M8: The Race for the Bottom Begins!

[nei1]

If M8"s do drop in price significantly surely this obvious depreciation will hit all future leica sales including the M9;one of the few remaining leica strengths has been lts lack of depreciation,your wealthy amateur will find it harder to justify the purchase to their wide eyed friends.

 

[fotografz]

This all sounds like wishful thinking to me. I'd use my M8 as a paper weight before selling it for $1,500. or even $1,800. It's still one heck of an image maker. Plus, I like the 1/8000th shutter option. The IR idea sounds good also ... IR with M glass for $1,500. ... why not?

Just like with any of these digital cameras, the actual incremental gain rarely is in keeping with the price differential. Will a M9 be 5 or 6 times as good as a used M8? I think we will all be surprised.

-Marc

 

[scho]

Carl, did your M8 have any upgrades or leftover warranty or other items?

Robert, Yes, so I guess if you deduct the approx. value of the upgrades (shutter & vulcanite) and remaining warranty that would leave you with a number more in line with your estimates.

Regards,
Carl

 

[Guy Mancuso]

M8 for 1500 okay I'm buying. LOL

 

[robmac]

Simple supply and demand - regardless of how good the images are or who made it. A lot fo folks are going to need/want to sell their M8_ to raise funds/justify a 9 - especially once GAS hits full tilt as the inevitable "...it's an extension of my creative karma...", etc 'reviews' come in and they can see the beast in the flesh.

This is Leica's (Nikon) D3 'Moment'. A dramatic, step-wise correction, then bottoming, of after-market pricing within the line where the top of the (8.0) curve is the current ASKING price of US$2300 +/-. One unknown is what, if any, remaining stock Solms has and what they will do with it. The price difference of an 8u or 8.2 vs an 8.0 will also be easier to justify to an existing M user looking for a 2nd body vs. a 1st time digital M-buyer - there the seller will have to work a bit harder to justify the difference.

Like the man says, "be careful what you wish for". People bugged Solms since day 1 for an M8 in FF and it's paid off - but with the bubbly, shaking wallets and party favors comes the inevitable downside...

 

[John Black]

Assuming the M9 is real and the specs are accurate, the a M9 is the same pixel pitch as the M8. And since it's a Kodak CCD (presumably), then the DR and noise will be about the same. There might be some evolutionary improvements, but I'm not expecting any profound improvements. I expect a M9 image cropped down to the M8 size to look about identical at the pixel level. If the M9's performance is about that of the M8, then I think there will be a strong market for used M8's because people we'll see them as a worthy $2500 alternative to the $7000(?) M9. I do think M8.2 owners are going to see harsh depreciation.

 

[Mark Gowin]

The M9 will surely be an excellent camera and a welcome addition. However, the M8 is no slouch and it produces images/prints that defy its 10 mpix cropped sensor resolution. I think that most current M8 owners wanting to upgrade to the M9 will only sell their M8s if they can get enough money out of them - I don't think they will give them away for ridiculous low prices. I also expect the used M8 prices to be relative to the price of the M9 such that a high priced M9 will help hold value for the M8. If the M9 price comes in around the current M8.2 price, then I think M8 prices will tumble below $2k. If the M9 comes in at $7k or $8, then I think M8 prices will likely stay above $2k for a few months.

Of course this is just me thinking out loud and contemplating whether to sell my M8 for an M9 or keep it for use with longer focal lengths and as backup. It will all depend on the M9 price and its affect on the used market. Also, I expect used lens prices to go up due to demand because I think there have been a good number of people waiting for the M9 (full frame, no IR filters). Or who knows, sell the M system and get an S2 along with an X1.

I am shocked, it now appears that, as of 9/9, Leica will have three cameras I want. That didn't seem possible just a couple months ago. Bravo Leica. Its too bad I don't have enough cash for all three.

Mark

 

[fotografz]

Simple supply and demand - regardless of how good the images are or who made it. A lot fo folks are going to need/want to sell their M8_ to raise funds/justify a 9 - especially once the inevitable "...it's an extension of my creative karma...", etc 'reviews' come in and they can see the beast in the flesh.

This is Leica's (Nikon) D3 'Moment'. A dramatic, step-wise correction, then bottoming, of after-market pricing within the line where the top of the (8.0) curve is the current ASKING price of US$2300 +/-.

Like the man says, "be careful what you wish for". People bugged Solms since day 1 for an M8 in FF and it's paid off - but with the bubbly, shaking wallets and party favors comes the inevitable downside...

Well, since Leica Land is a small universe filled with gabby old lady types, and this kind of post reaches the far corners of the Galaxy, no one will now buy a M8 for over $2,000. so it'll be a stalemate. :ROTFL: Anyone that can cough up $8,000. or more for a M9 probably isn't rummaging around for a spare $1,500. ... which is less than a M7 goes for.

Oh, and just how many M8 are there out there to "flood the market ? The Nikon analogy seems a bit off

 

[robmac]

 

[fotografz]

No sweat off my rump ... I need two M digital cameras to shoot weddings with and I sure am not coughing up $16,000. to do it. A M9 and a back-up M8 for use with the 24 Lux since it doesn't need an aux finder to use it like the M9 will, plus the 1/8000th shutter may be handy for the 50 Lux.

Sorry, still think the Nikon analogy is off base. The D3 wasn't 5 or 6X the price of a used D2x, and there are a ton more Nikon DSLRs compared to Leica Ms.

I also think that the current M8 pricing IS already an effect of the months of M9 rumors.

But, hey, you are probably right ... some lemmings will run off the cliff no matter what.

