I think Mamiya ZD was too early. The key with CMOS and current technology is that you can make cameras for very wide range of use cases and make it easy to use. Thanks to D800 and other high res SLR the high res photo interest has gone up, which increases interest to take it even further, which MF can do. With structural hurdle I meant tech cams, ie detachable back from manufacturer A, body from B and lens from C.
I think a $10k or even $15k state-of-the-art back would make a real difference from a $35k back Phase One style pricing. Many consumers would still be left behind of course, but a lot of new would still be invited.
We are all making assumptions without any real factual marketing information.
How big a specialized tech camera market opportunity would be is anyone's guess. Our anecdotal opinions are somewhat myopic because of our deep personal interest in certain types of photography … which doesn't necessarily translate into a larger appeal.
Besides, $15K would be just the start … then there is the tech camera itself, and the specialized view lenses required to take advantage of a "state of the art" digital back.
Making the jump from the familiar DSLR form of a $3K Nikon D800, to use of a $20K+ tech camera is a pretty big step.
Personally, I think it will continue to move in the opposite direction … which was triggered by the D800 followed by the A7R. Smaller, more familiar cameras with expanded capabilities. All you hear is wishful speculation of a 50 meg 35mm camera. We know more resolution isn't the main driver, but that is an argument that falls on deaf ears.
- Marc