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So, where is the Leica S2?

KeithL

Well-known member
Wish I had the money to put say $30K as a down payment to assure i was high on the list of those who will get early systems.Woody
Woody, with the greatest respect, this is exactly the kind of reaction that Leica will be hoping for. But I suspect that even Leica realise that this will not be the reaction of the vast majority of professionals who have registered or expressed an interest in the S2. Pros are a canny lot, most are more than satisfied with their present equipment and given previous launches will need to be assured on quality and service and seduced by price before even thinking of investing in a brand new system. However, those same professionals will be eternally grateful to the amateur early adopters willing to put the system through its paces and in doing so risk getting burnt :salute:
 

KeithL

Well-known member
I should add if Leica want this photographers custom they have until PMA to announce prices, service details and release dates etc.

Frankly I've had enough of promotion and promises and now need to see facts.
 

jonoslack

Active member
HI There
Well, Frankly I'm not so convinced by all this talk of cost-sensitivity. I think there are various points, but here are a couple

Supposing it costs $9000 to make and market the S2, if they sell it for $10000, they'll have to sell 5 times as many as if they sell it for $15000. I know it sounds screamingly obvious, but it's worth remembering when speaking of pricing.

If you're a truck driver, you need a truck, I don't know how much a truck costs, but I'd have said that an S2 system pales into insignificance in comparison.

Seems to me that for many working professionals (who have both MF and dSLR kits), assuming that it does live up to it's promise, it's going to allow them to ditch their MF gear and their dSLR gear for 1 combined system - expensive changeover, but cheaper afterwards.

Added to which the whole kit is beautiful and cool. Which will probably put off many of the PJ photographers, but for fashion and advertising and fine art work it'll be fairly irresistible.

What this says to me is that if the S2 delivers it's promise (i.e. MF image quality with dSLR convenience and performance). Then it will sell easily at Hassleblad kind of prices. If it doesn't, then it's dead at ANY price.
 

tashley

Subscriber Member
Hmmm, not sure Jono: however good the IQ, you'll not be able to get any movements other than via a TS lens on the front so for a lot of fine art and architectural types it'll never cut the mustard...
 

jonoslack

Active member
Hmmm, not sure Jono: however good the IQ, you'll not be able to get any movements other than via a TS lens on the front so for a lot of fine art and architectural types it'll never cut the mustard...
Hi Tim - I agree that it isn't directed at that marketplace . . . but then, nor is a great deal of MF kit. I don't think it affects my argument.

P.S. I assume that means you won't be wanting one? :)
 

woodyspedden

New member
Woody, with the greatest respect, this is exactly the kind of reaction that Leica will be hoping for. But I suspect that even Leica realise that this will not be the reaction of the vast majority of professionals who have registered or expressed an interest in the S2. Pros are a canny lot, most are more than satisfied with their present equipment and given previous launches will need to be assured on quality and service and seduced by price before even thinking of investing in a brand new system. However, those same professionals will be eternally grateful to the amateur early adopters willing to put the system through its paces and in doing so risk getting burnt :salute:
Keith

First of all I don't have the money to ever consider a S2 system so this was all about wishful thinking. But when you think about a four lens system (at initial release) plus the body, $30K is not unreasonable. Think about how many folks have ponied up >$30K for a Hasselblad H3DII-50.

Of course the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. If these lenses perform as advertised they will be clearly at the top of the MF heap. One look at the MTF curves show that. And apparently the lenses are close to being ready to go so let's hope.

Just my thoughts on the matter

Woody
 

dfarkas

Workshop Member
Hey David

I also want to go if you can help to arrange the visit with the S2. If the price was at all within reason I would jump all over this. This may be the most exciting development in years as Leica seems to have put all its R&D resources into solving the system problems associated with this venue.

There is no question as to the quality of the S2 body and the work that has gone into the development of the lens system for the S2 system. I love it and can't wait for the end result to be known.

Wish I had the money to put say $30K as a down payment to assure i was high on the list of those who will get early systems.