 

[KurtKamka]

It might dip a bit to start but I too think the D3 analogy is a bit of a stretch also. I think it'll bounce back. There aren't that many M8s floating around. Also, those that might have wanted to try rangefinder shooting will probably find the entry point for used M8s appealing. The funny thing about cold clear facts, economic theories, price elasticity, etc. is that they tend to discount human emotion ... and there is a lot of emotion in Leica products and rangefinder shooting ... especially when those 10 megapixels produce as nice of files as they do.

 

[cmb_]

. . . and not EVERYONE will be selling to fund their M9. Some will buy an M9 as a second camera. Some who have 2 M8's might sell/trade-in one and pick up an M9. And their are those who have an "original" M8 - no upgrades - in mint condition with all the original packing etc., etc., who will sit on them thinking that some day this will fund an S2!!!

 

[barjohn]

Such baloney. The first electronic watch was the Acutron by Bulova. Show me where the price of a mint condition Acutron has kept pace with a mint Patek Phillip from the same time period. There is a difference between a hand made mechanical device requiring skilled craftsmanship and a digital electronic device assembled by mostly robotics. While the M8 is a little of each, its reputation in both the mechanical and electronics side have not been stellar. Given how high Leica's repair prices are one has to think about what a repair might cost ( a defective sensor, a broken shutter, etc.) and mentally add that to the price paid while hoping to never have to pay it. Since Leica doesn't allow a transfer of warranty and many of these cameras will be out of warranty anyway you have to mentally add the possibility of a $1,000 outlay for repairs. Thus, mentally, a $2,000 camera is really a $3,000 but you hope to never have to pay the other $1,000.

 

[Mango]

The change in price of pre-owned uncoded lenses is another thing worth contemplating, 21mm 24mm 50mm in particular, which weren't so popular with the M8 series. Does the M8 have framelines for the 135mm focal length?

 

[vikasmg]

Can't afford an M9 or M8.2. Am getting an M8 instead. Warts and all.

I've been happily using an an M8 and once they fixed the initial problem (for free) I have noticed no warts at all . Even if I get the M9, I'd hate to give up the M8.

 

[vikasmg]

Does the M8 have framelines for the 135mm focal length?

Yes, 35 and 135 / 28 and 90 / 50 and 75

 

[Mango]

Thanks vikasmg for the frameline information.

I think the attraction, and therefore price for pre-owned Noctiluxes, 75mm Summiluxes, and 90mm lenses will also increase. This is great news for the whole Leica lineup, not just the bodies, but the lenses as well.

I like the 24mm framelines on the M8.

 

[fotografz]

The change in price of pre-owned uncoded lenses is another thing worth contemplating, 21mm 24mm 50mm in particular, which weren't so popular with the M8 series. Does the M8 have framelines for the 135mm focal length?

This assumes that the M9 will work properly with uncoded lenses.

I assume differently. I think that firmware is how Leica solved the FF & IR issues, and the M9 needs to know exactly which lens is on the camera.

Think about it ... either they have a revolutionary sensor design no one else has that eliminates IR and vignetting with lenses so close to the FF sensor, or they don't. If not, then how else can IR and vignetting be dealt with?

Whether the M9 will allow non-coded lenses to be programed in like Nikon does remains to be seen ... I personally doubt it since it would be a ferocious undertaking to map all the possible combinations.

If I am correct on this, then the M8s will be the camera for heritage lenses and some of the 3rd party offerings (Zeiss/Voight/Canon).

I guess we'll find out on Weds. :salute:

 

[fotografz]

Such baloney. The first electronic watch was the Acutron by Bulova. Show me where the price of a mint condition Acutron has kept pace with a mint Patek Phillip from the same time period. There is a difference between a hand made mechanical device requiring skilled craftsmanship and a digital electronic device assembled by mostly robotics. While the M8 is a little of each, its reputation in both the mechanical and electronics side have not been stellar. Given how high Leica's repair prices are one has to think about what a repair might cost ( a defective sensor, a broken shutter, etc.) and mentally add that to the price paid while hoping to never have to pay it. Since Leica doesn't allow a transfer of warranty and many of these cameras will be out of warranty anyway you have to mentally add the possibility of a $1,000 outlay for repairs. Thus, mentally, a $2,000 camera is really a $3,000 but you hope to never have to pay the other $1,000.

Agreed, (except for the "Baloney" part), but there is a point of diminishing returns at work here. Yes, it is easily conceivable that a used M8 will initially go to $2,000. Maybe even a bit lower, but at some point those that want a Leica digital rangefinder have a choice ... $8,000. or a M8. I know a LOT of Leica users that simply won't or can't hack a $8,000. Digital M. (I think those that hope the M9 will be $6,500. are smoking something, and aren't watching Leica's recent, even more premium pricing strategy).

IMO, the M8s have stabilized in terms of reliability. Early ones have all been repaired if needed, and it seems to have calmed down. I had a horrible time at first, but now the cameras have been very reliable (knock on wood).

BTW, a Leica M7 isn't a Patek Phillip, nor is it a collectors item. It's a film camera that mostly depends on electronics whether built by robots or shaky human hands

 

[Lars]

My guess is that price on mint-ish M8 will stabilize around $1500. After all, it's a Leica and it takes Leica lenses, which means the market is not as price sensitive as would have been the case with a Japanese brand. At $1500 an M8 would be a nice complement to an existing collection of M lenses.

At the same time, M8 will go down in history as one of Leica's lemons - its first real attempt at a digital system (ignoring the S1 here). My guess is the M9 will be such a good camera that it will put the M8 completely to shame. After all, all those great M8 shots are made by M glass rather than the camera, and M9 will be a true eye-opener for M8 owners.