many of the new Leica buyers . So go back to the established base .....M9/M8 owners that want the newest . Most buyers of a black and white M9 would have their lenses . This allows the production capacity to be used for a possibly higher priced unit (or maybe higher margin) .

    3. Leica is moving hard to a new distribution and retail strategy that is based on the LEICA STORE . The key to the Leica Store is to create traffic that can experience the products (like the Apple Store to some extent). Leica stores will have small galleries and some will be able to handle some small group instruction. Think of the special events you could have with the MAGNUM photographers and the link into the Leica Akademie . This is a great time to build the network of stores ..almost one at a time with grand openings etc.

    4. The Portugal factory will (again)play a key part in Leica s production strategy but its not ready . My guess is that Leica will produce an EVF camera made from many outsourced components . Assembled in Portugal and tested in Solms . This will be a world sourcing approach with significant outside content. Not sure if they will try to make the lenses for the LEVIL here .

    This would allow Leica to make a big splash .....especially if the M/BW has best in class IQ . I can see 3 Magnum greats on the stage telling about the new camera in Berlin. The marketing guys would have a field day with special events based on classic BW photography and it would draw significant crowds to the Leica Stores . The first book from Leica publishing would be taken with the M/BW by Magnum photographers in Berlin.

    Does this make sense ? Stop ditching your M9 s and S2 s nothing until Photokina and no availability until this time next year .

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Roger, Post #71 has here http://forum.getdpi.com/forum/leica-...tml#post408502 says something else.

    I hope it is a liveview cam.

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    Workshop Member glenerrolrd's Avatar
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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Never sure if the rumors are just circular . This one started on Leica Rumors about a month ago. Its a distinct possibility but I believe its unlikely . My understanding is that to use the Dalsa chip set Leica will have to redo the camera processor and firmware . The driving force to an early introduction of the M10 would be the need to change the sensor from the existing Kodak model . If Leica can t get the existing sensors to maintain production levels this of course could be a reason to rush yet another M to market .

    I am not throwing out a rumor ....I am making a prediction based on a collection of what I believe are facts . Leica surprised me with the M9 and I would be happy with an M10 and any improvements . This would be consistent with the dealers dumping their M9P s .

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    15k seems like a lot even in Leicaland. The new Cron asph will likely cost--what?--$3000 or a bit more. That would mean the b&w M9 would cost almost $12k?! Anyway, I hope Leica also announces a "normal" M10 for the fall ...

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    I think the price is right if it is a true monochrome camera. There isn't any in this format for any price.

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    Workshop Member glenerrolrd's Avatar
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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    My post is just a prediction based on known facts and experience in developing business strategies . When a business is capacity limited they need to make good choices on what to produce . Selling any new camera that requires lenses made in Solms or Wetzler before the new factory is up and running seems inappropriate .

    Plenty of unknowns .

    1. Does Leica have adequate supply of M9 sensors to keep making them until after Photokina ?

    2. How far along are they on the design and manufacturing of the EVF camera ? This one requires a partnership and probably the Portugal factory to pull off.

    3. Does Leica feel any need to introduce an S3 with a 60-70MP sensor ? This is low volume and could be done .

    4.Why would Leica introduce product so far before Photokina ?

    I don t know ..just making educated guesses based on Leica s viewpoint verse what I want .

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    Workshop Member glenerrolrd's Avatar
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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Check out Leica Rumors latest post ...B&W M9 no M10

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Interesting.

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Roger,
    Interesting prediction on the limited edition BW camera. This would be easy to pull off using the existing body shell of the M9 with modifications to the circuitry and sensor carrier. As far as price, I agree that it could be up there, Leica is not shy when it comes to that.

    BTW on Leica Rumors they had a write up of a shortage of spare sensors for the M9 when coming in for repair. In one case, the camera was new enough that they just sent a new one to the customer.

    As always, you know when a new camera from Leica is coming out when you see the special editions surface, with the M8 it was the white and safari editions. For now I do not feel compelled to dump my M9 I have learned the limitations and love the simplicity. I don't think a single purposed camera is what I want or need nor do I think adding features that I will not use such as live view.