Love it and I mean that. Leica will either hit the home run or be part of the last line of "Casey at the Bat" with this one. Let's hope hard for the home run

Wow!

Woody
Sure Woody. I'd love for you to come out to Vegas as well. I'm sure I can arrange an S2 demo for you.

BTW, you wouldn't have to put down $30K. Anyone can be on our S2 list and we don't require a deposit.

David
 

Ben Rubinstein

Active member
I'm not sure that unless the focus is particularly good and fast and there is an incredible high iso that people will be able to ditch their 35mm systems. Given the current economic realities and from what I read, client apathy to the need for more, I can see far more people sticking with one system only, a top end 35mm system than trying to run two, especially one that probably won't have that great an advantage as a money maker over a 5D mkII or whatever. Simple economics, unless the client sees enough of a difference to pay the extra then it isn't economically viable in a situation where you would still need two systems and the current owned high end system has larger chips and would take a nasty loss on sale..
 
Guy, Woody, and Bradley,

If y'all are the least bit interested in the Leica S2, then it would be well worth your while to make the trip to PMA. David's blog from Photokina sparked my interest in the S2 so I made a special trip to NYC for PhotoPlus just to get a hands-on impression. Believe me it was worth every bit of cost and effort to make the trip.

BTW - Everyone, myself included, asked the Leica reps about cost of the S2 (probably thousands of times). Leica's standard answer was "it will be competitively priced." I sure hope I can afford it because I already I know I want it.

I hope Leica takes a drug dealer approach to marketing the S2. Set very aggressive pricing at launch to get a good base of users hooked on their product which, in-turn, helps drive up demand for the system.

Mark Gowin
 

fotografz

Well-known member
I'm not sure that unless the focus is particularly good and fast and there is an incredible high iso that people will be able to ditch their 35mm systems. Given the current economic realities and from what I read, client apathy to the need for more, I can see far more people sticking with one system only, a top end 35mm system than trying to run two, especially one that probably won't have that great an advantage as a money maker over a 5D mkII or whatever. Simple economics, unless the client sees enough of a difference to pay the extra then it isn't economically viable in a situation where you would still need two systems and the current owned high end system has larger chips and would take a nasty loss on sale..
Oh there are clients that want big meg, high IQ files in MFD territory Ben. The way clients are multi-purposing any given image is why. The squeeze is that you have to deliver that, and fight for every nickle. Clients are busting their budges down to scraps and forcing bidding wars for plum jobs ... so paying for a whole new system, while taking a beating on the old one that's working perfectly well, is just stupid business practices ... a superb way to go out of business even faster :eek:
 

LJL

New member
Marc,
That was kind of the point I was trying to make over Leica creating some sort of "get to market" package that was affordable. If the S2 can do almost everything that a 35mm DSLR can do, within reasonable expectations like NOT doing 6fps or something, AND it can deliver a high quality file like its MF brothers, then one may be able to shed the multiple systems. This all remains to be seen. I think that within the range of things that Leica has targeted the S2 to do, this scenario could be possible. However, if one really is pushing the limits, like needing ISO 25000, or 10fps, or lots of tilt and shift, and stuff like that, then having more than one system seems inevitable. But in the most often used scenarios for weddings (save very dark venues or something), studio work, portraits, macro shots for ads, etc., the S2 seems like it could be a viable single system solution.

Also agree that clients are wanting more multi-purpose capabilities, and also wanting to pay less to get that, so trying to manage multiple systems to cover the work becomes a very difficult task on the business end. This was why I keep thinking that a system like the S2, if offered at a reasonable entry price for most things needed (body and several lenses), could allow some folks to shed some multiple systems and sink into something that could deliver excellent results for a majority of shooting situations....not every situation, but at least 85% or more that pros need most often. Just my thoughts.

