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M8: The Race for the Bottom Begins!

Once the Leica M9 is available, what's the most you'd pay for a like-new M8 or M8.2?

  • 90% of the M9 price

    Votes: 1 1.3%
  • 75% of the M9 price

    Votes: 3 3.9%
  • 50% of the M9 price

    Votes: 17 22.1%
  • 30% of the M9 price

    Votes: 7 9.1%
  • Nothing over $2000

    Votes: 32 41.6%
  • Nothing over $1000

    Votes: 10 13.0%
  • Wouldn't take it if you gave it to me

    Votes: 7 9.1%

  • Total voters
    77
R

Ranger 9

Guest
Assuming that the Leica M9 lives up to its leaks, I'm guessing that approximately 100% of current M8 owners would rather have an M9 instead. Some might consider keeping the M8 as a backup, but I suspect that sooner or later most will ditch it.

Meanwhile, the improvements on the M9 will bring the M8's shortcomings into even sharper relief (low pixel count by today's standards, mediocre high-ISO performance, the need for those dratted IR filters) so would-be buyers of used M8s likely will decide to hold out until they can afford an M9.

Lots of potential sellers / few potential buyers = price crash, right?

So, this poll: How low would the price of a like-new M8 have to drop relative to the M9 before you'd consider buying one?
 
D

Daveco

Guest
Although I would love to have an M9 instead of my M8, making the change is a low priority, unless the price of the M9 is lower than I've seen predicted. I'll probably hang onto my M8 until there is an M10, and then I'll pick up a used M9.
 

TRSmith

Subscriber Member
I'm fairly confident that I will probably keep my M8 until the end of (my) time. Which is not to say that I won't start saving for an M9. And for sure on 9/9/09 (or whatever the actual date happens to be) my M8 will still be better than me.
 

JimCollum

Member
will keep the M8 as long as it works (besides.. it's *way* too beat up to ever sell). we'll see how the price turns out on the M9
 

Tim

Active member
I'm curious, are there enough interested used M8 buyers to soak up all those discarded M8s?

When the M8 came out there was a brief glut of M7s. But they stabilized in price. The difference this time is we are talking used digital!
 

cmb_

Subscriber & Workshop Member
I was thinking the same thing - what a nice IR camera the M8 would make. Hell, I've almost got myself convinced to buy my own M8 for that purpose!
 

GrahamWelland

Subscriber & Workshop Member
I think that the poll is somewhat spurious because the value of an M8.2 is almost certainly higher than an M8 or M8u.

If the M9 is at the $7k+ level, then there's plenty of scope for M8.2 about $3500+ and no reason why M8's should be less than $2-2500 IMHO.
 
R

Ranger 9

Guest
I think that the poll is somewhat spurious because the value of an M8.2 is almost certainly higher than an M8 or M8u.

If the M9 is at the $7k+ level, then there's plenty of scope for M8.2 about $3500+ and no reason why M8's should be less than $2-2500 IMHO.
True, but I would think that the spread between the M9 and either model will be larger than the spread between the two models -- so the survey still should have some validity (although the two-model issue makes it a bit "noisier.")

Conveniences aside, the fundamental photographic issues with the M8 -- the non-traditional sensor size, and the need for lens IR filters -- were not resolved by the M8.2, but will (presumably) be resolved by the M9. Over time that's going to tend to lump the two 8 models together, although presumably the 8.2 will be considered "less undesirable" of the two.

Eventually it may turn into the same sort of distinction as two-stroke vs. one-stroke M3s: a matter for debate among aficionados but of little concern to anyone else.

That brings up another question that interests me sociologically: Will M8s and M8.2s become "collectible"? Sometimes I wonder if any digital camera will ever become "collectible" in the same sense as an early Leica, Contax or Nikon...
 

Chris C

Member
Curious - Has the US dollar become the official currency of this forum? Am I under a misapprehension that we are using the World Wide Web?