    -Al
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    Workshop Member glenerrolrd's Avatar
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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    My prediction was based on the Leica Rumor post from last month ...but today he seems to be confirming it as well as no M10 until Photokina.

    A B&W M9 can create some real buzz even if its not a good fit for most M users . If the IQ and high ISO performance is worth talking about ....it will be different than the cosmetics often found in limited editions. A limited edition would allow Leica to test the demand for a B&W only body .

    But I was just developing a hypothesis around what Leica will introduce and why.

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    I don't know if it will be a test of the demand for a BW only camera. Like the Titan, it will only sit on collectors shelves if the price is too high and not be used. To really test demand they would have to set a true market price. Leica, unlike other brands tends to gather more dust on shelves than images. Those with deep pockets buy up the special editions for their collections and never take a shot.

    The best test of viability would be to offer an upgrade of the existing sensor to a B&W only solution or you can buy one off the shelf. Either way it will give the body production line something to do as their lens counterparts work their @$$3$ off
    Al Tanabe my website https://www.altanabe.com

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    that's a great idea let people trade in their color sensors for BW, and then use those traded-in sensors to help with the repair sensor shortage!
    David Young
    My journey into Leica: LeicaLux.com

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    A few weeks to go. Given how many Digital Leica images are converted to monochrome, I would expect it to be popular. If it has a removable IR absorbing filter, the scientific market would be very interested.

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian S View Post
    A few weeks to go. Given how many Digital Leica images are converted to monochrome, I would expect it to be popular. If it has a removable IR absorbing filter, the scientific market would be very interested.
    Brian, Then it has to have live view possibility to deal with focus shifts (real big unlike the regular Summilux or C-Sonnar variations!). This is what forced me to let go of the digital RF (with the Epson R-D1s) and look for alternates.

    With the current live view technology and the ability to "see" in Infrared or even UV in real time, it is simply fabulous.

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    Workshop Member glenerrolrd's Avatar
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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Of course no one knows how Leica makes decisions ....but limited editions that lead to market viable products is a decent strategy .

    Thinking like the manager of production. I have capacity for say 1000 M bodies per month. I don t want to try to increase this much until the new plant is ready . I can produce say 500 M9P and 500 M9M per month May/June/July . They close the plant in August and make the first batch of the M10 starting in September . Thats a limited edition run of 1500-2000 M9M . If they charge a limited edition premium and include the new 50 sum micron asph , they can increase the value of the M body production by say 30-40% and maybe double the profit margins.

    It also eliminates the build up of M9P s just before the M10 and provides the Leica Stores with stuff that will sell.

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Currently, When I use a full-spectrum camera, I use all Apochromatic lenses. Nikkor ED glass, or a Pentax 85/4.5 Ultra-Achromat.

    The older Summicrons are color corrected to the point that the IR focus shift is within the F2 DOF marks. Stopping down to F4 with many of the Leica lenses is good enough. Even the old 5cm F1.5 Summarit is good to go at F2.

    The RF optical viewfinder is fine for most purposes when used with a well-corrected lens.
    Last edited by Brian S; 17th April 2012 at 16:22.

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Brain, I will PM as it will become too OT. I am quite well equipped to do imaging from far UV to far IR. Still a lot of impediments, especially wrt to focus shift.

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by glenerrolrd View Post
    Of course no one knows how Leica makes decisions ....but limited editions that lead to market viable products is a decent strategy .

    Thinking like the manager of production. I have capacity for say 1000 M bodies per month. I don t want to try to increase this much until the new plant is ready . I can produce say 500 M9P and 500 M9M per month May/June/July . They close the plant in August and make the first batch of the M10 starting in September . Thats a limited edition run of 1500-2000 M9M . If they charge a limited edition premium and include the new 50 sum micron asph , they can increase the value of the M body production by say 30-40% and maybe double the profit margins.

    It also eliminates the build up of M9P s just before the M10 and provides the Leica Stores with stuff that will sell.
    Interesting line of thought, Roger.

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Very interesting thoughts, Roger. Forget an M10 with all of the advanced electronic doodads like video and live view to impress the gear heads. A black and white only M9 like you've described with a sensor/processor specifically tuned to maximize black and white captures would definitely have me interested. It would be an excellent tool for street photography and photojournalism.

