New Phase Camera Body, Back and Programs in the Works...

[thomas]

Outside of the 80mp+ sensor with even better DR, I am hoping for:

- some way to 100% check focus on the back, even if its just a central spot area. i.e. on screen live view, even briefly.
- which requires a better screen

to some degree this is already available on a Leaf back. My feeling is ... if you are used to the LCD on the Leaf... you can actually use it to check focus. Not entirely sure about it, though... would require to actually work with a Leaf for some time.
Working with a tech camera I actually tend to prefer a Leaf back as it provides some very nice features on the LCD... like movable grid lines (comes in hand when shooting architecture or so) and you can log custom data, for instance lens data, that are available in the metadata of the RAW files afterwards.
As to tethering in the field I prefer to power the back from the internal battery of the back (it's easier to carry some more batteries for the back than an external power device for the laptop). This is not possible on the Leaf as you have to detach the battery to plug the FW cable. But this is minor to me personally as I actually very rarely tether in the field.

 

[dfarkas]

I do hope that it will represent a completely clean break from the existing AFD based platform. A completely new design like the Leica S2 is. The S2 is reputed to have cost $25m in development costs.

The S2 development cost 27m EUR (about $40m). Each lens cost somewhere in the neighborhood of 1-3m each. Leica has about 30 people working on the S system right now. Making a brand new camera system isn't cheap or easy.

Curious to see what Phase comes up with (and when). Usually Photokina is the place to showcase new products. Perhaps they might show something at PhotoPlus in a few weeks.

David

 

[narikin]

to some degree this is already available on a Leaf back. My feeling is ... if you are used to the LCD on the Leaf... you can actually use it to check focus. Not entirely sure about it, though... would require to actually work with a Leaf for some time..

Yes, and 'to some degree' its on the Phase backs too - you can zoom in 3steps to look at a part of the images - but the screen/ resolution is too poor for it to be usable in the real world.

Compared to the Canon live view focus zoom on their screen, its all a very bad joke.

 

[David K]

The S2 development cost 27m EUR (about $40m). Each lens cost somewhere in the neighborhood of 1-3m each. Leica has about 30 people working on the S system right now. Making a brand new camera system isn't cheap or easy.

Curious to see what Phase comes up with (and when). Usually Photokina is the place to showcase new products. Perhaps they might show something at PhotoPlus in a few weeks.

David

Development costs of this magnitude are staggering. Even assuming a $10k profit margin per unit at the manufacturer's level (a number I pulled out of the air) it would take 4,000 units to break even. I've got no idea what their worldwide sales per year might be but I think it's safe to say it will take quite a number of years to sell that many units.

 

[David Klepacki]

Development costs of this magnitude are staggering. Even assuming a $10k profit margin per unit at the manufacturer's level (a number I pulled out of the air) it would take 4,000 units to break even. I've got no idea what their worldwide sales per year might be but I think it's safe to say it will take quite a number of years to sell that many units.

Interesting comment ... what do you think Leica would do if they are unable to sell enough units to make a profit? Do you see the S2 following the same path as the Afi/Hy6?

 

[KurtKamka]

Here's my bit of speculation on the development cost of the S2 ... it's very simple, Leica's committed to the S platform for the long haul. They have a deep pockets owner who has a longer window for earning back his investment. It's a bit of gamble, but if the platform remains viable for 5-10 years, the company probably doesn't need the same type of investment to be placed into an S3 or S4 which won't need to be redesigned from the ground up for each iteration. The turn-around on profit for lenses should be much quicker as their design update window will certainly be much longer than that for the camera.

 

[David K]

Interesting comment ... what do you think Leica would do if they are unable to sell enough units to make a profit? Do you see the S2 following the same path as the Afi/Hy6?

As a current Hy6 owner (and potential S2 buyer) I've asked myself that question many times. I can only assume that decisions at Leica will be based on sound business fundamentals and not emotion. I agree with Kurt's assessment that Leica has made this investment with a long term viewpoint. I do not think they will abandon this platform in the short term... even if sales do not meet their original expectations (and I have no idea what they are or whether that's happening). Also, it seems to me that Jenoptic/Sinar is a very different company than Leica. The Hy6 was never more than a mosquito on an elephant's *** to that company whereas the S2 is clearly one of Leica's flagship products. These are just my thoughts... I'm sure there are others much better qualified to answer this question.

 

[Guy Mancuso]

Well I think they are committed to the S system simply because they jumped into a market segment that has little competition in the S style. But than again in the back of ones mind they killed the R because they did not want to go against the N/C/S of the world. What happens if the Pentax takes off , something radical comes and changes the game. They already established the death of the R if the game changes for the S what will they do. More than anything they leave us guessing after the R. You all know there are a lot of R users very unhappy out there. Time will tell obviously and they could flourish here in this segment also. Personally to me it's not ready until 5 more lenses are out on the streets but that is me. Horses for courses but Im also not unhappy with my kit or Hassys either . Only time will tell. Like to see a 50+mpx 5.2 sensor next at a much lower entry fee.

 

[David K]

Good points Guy... especially the one about Pentax. If they can deliver the goods at the price point they've targeted then watch out below. I've recently read that sales of luxury goods are booming once again. Apparently the very high end of the market, e.g. super-yachts, etc., is stronger than it's been in a long while. My opinion is that the Leica S2 will appeal to that marketplace.