LJ
 

Ben Rubinstein

Active member
Oh there are clients that want big meg, high IQ files in MFD territory Ben. The way clients are multi-purposing any given image is why. The squeeze is that you have to deliver that, and fight for every nickle. Clients are busting their budges down to scraps and forcing bidding wars for plum jobs ... so paying for a whole new system, while taking a beating on the old one that's working perfectly well, is just stupid business practices ... a superb way to go out of business even faster :eek:
I realise that Marc but don't understand why anyone would drop their present bigger chipped MFDB systems (to provide for those clients) taking a huge loss in the process when they would still need a canon/nikon system even if they bought an S2. Seems to me that it would be a downgrade for a H3D-39 user for questionable benefits and as you say - very iffy business justification.
 

KeithL

Well-known member
Supposing it costs $9000 to make and market the S2, if they sell it for $10000, they'll have to sell 5 times as many as if they sell it for $15000. I know it sounds screamingly obvious, but it's worth remembering when speaking of pricing.
If they sell one body at $15000 they'll sell one set of lenses and accessories. If they sell five bodies at $10000 they'll sell five sets of lenses and accessories.

Sell the body cheap and make money on the rest.
 
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fotografz

Well-known member
Marc,
That was kind of the point I was trying to make over Leica creating some sort of "get to market" package that was affordable. If the S2 can do almost everything that a 35mm DSLR can do, within reasonable expectations like NOT doing 6fps or something, AND it can deliver a high quality file like its MF brothers, then one may be able to shed the multiple systems. This all remains to be seen. I think that within the range of things that Leica has targeted the S2 to do, this scenario could be possible. However, if one really is pushing the limits, like needing ISO 25000, or 10fps, or lots of tilt and shift, and stuff like that, then having more than one system seems inevitable. But in the most often used scenarios for weddings (save very dark venues or something), studio work, portraits, macro shots for ads, etc., the S2 seems like it could be a viable single system solution.

Also agree that clients are wanting more multi-purpose capabilities, and also wanting to pay less to get that, so trying to manage multiple systems to cover the work becomes a very difficult task on the business end. This was why I keep thinking that a system like the S2, if offered at a reasonable entry price for most things needed (body and several lenses), could allow some folks to shed some multiple systems and sink into something that could deliver excellent results for a majority of shooting situations....not every situation, but at least 85% or more that pros need most often. Just my thoughts.

LJ
I do understand the point clearly. However, people already have what's needed. IMO it is hypothetically unrealistic to think one is going to "shed" multiple systems at a heart stopping loss, just to indulge in a new (as yet unproven) system that is highly likely to be breathtakingly expensive. And frankly, to do that you'd have to indulge in two of them, since you'd then have no back-up. I just went through that scenario when I swapped out from Canon ... before the bottom dropped out at every turn ... which is something I would NOT do now.

What some "insulated" folks do not seem to realize is what perfect financial dung storm it is in the US. Half the thriving commercial studios I did business with as an Art Director are gone. Yesterday I spoke with a "pretty up there" shooter friend of mine in NYC, and his response was "it's challenging." I think we are in for it even worse as the real impact of all this comes home to roost. Challenging indeed. Somehow I just don't picture a Leica S2 in any survival scenario. I wish I could figure a way ... but it involves such a staggering loss as to be unjustifiable ... and I'm the King" of justifying gear purchases :ROTFL:
 

LJL

New member
Marc,
I agree with you that things are going to be rather depressed for some time, and that will force a lot of folks to rethink buying plans. I guess part of the positive news in some of this, is that the S2 will not really be hitting the streets for another 4-6 months or so anyway, plus a few more months for folks to start shaking it down. By that time, we should pretty much know if the economic valley is going to be getting or will be deeper, or if things may start to show some turn-around. (I am really trying to be optimistic in my thinking about the global economics, yet very pragmatic in my personal business plans.)

All that being said, I also agree with your perspective that a fair number of commercial shooters may be just hanging onto and using whatever gear they have now....at least until there is believable uptick. However, things sort of rapidly expanded on the MFDB front last year, and with price drops on some things and new, staggering sizes and prices on others, I would bet there were some folks waiting to see how things would shake out, and then the economy fell off the cliff, changing a lot of plans. So, guys that are fully outfitted with fairly new/recent gear may ride things for a while, rather than spend on new stuff without the business to support it. Others with aging gear are going to be battling with the encroaching DSLR crowds to some degree, so they may be thinking long and hard about just what to do....stick with their 12-20MP backs and stuff and keep plugging away, go with the 22-25MP DSLR kits and see how that works, pony up bucks for 33+MP backs or a new system to get the added resolution and maybe a bit more edge with clients that may want and recognize the differences. No easy calls in there for a lot of folks. Challenging indeed.

