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Leica price bubble finally bursting?

MSUSpartan

New member
A FLE just sold for USD 4,750 on eBay: Auction

I think this is what life is like before the M9 right? Finally prices are back down to earthly levels (high rise penthouse, not walkups). I welcome this with open arms. I don't want to pay over Leica's already high MSRP for used lenses.
 

algrove

Well-known member
That used price is still pretty high considering a brand new one costs about $250 more than this.
 

4season

Well-known member
My impression is that tulip, err Leica mania peaked sometime in 2011. M9 camera bodies have been readily available for some time now, and it looks like lenses are slowly becoming available from stock too: As I write this, the 18/3.8, 28/2.8, 75/2.5 and 50/2 are in-stock at B&H.

The days of flipping a Summilux for a quick $1K profit are probably over, but prices for used lenses are still really high compared to circa 2006, when you might've gotten the original Tri-Elmar for $1200, or a non-asph 90/2 for $800.
 

ashwinrao1

Active member
Yup, prices have dropped, but with times comes price fluxes.... Leica is also ramping up production to meet demand, not just from M shooters, but from M4/3 and NEX/Fuji Compact APS-C shooters...prices will rise and fall, but we are in a bit of a lull at the moment...get while the gettin's good...
 

sirimiri

Member
MSUSpartan said:
...I think this is what life is like before the M9 right? ...I don't want to pay over Leica's already high MSRP for used lenses.
Well, the current Summilux 35 was introduced after the M9, so there's no pricing to track from the M8 or film M era.

As to paying whatever one will/should/must for Leica lenses, if you don't want to, then.....don't.
 

thrice

Active member
I almost bought a mint 50/1.4 asph for $1200 when I was shooting my M6. I recently bought one new...

We will see a resurgence in price gouging and general Leica madness if the M10 tickles the fancy of those who don't feel the M9 is 'quite there' enough for them.
 

Brian S

New member
When you can buy a Rigid Summicron for $100, collapsible for $70, Canon 50/1.5 for $70, Nikkor 5cm F1.4 for $95, Collapsible Elmar 9cm F4 for $100, E48 90/2 Summicron for $200- prices will be back to what they were a few years ago. And a Leica IIIf with coated Elmar 5cm F3.5 for .... $50 at a camera shop.

With the M9 monochrome... prices for Uncoated lenses will shoot through the roof.
 

glenerrolrd

Workshop Member
Leica is limited in its ability to increase lens production . They have a number of production bottlenecks that constrain in particular the summilux lenses . Consider that (1) Leica product in August is typically reduced due to a summer shut down (2) Photokina will bring new lenses and demand from the more ardent Leica Fan Boys (me) and (3) the conversion to the new plant will drain resources and curtail production sometime in 2013.

With that said there is some evidence that supports glass supplier issues that may have been resolved (blanks for summilux,noctilux lenses) .

So just looking at the supply side it doesn t speak well for increased availability .

From a demand standpoint ..how many new Leica M users are joining the market ? When the M10 comes we should see a burst in availability of M9 bodies ...but not the lenses as most will be due to upgrades where the owner keeps his Leica M glass.

My forecast would be for another major lens availability short fall between now and this time next year. Maybe not like we saw earlier this year but lenses will be in short supply.
 

algrove

Well-known member
Roger makes very good points about the summer vacation shutdown/slowdown, etc.

Speaking to lenses in stock I was at The Pro Shop in WPB, FL last Friday and I saw they had many M lenses in stock incuding the 24/1.4.
 

fotografz

Well-known member
I agree with Roger.

besides, one lens sale isn't necessarily a trend.

BTW, the slower lenses have never been in short supply because they never sold well like the faster ASPH lenses.

IMO, impatience is the main driver for over pricing. Some will pay more just to get a short supply M lens now.

I sold off my 0.95 Nocti, made money on it after two years use, then waited for a new 50 Lux ASPH which I now use.

I also think Leica's new luxury retail strategy, which includes exclusive retail outlets and boutiques, will suck up more product availability from the traditional dealer network. I would not expect the pricing structure to become sane in the coming years ... they are targeting buyers who don't care about price when it comes to status and prestige. Thus increased prices will be the more likely scenario ... the 50/2 ASPH is the first hint of whopper prices for future products. A $10,000 M10 would not surprise me ... and I also think some traditional M users may not opt to keep paying "prestige prices", so the notion that the market will be flooded with M9s may happen for a short time, then level off and stabilize.

For that reason, I've tightened down my M9P system to something I can live with for a long time, and can make more sane decisions based on actual need as opposed to "Gotta Have It At Any Price" scenarios.