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Roger, do you really think they would attempt the big bang? What do you guess are the odds of pulling that off?

    There have been conflicting reports regarding Leica-owned stores on this forum, but that has indeed now been confirmed. If Leica will be moving to this distribution model they have no choice but to rectify their production issues. The Apple model works, only if there is sufficient product flow...retail space is costly if there is nothing to move out the door.

    If they do move in this direction, I would venture the monochrome body would be priced significantly lower, although I can also see them offering it as a special edition as you speculate...

    Interesting times...

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Kaufmann indicated in one of his interviews that they would be using an all at once conversion strategy and compared it to the Munich Airport conversion (shut down old and start new on the same day). This is the least expensive approach to conversion ..if as you say they believe they can pull it off.

    Two big constraints for Leica . One is the all new equipment with significantly higher capacity and two is the historical bias to increase the number of technicians gradually . The same technicians in short supply are required to test and learn the new processes and also train additional new technicians . So a piece of the production capacity is lost to the conversion. This capacity loss will occur primarily in the first quarter of 2013.

    Not all Leica Stores are company owned (like Apple) . There will be a gradual transition of product allocations to favor the company stores and the capacity constraints should be overcome in 2013. I do see some dragging of the feet on getting the new stores operational and this may be to avoid the empty shelf problem .

    The pricing on the M9P will depend on whether its a limited edition or a full commitment to a monochrome version. I can only guess that they will go will limited edition pricing because they can . Then the m10 could be offered in two versions .

    It would be out of character for Leica to introduce a lower priced version in order to increase demand . This would just create a surge beyond their capacity . Better an over priced but unique object of desire . They will get a lot of press and forum coverage due to the unique aspects of a monochrome product .

    IMHO this strategy seems to hang together ....but I am guessing .

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    The only camera Leica need to release this year is the EVIL system. Without that the company can't move forward. So I hope it isn't a B&W only M9, or even an M10. For sure they haven't yet exhausted special edition possibilities for the M9, but even a B&W version is only window dressing, and they are still selling plenty of regular M9's anyway.

    Steve

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    I am totally confused what will be announced...kind of strange how much I am interested in such announcements even though the cameras I have do work quite well for me.

    Isnt it funny - in my case it is not so much: I need this feature, I need more resolution or I need different lenses. The teqhnical eqipment doesnt feel limiting at all right now.
    It is more like: Lets see what they announce, and once it is announce slowly the feeling is growing that one urgently needs (or wants it)
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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Probably impossible to keep this straight ..but the post is just my prediction based on some pretty decent facts . Right now Leica isn t concerned about selling more ..they can t make the lenses that are on order nor can they properly service their dealers ...old and new. I know for example that Leica can does not plan to increase lens production until they get into the new plant . So why would they introduce anything that depends on lens production for its success.

    They can however divert part of their existing M9 product capacity to make a monochrome version . Since this would undoubtably go to current M users it would not add substantially to the lens demand .

    They could release an S3 but this seems unlikely ..they are sitting on a significant backlog for CS lenses . I guess you could argue that they will have significant S lenses taken in trade but this seems small volume .

    You could also guess that the volume of small sensor sales has dropped off to the point that its a financial concern ..so they need the x1 refresh .

    The monochrome M9 makes the most sense because they seem to be able to do it and it fits with other existing strategies .

    Its still a guess at this point.

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    Senior Member JohnW's Avatar
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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by KurtKamka View Post
    ...A black and white only M9 like you've described with a sensor/processor specifically tuned to maximize black and white captures would definitely have me interested....
    One man's maximize is another man's minimize. The ability to render gray tones digitally using color channels is revolutionary, in my view. Do we want a manufacturer to map those tones for us? Or go back to using colored filters?

    Would it not be better for Leica to release a BW conversion preset for LR/PS? Firmware, software, what's the net difference?

    I must be missing something, because I sure don't get the appeal of a BW-only sensor. Even for a niche company this seems like an uber-niche product.

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by JohnW View Post
    One man's maximize is another man's minimize. The ability to render gray tones digitally using color channels is revolutionary, in my view. Do we want a manufacturer to map those tones for us? Or go back to using colored filters?

    Would it not be better for Leica to release a BW conversion preset for LR/PS? Firmware, software, what's the net difference?

