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Thread: A prediction

  1. #1
    nei1
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    A prediction

    Within 5 years the most respected of professionals will be using film again because truth willout

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    Re: A prediction

    So, does this suggest you are going "long" on scanner companies?

    LJ

  3. #3
    nei1
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    Re: A prediction

    define ""long""

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    Re: A prediction

    I'm guessing that you (Neil) are also predicting improved availability of quality processing, better scanning solutions, and most of all, more patient art directors and clients.

    That would be wonderful. Especially the patient people part.

    Cheers.

  5. #5
    nei1
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    Re: A prediction

    no scanning

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    Re: A prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by nei1 View Post
    define ""long""
    Sorry, it is a stock broker/trader terminology for buying the stocks and holding them for hopefully later appreciation. Going "short" means selling or dumping them. Weak attempt at humor in this perilous economic climate

    LJ

  7. #7
    nei1
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    Re: A prediction

    go "short" on digital back stocks.

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    Re: A prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by nei1 View Post
    no scanning
    Well, that is going to become a bit more of a problem, as there are fewer and fewer good labs for processing and custom printing. And, at some point, the image will most likely have to be converted to digital in some way in order to use commercially for publications, etc. So a very high quality print will need to be made, followed by an equally high quality scan of that retouched print.

    None of this may apply to those not shooting for anything other than fine art printing, except good processing and custom printing.

    LJ

  9. #9
    nei1
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    Re: A prediction

    very soon(2years)everyone will have your digital backs equivalent quality in a small point and shoot camera.It will have auto capability to produce every kind of "professional"image,even having a "bresson" button which will only trigger the shutter when that composition and moment arrive.Theres only one direction to go>>>>analogue

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    Senior Member yaya's Avatar
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    Re: A prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by nei1 View Post
    very soon(2years)everyone will have your digital backs equivalent quality in a small point and shoot camera.It will have auto capability to produce every kind of "professional"image,even having a "bresson" button which will only trigger the shutter when that composition and moment arrive.Theres only one direction to go>>>>analogue
    If that's true then most professionals will be shooting on cheap P&S, fair enough...but how does film fall into this equation?

    Curious minds bla bla...
    Yair Shahar | Product Manager | Phase One | Mamiya Leaf
    e: [email protected] | m: +44(0)77 8992 8199 | yaya's blog

  11. #11
    jmvdigital
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    Re: A prediction

    I get what he's saying. A pro always wants differentiation; the ability to do something in some way that no else (or very few) can. That's part of what being a pro is. So if everyone can achieve the same quality image with digital, regardless of price or technical ability, than the only route is to reverse course and let the amatuers have their 98mp P&S while the "real" photographers go back to analogue film.

    However, 35mm shooters have been "equal" in this regard for a long time. It's only recently that the quality of 35mm has started to break it's own box and head into MF territory. It has never meant that just because a 35mm shooter didn't have unique equipment it made him less of a pro. Thousands of iconic "professional" images have been taken on the same film that a 10 year old boy can buy at the local drugstore.

  12. #12
    jmvdigital
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    Re: A prediction

    I think sometimes people forget that it's not the camera, it's the person behind it.

  13. #13
    Administrator, Instructor Guy Mancuso's Avatar
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    Re: A prediction

    Well yes and no , there will always be the bottom end feeders out there . Now with there 5DII it will become increasingly more of them. Have camera i can shoot for dirt cheap mentality. Believe me it is a issue sometimes but as Justin said it is the person behind the box that counts. Now that person has to elevate his level more though to deal with some of this price is fist mentality. This is becoming more a issue where it is the worst area too, like weddings. I have a REAL issue with unexperienced people doing weddings. I won't get on my soapbox about this but i am not very pleasant on wedding shooters taking on such risk without knowledge. I will leave it at that but also want to point out for the folks that are in the hiring of shooters most still want top end quality first and hopefully that won't change to drastically but if i HAD to go back to film than i would really have to hang up my straps, no one wants to wait for film anymore and I mean 100 percent of my clients. To survive it will come down to style, work ethic, quality and handling clients as they should be handled.
    Photography is all about experimentation and without it you will never learn art.

    www.guymancusophotography.com

  14. #14
    nei1
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    Re: A prediction

    not sure what"curious minds blah blah"means here?

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    Re: A prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by nei1 View Post
    not sure what"curious minds blah blah"means here?
    I took it as a light-hearted post as in the "curious minds want to know" cliche' from the Enquirer (tabloid) tag line.


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    Re: A prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Dale Allyn View Post
    I took it as a light-hearted post as in the "curious minds want to know" cliche' from the Enquirer (tabloid) tag line.

    Yes I was curious to know if there's anything about film technology and or workflow that is being (or is going to be) revolutionised as we happen to be one of the only hi-end scanner manufacturers left, so we can prepare...

    thanks

    yair
    Yair Shahar | Product Manager | Phase One | Mamiya Leaf
    e: [email protected] | m: +44(0)77 8992 8199 | yaya's blog

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    Administrator, Instructor Guy Mancuso's Avatar
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    Re: A prediction

    Yair which scanner is that now. I would not mind for more fun type things to actually add a film back to my Mamiya MF body.