It is good to speculate on some of these scenarios, glass (or bottle) of spirit in hand to brace for the future or numb the gnashing teeth ;-) The S2, if it does deliver what it is being talked about, could become a nice system for those needing to jump up, and maybe for those able to rethink their own gear needs and directions. Somebody like you, who does have some fairly recent high end kit with your H3DIIs, or others that recently bought into P45+ and up backs may have little need or interest for some time. Those without extensive MF kits, or those wanting to seriously upgrade from things that are being matched by some of the newer DSLRs, may find the S2 system able to fill a lot of needs....but if it is priced too high, it will not get any traction.

Again, just my thinking on some of this right now, as I am one of those folks that may be having to make some hard choices myself soon enough. The S2 looks very attractive on paper right now, but performance remains to be proven and prices need to be more than competitive against something like the Hasselblad as a more complete system. Not sure that is going to happen, but that is how I am seeing it right now. (No offense to folks shooting Phase, Leaf, Sinar, etc., but none of those systems seem to be getting any cheaper, nor offering anything more streamlined. Better put on the fire suit to battle the flames that may come from that comment, but although versatile, all those others seem much more cumbersome and with too many quirky things. Call me lazy or whatever, but as I said before, I would rather the gear get out of my way, and all of the other systems just seem to not be great at that part for me.)

Hoping that we hear some good and useful news from PMA or whatever soon, mainly to help budget planning for some of us.

LJ
 

fotografz

Well-known member
Marc,
I agree with you that things are going to be rather depressed for some time, and that will force a lot of folks to rethink buying plans. I guess part of the positive news in some of this, is that the S2 will not really be hitting the streets for another 4-6 months or so anyway, plus a few more months for folks to start shaking it down. By that time, we should pretty much know if the economic valley is going to be getting or will be deeper, or if things may start to show some turn-around. (I am really trying to be optimistic in my thinking about the global economics, yet very pragmatic in my personal business plans.)

All that being said, I also agree with your perspective that a fair number of commercial shooters may be just hanging onto and using whatever gear they have now....at least until there is believable uptick. However, things sort of rapidly expanded on the MFDB front last year, and with price drops on some things and new, staggering sizes and prices on others, I would bet there were some folks waiting to see how things would shake out, and then the economy fell off the cliff, changing a lot of plans. So, guys that are fully outfitted with fairly new/recent gear may ride things for a while, rather than spend on new stuff without the business to support it. Others with aging gear are going to be battling with the encroaching DSLR crowds to some degree, so they may be thinking long and hard about just what to do....stick with their 12-20MP backs and stuff and keep plugging away, go with the 22-25MP DSLR kits and see how that works, pony up bucks for 33+MP backs or a new system to get the added resolution and maybe a bit more edge with clients that may want and recognize the differences. No easy calls in there for a lot of folks. Challenging indeed.

It is good to speculate on some of these scenarios, glass (or bottle) of spirit in hand to brace for the future or numb the gnashing teeth ;-) The S2, if it does deliver what it is being talked about, could become a nice system for those needing to jump up, and maybe for those able to rethink their own gear needs and directions. Somebody like you, who does have some fairly recent high end kit with your H3DIIs, or others that recently bought into P45+ and up backs may have little need or interest for some time. Those without extensive MF kits, or those wanting to seriously upgrade from things that are being matched by some of the newer DSLRs, may find the S2 system able to fill a lot of needs....but if it is priced too high, it will not get any traction.