 

[Arjuna]

All I got was unique as a answer.

Given the purchase of Leaf, would a version II of an AFI/HY6 save a lot on R&D and qualify as unique?

 

[David Klepacki]

They already established the death of the R if the game changes for the S what will they do. More than anything they leave us guessing after the R. You all know there are a lot of R users very unhappy out there.

Guy, Good point. Indeed, there is historical precedence set by Leica with regard to their R system, and so there is no reason not to think that someday its S users will face the same situation.

 

[ptomsu]

Guy, Good point. Indeed, there is historical precedence set by Leica with regard to their R system, and so there is no reason not to think that someday its S users will face the same situation.

I unfortunately have to agree to that. I was burned myself heavily with my DMR and a complete set of R glass. And may I say I would still be using these lenses if Leica had brought any reasonable R DSLR solution after the DMR. This was actually what I had expected like many others - and not a completely new system.

WRT to the S system - I meanwhile really love it and would also love to buy in, but something in my brain keeps saying "wait and see some more time ...." because of the bad treatment I got in my DMR days.

On the other hand I see also a MFD system as something temporary. The S system - as its current status - it is pretty ok for me. And with 1 or 2 more lenses in the lineup it will be even more appropriate for my needs. I actually think that Leica will at least bring a S3 - maybe PK 2012 or maybe 2013. And so this system would live at least the next 5-6 years for me. Which already is much longer than any other system I owned.

Well, it is all relative of course And I understand that using the S system as a pro one might think different and opt for longer time. But end of the day, even in this situation, if any MFD system should have payed back itself by far in the timeframe of 3-5 years, otherwise I would consider this as a not so optimal business plan.

All speculations.

 

[xinchenc]

New Phase Camera Body?

BUT the ultimate camera body is there: Hy6/AFi!

 

[ptomsu]

New Phase Camera Body?

BUT the ultimate camera body is there: Hy6/AFi!

While I also like the Hy6/AFi I would not call it the ultimate camera body. For many users it will be too big, bulky and heavy - simply that. Taking one with 2 or 3 Schneider lenses on one of my trips say to New Zealand or Argentinia or other destinations would give me some headache carrying and caring for this system. Even my H3D39 with 2 lenses is getting too bulky almost and this is also one of the main reasons I would really love to shoot on these assignments with the S system.

So I agree, the Hy6 is perfect for studio work or where you have your assistent with you to help setup and carry, but not for traveling far away destinations.

 

[Bob]

I need to post a casting call for a full time assistant/sherpa/model.
What a great idea LOL
-bob

 

[ptomsu]

I need to post a casting call for a full time assistant/sherpa/model.
What a great idea LOL
-bob

If the long leg model could be assistant same time then I would be happy as well

 

[Bob]

If the long leg model could be assistant same time then I would be happy as well

Wanted:
Female Model Muse Assistant Sherpa. 5 foot 9 inches minimum height.
Must comfortable posing nude.
Ability to do a good job at makeup and hair will influence the selection.
Ability to predict when a new cup of coffee is needed is a desirable trait.
Stamina, the ability to tolerate hot and cold and a grumpy boss all are valued characteristics.
Must own a vehicle and extensive wardrobe and tolerate irregular pay.
Please send picture of vehicle.

am I asking for too much? You betcha!
-bob

 

[thomas]

Guy, Good point. Indeed, there is historical precedence set by Leica with regard to their R system, and so there is no reason not to think that someday its S users will face the same situation.

especially if you consider the lenses are designed for that specific sensor size.

 

[6x7]

I am reading and reading and I don't read anything about what I would like to see released from a MF manufacturer. Does anyone remember the Mamiya ZD ? It was released in 2005/2006 as far as I know and for me it still is what I would love to have. A MF sensor in a SLR housing. This was possible and was built 5-6 years ago… !!!
It was obsolete at the time it came out because it was to slow it had an unusable display and anything above ISO 100 was let's say not that good. So no need to buy one in addition to your existing back..
BUT, even then it could have been updated with a P30/P45 sensor and faster electronics. It had removable AA and IR filters. AND, HEY.. it had that fancy ONE battery solution !!! Carrying it around with the dedicated lenses was/is in fact a lighter and smaller package as a 5DII with the L glass counterparts. Do I need to say more ?

And now, it's almost 2011. Where do we stand ? Well… we all do know.. Let's see what is to be released in the next time an how it will be sold as a "Revolution".

 

[Geoff]

The S2 development cost 27m EUR (about $40m). Each lens cost somewhere in the neighborhood of 1-3m each. Leica has about 30 people working on the S system right now. Making a brand new camera system isn't cheap or easy.

David

Just a thought:

if one assumes $50 mil for development of whole system, with lenses, perhaps....

- manuf costs for the camera and a lens at about $5k (min, assume development work solved all initial prototype issues, its just straight production now)
- soft costs per camera (distribution, adverts, admin) @ $5k per camera

You'd have to sell.... 5,000 units to break even.

This doesn't include anything for extra lens sales, but maybe those profits would go into continuing R&D.

Any thoughts?