    The place i was employed several years ago as the chief photographer we had a 8x10 Howtek drum scanner, it still sits there today collecting a lot of dust. Back than which is maybe 10 years ago or more we paid about 24k for it.
    Photography is all about experimentation and without it you will never learn art.

    www.guymancusophotography.com

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    Re: A prediction

    I remember when I had to explain to clients what a "PDF" was and how to view it. That's just one example of an early digital transformation. Since then, everyone (practically) has learned to accept and absorb tech advancement at an almost instant rate. I think people are a lot less intimidated by things like computers and the internet than they were just 10 years ago. All of that leads to clients that have come to accept the idea that there is always a faster way of doing things. And they want it fast!

    Look at stock photography as an example. In the last century (circa 1995) one was forced to look through volumes of large stock photography catalogs then call a rep and negotiate price, then wait for the transparency to be delivered by fedex to the printer. At best that would happen overnight. Now, I can select, download and insert the image into a job within 20 minutes.

    Clients do not care what camera you use. It's all about results. And part of the equation that calculates results is service. How do you explain that you'd be happy to do the job but that you must insist on adding 3 to 5 days (as an example) to the process?

  19. #19
    nei1
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    Re: A prediction

    This is very much a "tounge in cheek" post,however it should be said that I do think it a,albeit vague,possibility.Cameras could advance to an extent where the majority of a professional photographers advantage is anulled,ie,the quality of the image produced.The other weapon of all professionals is of course image selection,only presenting the good images,something we all do,amateur or professional.However all of us with any experience could go to anyones,I repeat anyones,stack of old negatives or digital files and find half a dozen stunning pictures,just waiting to be cropped,well printed and framed.As digital technology becomes more sophisticated that half dozen will possibly change to 50 %.Everyone smiling,stunning quality,beautifully lit.
    Im just trying to open a maybe interesting discussion on what you think is next for the professional and where you think digital technology will take us and the millions of rank amateurs out there.
    Film could be described as dead,its beginning and end are pretty well defined,it will become a very expensive alternative for affectionados,but maybe this will be its saving as the last refuge of professionals.
    Last edited by nei1; 13th November 2008 at 10:27.

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    Re: A prediction

    For more absurd predictions check out my predictions for high-end still photography.

    http://www.doug-peterson.com/wordpre...-still-images/

    First paragraph excerpt:
    Moving Past Analog Analogies

    The first wave of development in digital photography was a struggle to replace film in quality and use. Now that it has, a new wave of development will push photography into new places and redefine still image creation. Digital Photography is about twenty years old; it’s acne is gone and its about time to move out of the family house, and become its own medium.

    Photoshop has already begun this transition. Most features of Photoshop replace analog tools such as airbrushing and dodging and burning. Even seemingly new tools such as Unsharp Mask and Liquify have analog origins. But tools such as HDR move past the imaginings of the analog world into entirely new techniques possible only in a digital workflow. HDR is part of the new wave in photography with entirely new way of representing photographic vision.

    Four attributes of digital photography have improved rapidly since the first mainstream professional digital cameras: resolution, ISO, burst-capture speed, and dynamic range (hereafter: DR). New workflows will arise from these technological advancements and each will bring complete virtualization closer. By virtualization I mean that a particular decision, now made at the time of capture will become part of the information contained in a raw file, able to be easily and accurately changed during post.

    Some of these changes may not take place for decades, but some have already taken place. Exposure is virtualized in current high-end cameras. At the time of capture a photographer has to pick a certain exposure, but contained in the raw file is enough information that the exposure can manipulated during post without artifacts.

    Drastically higher ISOs, burst speeds, and dynamic range will lead to the increased virtualization of photography which will shake the very foundations of still photography. If you thought the transition from film to digital was a game-changer you ain’t seen nothing yet

    Read on for my thoughts on: virtualized shutter, virtualized aperture, virtualized camera position, virtualized lighting ratios, and virtualized subject matter


    Doug Peterson, Head of Technical Services
    Capture Integration, Phase One & Canon Dealer | Personal Portfolio

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    Re: A prediction

    Re-reading this I realize my writing is already out-dated by the incredible roadmap predicted by RED camera company for their still/motion cameras for 2009 and 2010. Much of what I've written about is already on the near horizon.

    Doug Peterson, Head of Technical Services
    Capture Integration, Phase One & Canon Dealer | Personal Portfolio

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    Workshop Member ChrisDauer's Avatar
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    Re: A prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Guy Mancuso View Post
    Well yes and no , there will always be the bottom end feeders out there . Now with there 5DII it will become increasingly more of them.
    Hey, I resemble that remark! I mean resent. Yeah that's it!

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    Administrator, Instructor Guy Mancuso's Avatar
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    Re: A prediction

    LOL i just use that camera as a example but yes you bottom feeder, yea you.