    I must be missing something, because I sure don't get the appeal of a BW-only sensor. Even for a niche company this seems like an uber-niche product.

    John
    Hi John
    I quite agree with you about converting on the colour channels - it would, indeed, be a pain to have to use filters all the time. I like my big dark skies with white puffy clouds converted on the red channel

    But, for people and street that's not so significant, whereas improved resolution and improved high ISO resulting from removing the bayer filter might be very significant.

    Added to which, there's no need to do the B&W conversion (I know, I know, it's not a big deal in Lightroom or Aperture).

    So, whilst I agree that it would be a niche product, I'd have said there would be quite a lot of people interested.

    all the best

    PS - I really like your websites.

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    What confuses me is the product announcement of May 10 being published in March...based on past history, many people therefore assumed "M10 on May 10." Whether or not this is correct, it completely killed dealer sales of new M9s, and now there are many used ones on the market, with the prices dropping daily. This is not the way to service a dealer channel.

    As a result, dealers that had M9s and M9Ps in stock are now dumping them (many via the tactic you mentioned previously, listing new cameras as "used with under 5 actuations" which is an ethical discussion in and of itself.)

    Although the Apple rumor mill is always churning, you'd never see them make an official announcement of a product launch two months in advance...
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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Keep in mind that Leica s strategies are evolving as they move toward the new facilities. They have done a 360 degree change since Steve Lee was president and the M8 started the change to digital in a meaningful way . They took on Blackstone as a investor and I am sure they have outside help on their overall business strategy .

    I believe that following the Paris event with Magnum they are continuing down a path of unique niche products for “serious photographers” . Berlin is nicely timed for another special edition run that can create significant interest and some short term boast in profit .

    As to the need or market viability ...who knows ..but my bet will be that they will sell all they decide to make. And we still have no “official word” from Leica just speculation.

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    If I were a shareholder, I would want them to make all that they could sell, rather than sell all they decide to make I assume this is no different for Blackstone.

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by monza View Post
    If I were a shareholder, I would want them to make all that they could sell, rather than sell all they decide to make I assume this is no different for Blackstone.
    Hi Robert
    Yes indeed - but you don't want to make more than you can sell, because if you do, then secondhand prices will drop, and skinflints like me would think twice about spending large amounts of money on lenses which will drop in value.

    all the best

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Yes. Always make one less than the market demands.
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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Hi Jono,

    Yes, I see your point and agree. It would be a unique and special camera.

    But I shoot street and almost always adjust some tone a little--usually yellow/green of foliage and red/orange of skin. I'm pretty sure for me the trade-off would not be worth any potential IQ improvements. Plus, I'd miss all that channel fiddling.

    Thanks for the compliment on the sites.

    John

    Quote Originally Posted by jonoslack View Post
    Hi John
    I quite agree with you about converting on the colour channels - it would, indeed, be a pain to have to use filters all the time. I like my big dark skies with white puffy clouds converted on the red channel

    But, for people and street that's not so significant, whereas improved resolution and improved high ISO resulting from removing the bayer filter might be very significant.

    Added to which, there's no need to do the B&W conversion (I know, I know, it's not a big deal in Lightroom or Aperture).

    So, whilst I agree that it would be a niche product, I'd have said there would be quite a lot of people interested.

    all the best

    PS - I really like your websites.

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Please, let the 5/10 announcement be a B&W camera, it'll save me a small fortune that I can spend elsewhere.

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    It would be a fine line that Leica are drawing between a unique luxury product against a product aimed at people so inept that they can't use Lightroom to convert a colour image into B&W. There must be more to it than that, mustn't there? Maybe it will have a film advance lever to cock the shutter, that would be cool.

    Steve

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    Re: Leica 5/10 Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by monza View Post
    If I were a shareholder, I would want them to make all that they could sell, rather than sell all they decide to make I assume this is no different for Blackstone.
    Capacity is essentially fixed by two decisions (1)new factory will open in 2013(and we don t want to expand the old factory) and (2) Leica does t want to outsource production of any core products . So you can make say 1000 M s per month ....but you can sell more than that . Therefore you look at the product contribution to profit and balance the mix to make as much as you can without screwing up the long term .

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