Again, just my thinking on some of this right now, as I am one of those folks that may be having to make some hard choices myself soon enough. The S2 looks very attractive on paper right now, but performance remains to be proven and prices need to be more than competitive against something like the Hasselblad as a more complete system. Not sure that is going to happen, but that is how I am seeing it right now. (No offense to folks shooting Phase, Leaf, Sinar, etc., but none of those systems seem to be getting any cheaper, nor offering anything more streamlined. Better put on the fire suit to battle the flames that may come from that comment, but although versatile, all those others seem much more cumbersome and with too many quirky things. Call me lazy or whatever, but as I said before, I would rather the gear get out of my way, and all of the other systems just seem to not be great at that part for me.)

Hoping that we hear some good and useful news from PMA or whatever soon, mainly to help budget planning for some of us.

LJ
Very well thought out and well reasoned response.

"Get Real" seems to be a sentiment that's sweeping the globe. I just went through that process as my car lease came to an end. I drove 5 different vehicles looking for a replacement, and in the end negotiated a buy-out of my leased 2005 Volvo CX-90 that only has 33,000 miles on it (hardly broke in for a Volvo : -) ... which BTW cost me less than a MFD camera :wtf: Nothing else was the CX-90's equal, and cost 2X as much.

I wish I could assist Leica with their marketing (which was/is my real career). I think Leica could still pique interest even if the S2 is relatively expensive by attaching Value Added aspects for the purchaser. If you look at the competitive set, there are vulnerable aspects to their offerings other than just the performance which may be debatable. What's not debatable is that coverage of most MFD cameras is one year, and you have to pay through the nose for more ... which is limited to 3 years Hot Swap. If Leica added a four or 5 year "Pass Port" type "Transferable" warranty, it would make me sit up and take notice immediately. If their product is really good, then actuarially it shouldn't impact them that much. 5 year/100,000 actuations which ever comes first ...:ROTFL:

If I were running Leica, I would immediately commission someone to manufacture super high quality Leica branded adapters for all major brands of adaptable MF lenses and offer one with every S2. This sounds counter intuitive for a lens maker, but for those with a fortune in glass, it would ease the cost of transition and fill out the gaps until more S2 lenses come on line. For example, I was very interested in the H system for a long time, but didn't make the move until Hasselblad offered the CF adapter to use my huge investment in CFE and CFi optics on the H. Once in the H system, I then steadily built up my system of HC lenses. If I could use my Zeiss FE lenses on an S2, I'd be much more likely to consider immediately adding an S2 and one AF lens ... then began building my Leica S2 AF lens system as I could afford it. It's the notion of a total system swap that makes it such a huge financial deterrent.
 

PeterA

Well-known member
Judging by the number of responses in this thread - there is a great deal of interest in the S2 and why wouldn't there be? The lenses promise a flat MTF curve type excellence that is breathtaking for those that like this stuff. The body promises 40 megapixels in a D700/D3 size.

I would bet London to a brick that the majority users will not be so called professionals. Current user base isnt so why would the next big boy version of the Leica be?

Leica dont 'owe' the professional photographer very much if anything - the scoffed @ dentists, lawyers and investment bankers and collectors seem to be their natural market. I prefer to think their natural market are people prepared to pay a great deal more for a little bit extra - all pretty standard marginal utility and indifference curve economics.

Dream on about a sub $10K body - thats CaNikon land boyz.

I will be interested to see exactly how good the viewfinder is and how hand holdable it is compared to other 40 megapixel offerings. Assuming we dont need to use an IR filter in front of that great glass and assuming flash tech has improved for them and assuming that C1 remains their partner - ( of COURSE) this was the 'strategic partnership' - then pretty much all boxes are ticked for hand held and fixed plane of focus use.

There are lots of uses for a MFD back which the S2 can not deliver. Technical cameras with rise and tilt as well as view cameras are the obvious examples.

One thing for sure - NOT upgrading to 50 megapixels from Hasselblad or Phase etc - goes a long way towards paying for an S2 body - if not all the way.

