Not in the MF market... (or any market outside of the RF, having all but walked away from R glass production).
Technology, $$ invested in R&D and nice features (as yet still on paper) don't make a market success - in fact it's probably at or near the bottom of the top 10 factors to as to why a product succeeds (or not).
Far, far more depends on management smarts, forward thinking beyond the lab, distribution, and marketing, etc., than the bits/bytes.
As for the money invested in the S2 vs Phase backs and Hassy - I'll let company/distributor reps on the forum debate who spent what if they feel inclined. That said it doesn't matter what P/M or H invested -- they ARE the MFDB market (especially in NA) and OWN the rental house shelves.
Customers and rental shops don't buy your gear because you invested more in the tech than the other guy. The R&D pain is the first of the endless 'cuts' you need to endure to get those customers and rental shop owners thinking of you and (hopefully) investing in you first vs. the other guys.
Want to sell a MFDB shooter an S2 kit? The odds are probably 80/20 you'll need to pry a Hassy or Phamiya kit out of their hands first - either of which have dropped in resale like a stone over the last year. You'll also need to convince them that the re-education process and the new-product-risk and the Leica-specific-risk (especially early on) is a worthwhile path to go down.
Is Leica going to offer a buy-out program to buy installed base? Don't think so. Tech aside, it's going to come down to marketing and PROVING the worth of the S2 vs. the competition AND it's reliability AND it's support structure with overwhelming evidence starting with professional owner #1.
Otherwise, given Leica's track record in digital bodies, the moment the bad press starts (IF there is any), the eyes on this thing will see it snowball among the pro market with thoughts of along the lines of "...here they go again..." - as they reach for their (now secure) Phase/Hassy/Leaf kit.
If that starts, it's bye-bye S2, bye-bye R10 and more likely than not an eventual bye-bye to Leica given what they have riding on thus (admittedly gorgeous) puppy.
Lust (for me as well) over Leica's (on paper at least) S2 tech and desire/wish for them to succeed with it won't stop me (or others) from being open-minded enough to state they REALLY have their work cut-out for them - in part:
- Because of the market they want to break virgin ground into
- Because of their track record in digital
- Because of their size
- Because of how dismally suited their (current) S&S structure is to the MF market
- Because of their utter lack of share in the rental market
- Because of the competition
- Because of their pricing tendencies/necessities
- Because of the simple fact that the DSLR depreciation curve is now firmly rooted in the MFDB market
- Because of the world's worst timing (from an economic perspective).
Now, all that said. If they pull it off - it will make a hell of a business case.
"market-experienced 800 lb Gorillas (H and M/P)"
Leica is much bigger than Hasselblad, Mamiya and Phase One together and Dr. Kaufmann invested more money into the S2 (>30Mio € about 100Mio € including other investments related to the S2 and other digital systems / Leitz-Park) than anybody in this segment ever did.
The technical data is promising, many aspects are unique (sealed, smaller, faster...) and everybody who knows what todays Leica-lenses are capable of, won't discuss about 30x45mm vs. 36x48mm or 37,5MP vs. 39/50MP.
Right now, the most conserative (closing a modular system, <2000$-lenses with Canon IQ/build-quality) MF-systems seem to survive, while the most promising systems are crushed by banks (hopefully the last word on the Hy6 isn't spoken) or other shortsighted economists and another innovative system is already bashed everywhere months before it gets released...
It's the first big-digital-MF-project with unique solutions (like ASICs instead of DSPs) we only knew from giants like Canon/Nikon before (not everybody wants high-speed-press-cameras) and I'm curious to see what this system will be capable of.
By the way, the digital compartment of the DMR was Imacon (today Hasselblad), the M8 Jenoptik (Sinarbacks) and both were unique solutions others weren't capable of, just as their drawbacks are not transferable to the S2m which is by the way real Leica, just like the S1.
But that's not the point of this discussion at all, am I right? It's about Leica, not about their strategy, their products, their quality - just about Leica...