-Marc
 

dude163

Active member
When you can buy a Rigid Summicron for $100, collapsible for $70, Canon 50/1.5 for $70, Nikkor 5cm F1.4 for $95, Collapsible Elmar 9cm F4 for $100, E48 90/2 Summicron for $200- prices will be back to what they were a few years ago. And a Leica IIIf with coated Elmar 5cm F3.5 for .... $50 at a camera shop.

With the M9 monochrome... prices for Uncoated lenses will shoot through the roof.

Sniff :(


I got into photography too late
 
V

Vivek

Guest
I had always been at it (as a buyer) when there is a "bubble".

Bought my R and M gear (no digital bodies) at the height of the "bubble".

I do not think the prices will fall. If you take a look at the current primes from Zeiss, Olympus and the like they are actually rising.

About the prediction above about uncoated lenses. I do not think they will do well on the MM. Even the latest with the greatest coatings will give fairly low contrast images on the MM. So, the uncoated ones would likely fare terribly.
 

rayyan

Well-known member
Bubbles, whether of tulips, Leica, real estate, gold etc., never really burst. They just move on to another place, another time and another sucker. Bubbles just mutate. Voracious, devouring..feeding on our vanities, our weaknesses.

But we know we are neither vain nor weak; don't we?
 

glenerrolrd

Workshop Member
A new M will create a temporary peaking of demand . Used M9 s will increase as LFB trade up to the M10 . Leica makes about 1500 M bodies a month ...since a high percentage of these will go to existing owners ..expect that the used M9 will go increasingly to those without lenses . of course some serious $$$ will be taken out of circulation and this dampens demand for lenses . Net result will be similar but not as extreme as the M9 introduction.

The new plant strategy went with all new equipment ....this is a big deal and why Leica could t increase capacity earlier for lens grinding . You rarely add new equipment to an old facility just to move it in a year . So lens production in Solms has pretty much peaked until late 2013.
 

monza

Active member
China's economy is weakening, which was driving a lot of the Leica lens bubble last year. Leica boosted prices in January.

Availability isn't really any better than it was before, it's the demand that is less.

These are the primary factors with regards to new/recent Leica glass pricing. Some vintage glass continues to rise.
 

monza

Active member
BTW the M9M's existence tells me than the M9 demand was trending substantially downward. The M9M release is a brilliant move: market a three year old camera with little incremental R&D to many people who already own essentially the same camera. :)
 

jonoslack

Active member
BTW the M9M's existence tells me than the M9 demand was trending substantially downward. The M9M release is a brilliant move: market a three year old camera with little incremental R&D to many people who already own essentially the same camera. :)
I quite agree - although, there was a fair amount of R&D I think, but even so, a great move, much better than another cosmetic upgrade.

As for the lenses - I think it's just a dip in demand which goes with declining m9 sales at the end of it's life cycle - not surprising, and as long as the M10 is a decent camera things are likely to turn right around.
 

rayyan

Well-known member
That's quite philosophical and poetic, but not pragmatic. Ask any owner of real estate in Phoenix or Las Vegas. Or ask anyone who owned shares in a US high tech company in 2001. Bubbles do burst, and some don't "move on" or "mutate". At least not in our lifetimes.

The Leica lull is simply a reduction in (current) demand, reflected in a reduction in the price for used goods. Demand will increase as soon as perceived wealth increases. Supply and demand is a proven principle upon which you can rely.

BTW, we're all vain and weak. ;)

Joe
Unfortunate for those living inthe region/s you mention. Real estate prices in other regions of the world were on the rise. As to the high tech companies, when they were falling others were climbing.

Look at the price of gold then. It is down now from its highs, but way above 2001.

Bubbles might burst in one region, only to rise in another. During this process, many individuals could/have suffered. Unfortunate, but not for the bubbles, but
For those that get caught up in the frenzy.

Even as I write, there are various price bubbles in different regions of the world.
Just look where the designer outlets are rushing too. If not in region x, then in y.

One does not realize that one is in a bubble..that is the beauty or sadness of the whole thing.
 

MSUSpartan

New member
Also consider price elasticity. Most Leica shooters... errr collectors... nowadays tend to be wealthy, and like everyone else, overvalue their own possessions. The difference that sets them apart from other brand loyalists is that they can afford to hold on to an item that decreased in value, determined that it is worth over what the demand calls for.

A FLE is worth USD 4,750 now, but I bet you a lot of people are thinking that it is worth USD 5,500 or more still.
 
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