My strategy? Well I wont be buying anything from Leica until the bleeding edge buyer has discovered the flaws and the company has responded with their fixes. This should give the RED camera company enough time to bring out their promised full frame 645 and 617 technologies.

btw - the real economy should bottom over the next 2 quarters. It will take between 5-10 years to get the average company back up to the taken for granted growth rates we all used to enjoy.

Cheers
Pete
 

Geoff

Well-known member
Not to state the obvious, but we should look to see where new (totally new) formats have come about in cameras, and where they have worked and why. Surely, Leica has done this as well

The first lesson is that photographers are a pretty cautious and conservative bunch - note our attachment to 35 mm format, lenses, etc. long after most of us have shot 35 mm film. Same with MF.

The most significant change was the intro of the point and shoot, and the small sensors - which threw the photog for a loop (what size is that lens now?), but brought reasonable quality, ease, portability, and cost to a whole new range of consumers. Lesson there: if you go downmarket but give quality, people will accept change.

At the upper end of the market (MFDB, Pro DSLR), change has been slow. The market is thinner, the lenses expensive, the investment sizable. It also is more complex to make product at this end of the market, where the pro photog wants all sorts of things that are slightly out of whack with the small size of the market: they want flexibility, quick and reasonable service, upgrades, lesser cost, etc. That sector of the market hasn't been responding quite as fast as we'de like, but there is some modest change over the past 5 years: the product is better, the cost is less, and the usability is greater. Not dramatic, but steady.

Consider the other odd solutions: 617, XPan, etc. Most of these are niche markets and if the combo is just right, people will make the switch. Like the 645 - if you meet the new format needs of most of your clientele, smaller and yet with high end quality, people will make the plunge. Miss that window, and its a cold day in the rain. Hassy almost got it right with the Arc View, but even that was a bit too much money, a bit too much, and was shortlived.

So where is the S2 in this scenario? FIrst, its a new system, which is dangerous ground already. Their concept is to provide MFDB quality, practically 35 mm size, and integrated higher levels of functionality. This is a great concept, and a good starting point. Its sound thinking, and has appeal. Imagine the Contx 645 redone for integrated digital. Or the Phase/Mamiya really done right. Nothing wrong with this idea.

But the problem is in the execution: there is no problem with Leica's detailed execution (given enough time and money) but its the cost issue. Price point is the killer here. And Leica, and most of its European colleagues, have not been willing to show a lot of flexibility in this issue.

Look at the others: Hassy has been the most innovative. They start with basics, they understand a package deal, and have done a pretty good job of changing their models and keeping much of their client base.

Sinar isn't a great model so far. They have begun to show some business awareness, but their M camera (also a flexible platform) hasn't been well situated in the market. Their new Arc-Tec is a wonderful design, but the pricing gets to be seriously...high by the time you add lenses, etc.

Leica.... well there's just not much evidence they know how to deliver a product of this complexity to a broader market. They do a good job of pricing to their constituents, and meeting their costs (we hope), but recent events (their rising prices, and our shrinking pockets) don't auger well for this situation.

I just keep looking for the magic answer here. I remember when, in the early 1990's, Rollei priced a 6003 complete with lens for $3k. Irresistable, and set up a whole pathway for some of us. Hard to imagine lots of people jumping ship for $30k.... but maybe they'll prove this to be the case. I sure hope so - its great idea, and great lenses are always good to have.
 

stephengilbert

Active member
Peter,

"The real economy should bottom over the next 2 quarters"?

Really? I'm sure you know that there are numerous investment opportunitites that would allow you to profit handsomely from that prediction. Certainly enough that you'd be easily able to purchase an S2.

I hope you're right, but I find it hard to believe. California can't even get it Legislature to pass a budget.

Steve
 

KeithL

Well-known member
Leica dont 'owe' the professional photographer very much if anything - the scoffed @ dentists, lawyers and investment bankers and collectors seem to be their natural market...
...which is why they have struggled in the past and have invested so much in the S2. By their own admission the S2 is aimed at the professional market and success will depend on it.

Do you honestly believe, particularly given the dire state of the economy, that the success of the S2 and indeed Leica will depend on a bunch of bankers and dentists?
 
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