    You know I am joking
    Photography is all about experimentation and without it you will never learn art.

    www.guymancusophotography.com

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    Re: A prediction

    Doug - do you have a link you dont mind sharing - regardng the Red Camera company roadmap?

    pete

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    Re: A prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by PeterA View Post
    Doug - do you have a link you dont mind sharing - regardng the Red Camera company roadmap?

    pete
    http://reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?t=21835

    http://reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?t=21835&page=3

    http://www.engadget.com/photos/reds-...-now-official/

    And on L.L.

    Last edited by Dale Allyn; 13th November 2008 at 16:36. Reason: Fixed link.

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    Re: A prediction

    Thanks dale - 617 is for me.

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    Re: A prediction

    I saw your name written all over it!

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    Re: A prediction

    "What do you call 1000 Wall Street brokers chained and thrown in the ocean after 1000 retired people beat them with a baseball bat?"

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    Re: A prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by nei1 View Post
    This is very much a "tounge in cheek" post,however it should be said that I do think it a,albeit vague,possibility.Cameras could advance to an extent where the majority of a professional photographers advantage is anulled,ie,the quality of the image produced.The other weapon of all professionals is of course image selection,only presenting the good images,something we all do,amateur or professional.However all of us with any experience could go to anyones,I repeat anyones,stack of old negatives or digital files and find half a dozen stunning pictures,just waiting to be cropped,well printed and framed.As digital technology becomes more sophisticated that half dozen will possibly change to 50 %.Everyone smiling,stunning quality,beautifully lit.
    Im just trying to open a maybe interesting discussion on what you think is next for the professional and where you think digital technology will take us and the millions of rank amateurs out there.
    Film could be described as dead,its beginning and end are pretty well defined,it will become a very expensive alternative for affectionados,but maybe this will be its saving as the last refuge of professionals.
    Rumors of film's death are greatly exaggerated.

    That film is prohibitively expensive is a myth. It is expensive for machine gunning, promisicus shooters. It's also more costly for those who use labs to do everything.

    I went "long" on film awhile ago ... I bought a Imacon 949 scanner instead of another digital camera system.

    I have NOT dismantled my darkroom. I think that will be a terrific nitch offering in the near future.

    I get much more joy from shooting a film camera because the camera "dissappears." I have yet to work with a digital camera I like as much as film cameras ... don't quite know why.

    Fav Film cameras: Hasselblad V, Leica M6, Nikon F6

    90% of my favorite images were shot on film. Also couldn't tell you why.

    Like Guy, if I had to shoot film for commercial work I'd hang myself.

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    Re: A prediction

    Dale - the specs on these things are amazing ...finally some interesting new technology and design to get my mind around ...the sensor fil sizes on teh big boy are interesting- looks like a tiny 1gig in uncompressed size - before any manipulations..(GAGGING on storage implications.)

    WOW is ll I can say...

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    Senior Member yaya's Avatar
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    Re: A prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Guy Mancuso View Post
    Yair which scanner is that now. I would not mind for more fun type things to actually add a film back to my Mamiya MF body.

    The place i was employed several years ago as the chief photographer we had a 8x10 Howtek drum scanner, it still sits there today collecting a lot of dust. Back than which is maybe 10 years ago or more we paid about 24k for it.
    Kodak (Creo) scanners in particular the iQsmart family

    Made on the same floor with the Leaf backs

    Yair
    Yair Shahar | Product Manager | Phase One | Mamiya Leaf
    e: [email protected] | m: +44(0)77 8992 8199 | yaya's blog

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    Re: A prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by PeterA View Post
    Dale - the specs on these things are amazing ...finally some interesting new technology and design to get my mind around ...the sensor fil sizes on teh big boy are interesting- looks like a tiny 1gig in uncompressed size - before any manipulations..(GAGGING on storage implications.)

    WOW is ll I can say...
    Pete: Start shopping for your server farm now. No point in waiting until the last minute.

    Oh, and Virginia Tech built a nice little super-computer out of a bunch of lowly Macs a couple of years ago. I think it was only 500 or so PowerMacs. They'll probably sell it cheap now.



    Kidding aside, that's one hell of a sensor (or sensor array?) on that 617.

    d...

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    Re: A prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Dale Allyn View Post
    Pete: Start shopping for your server farm now. No point in waiting until the last minute.

    Oh, and Virginia Tech built a nice little super-computer out of a bunch of lowly Macs a couple of years ago. I think it was only 500 or so PowerMacs. They'll probably sell it cheap now.



    Kidding aside, that's one hell of a sensor (or sensor array?) on that 617.

    d...
    I am shaking my head - as in shaking my head - I have ( thankfully) resisted teh temptations of teh Linhoff technoramas for years..

    now something like this is announced,,( admittedly at least a year away) but..WOW

    the implicaions for visual media production are just mindblowing. comes with Linhof and Alpa mounts. wow wow wow

    did I say wow?

    -

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    Re: A prediction

    The team at RED seem to "get" the flow of the space in which they work... looking forward. A good rep. for customer support, and gutsy innovation. It's fun to watch.

  35. #35
    nei1
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    Re: A prediction

    Doug,very interesting and lucid article,am enjoying the whole website.
    Fotografz,Ive also recently bought a scanner (minolta 5400),the best money Ive ever spent on photography,apart from my M6.

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