For the record - "I have not, nor am I likely ever to; make a purchase with US dollars".

............. Chris
 

nostatic

New member
At the risk of global currency wars, my local dealer is guessing a price north of $10K USD for the M9. In which case I think the M8.x prices aren't going to go totally in the tank...
 
R

Ranger 9

Guest
Poll update

So, far, the results of the admittedly small sample seem to be gravitating nicely toward two basins of attraction: Those who would contemplate the M8.x as a half-price M9 alternative, and those who would pay a maximum of $2000 for this tool.

[Incidentally, in response to a previous note, "$" is the abbreviation for "$lp%n*µx", the official currency of the Andromeda galaxy, which coincidentally happens to equate roughly 1:1 to the US dollar because of unexplained subspace resonances in the intergalactic financial system. Your mileage, or parsecage, may vary. Note that the use of the Illudium Q36 Space Modulator for currency manipulation is forbidden by intergalactic treaty.]

The fact that M9 price guesses are floating between AG$6,000 and AG$10,000 means it's hard to tell how far apart these two basins might be, but the fact that there are definite spikes at these two points interests me.

This may wind up being an interesting echo of the experience of the Epson R-D 1, which was a slow seller at its original $2,999 price, but wound up enjoying a certain amount of demand as a $1,999 refurb.
 

monza

Active member
This is a matter of supply/demand. Soon, there will be a lot of used/no warranty M8s on the market, due to people buying M9s and trying to get what they can out of their M8s.

Used M8s have been going for roughly $2300-$2500 lately, speaking of nice condition units with boxes, extra batteries, etc. I would expect this to drop to the $1800 range, maybe as low as $1500 within a few weeks.
 
T

TimF

Guest
At the risk of global currency wars, my local dealer is guessing a price north of $10K USD for the M9. In which case I think the M8.x prices aren't going to go totally in the tank...
If the UK price I've heard is correct, there'd have to be a major shift in the exchange rate for that to be true. :bugeyes:
 

scho

Well-known member
This is a matter of supply/demand. Soon, there will be a lot of used/no warranty M8s on the market, due to people buying M9s and trying to get what they can out of their M8s.

Used M8s have been going for roughly $2300-$2500 lately, speaking of nice condition units with boxes, extra batteries, etc. I would expect this to drop to the $1800 range, maybe as low as $1500 within a few weeks.
My M8 sold for $3497 about two months ago, so that is a pretty steep drop in price.
 

robmac

Well-known member
This is a matter of supply/demand. Soon, there will be a lot of used/no warranty M8s on the market, due to people buying M9s and trying to get what they can out of their M8s.

Used M8s have been going for roughly $2300-$2500 lately, speaking of nice condition units with boxes, extra batteries, etc. I would expect this to drop to the $1800 range, maybe as low as $1500 within a few weeks.
+1

Welcome to the digital depreciation curve. Assuming they don't do anything stupid (within the Leica context) on price and the 'reviews' are good, you'll be seeing clean M8s at $1800 or modestly less pretty quickly. For at least the initial "I wanna" bubble and then for the sequel after the first in-depth reviews, you're going to see a rare buyer's market in M8_s and M glass (especially for the UWAs) as folks raid their cupboards for M9 money. I suspect you'll see some so-called collectibles hit the market as well.

Good time to go shopping. Not my ball of wax, but pickup some nice-priced glass you've been lusting, a good-rep/clean M8_ that's depreciated to hell and back, shoot that for awhile until you're certain Leica got the M9's recipe right.

Any dealer quoting US$10K for the M9 is likely just doing a guesstimate (or looking to do a Harley Davidson pricing model (e.g. > list in seller's market)). On the S2 Leica took something off the top of the straight UK/EU -> US rate to allow for the importance of the US market to their sales volume and the accommodate the usual EU/UK vs NA price premium. I'd guess around $7000ish. Not $10K, but certainly the better part of it.

Let the feeding frenzy (on both sides) begin.
 
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