The S2 PMA with David Farkas

[Guy Mancuso]

I agree . Wrong lens choices on release. This delays someone like me


Okay on the road , reports coming tonight. I sent my wallet to Bob for safe keeping. I may need some real help after holding this. Get therapist ready. LOL

 

[robmac]

As per earlier comments, a global & transferrable warranty, in the box, would be a nice first..(in any of these markets).

 

[robsteve]

As per earlier comments, a global & transferrable warranty, in the box, would be a nice first..(in any of these markets).

When has Leica not had that in the box?

 

[ptomsu]

On paper the specs look great and I'd love to see one under the Xmas tree, but:

1. Lets assume price is roughly $15,000 body only
2. All specs come out as intended/wished for (e.g. it's not a paper tiger)

In a ugly global recession in a market where hardware churns every 18 mos and depreciates like a rock off a cliff, we have an (as yet released) $15,000+ large-frame, fixed-MP/sensor DSLR + UBER (and very limited initially) SPENDY glass. This from a firm infamous for glacial S&S, possessing limited financial backing, demonstrative of very slow model churn, MINISCULE (relative) production volumes, an iffy history in digital bodies and NO presence in rental houses.

The so-called alliance w/Phase was a Marx Bros routine re: it's announcement and who is/isn't doing what and was either: a)DOA and simply someone's wishful thinking or b) so premature in its development that NOTHING can be assumed by it - good or bad.

On the S2's underside (market-wise) we have at least three quality 24+MP FF DSLRs that range from 20% to at worst 1/2 the price (body only) of the S2 from players with vastly superior distribution, S&S, products to recover R&D from and resources -- and in the case of N&C, a large rental base and a HUGE selection of usable glass. A DSLR ain't a MFDB, but todays market for photo services isn't last years.

From the top the S2 is bordered by two price-competitive and market-experienced 800 lb Gorillas (H and M/P) and a couple of smaller players - one of whom is all but dead (with more likely to follow). These existing players also posses switchable backs, film capability, a large market of used and refurb backs, much larger lens selections (AF and MF), better S&S and utter domination of the MFDB rental market.

A further unknown is what, if any truth there are to the rumors that Nikon (and/or Canon) may do something in the S2's "tweener" market with a > FF DSLR.

In both markets bordering the S2, the cost/MP is dropping like a rock (relative to old paradigms in each market) and customers are continually demanding (and requiring) more for less.

Leica COULD pull it off, and I understand why Leica is pushing this market vs the eat-your-young DSLR segment but given current conditions and their history, they are going to need to avoid ANY (and I mean ANY) missteps or the S2 will be dead (taking any hope of an R10 with it) before it even has a chance to prove it's merit.

I could not agree more!

Not being a Pro, but a highly demanding amateur on my way to some Pro work in the future, i was burnt heavily with the DMR and the M8 as I was always one of their first users.

For the S2 I thus have stepped back and I am currently considering a H3DII with 50MP back , as this comes closest to my needs / Desires. And I will avoid by that decision any shortcomings, hickups and other not so proper things when the S2 hit the market.

 

[robmac]

When has Leica not had that in the box?

You'd have to be in the habit/experience of buying Leica (especially bodies) new (or recently used) vs well-used to know that :ROTFL:

Given my gear budget/cheap *** nature (not to mention who ever has an issue with R glass anyway, even if used?), the ins/outs of Leica's warranty was never something I needed to explore... ;>

That said, I've done enough GAS research that I should have remembered that. It will be a nice (and refreshing) differentiator in the MFDB world - everything else aside.

 

[woodyspedden]

I could not agree more!

Not being a Pro, but a highly demanding amateur on my way to some Pro work in the future, i was burnt heavily with the DMR and the M8 as I was always one of their first users.

For the S2 I thus have stepped back and I am currently considering a H3DII with 50MP back , as this comes closest to my needs / Desires. And I will avoid by that decision any shortcomings, hickups and other not so proper things when the S2 hit the market.

Seems to me that we are taking as truth that the S2 body will cost $15K. I would guess that Leica will price it more competitively to get people to start buying their glass which will undoubtedly be expensive if past history is an indicator.

If they do charge $15K I think the system will be dead at launch. Even in a good economy this would be tough given the competition, both above and below, but in this economy....................uugh!

The fashion shooters will be using 60Mpx backs with leaf shutters for synch purposes, landscape shooters either a DSLR from Sony, Canon or Nikon or a focal plane solution from the likes of Phamiya with promises of leaf shutters to come.

I am a Leica fanboy and would not trade my M8's for much of anything in this market. I look and sometimes buy all the latest stuff but end up coming back to the M8 for much of my work. I would love to just be rich and go ahead and buy the S2 system and watch others (like me) drool but that is sadly not the case.

Perhaps Leica will be able to sell enough S2 systems to the wealthy amongst us and that will be enough to gain some market share and develop a new reputation in the marketplace. Or perhaps developing the rental channels wil get it done in the pro market, along with the pro support system which would be critical to this market. If they are able to do this and develop an R replacement that is truly best in class against Canon, Nikon and Sony, then we may be watching the ashes blow off the Phoenix. I truly hope so but I am sceptical.

Just my amateurish thoughts so go easy

Woody

 

[robmac]

They just need more unit sales to amortize costs over - start selling glass in Phamiya, Nikon, Sony and EoS mount at palatable prices.

Hell if Cosina can sell a 100/ZF with iffy CA control for US$1500, the 90/2 AA R for $1800 (the current NEW price from SH Photo in Germany as they offload R stocks) in say AiS mount would sell very well.

 

[apocolibri]

Originally posted by Ptomsu
Not being a Pro, but a highly demanding amateur on my way to some Pro work in the future, i was burnt heavily with the DMR and the M8 as I was always one of their first users.

Peter,
Could you illuminate as to how you were "burnt heavily" by the DMR? This is the first I have ever heard of anyone being "burned" by the DMR. To my knowledge most who moved away from the DMR did so because they needed autofocus, faster capture speed (larger buffer) and possibly larger file size. The IQ was consistently proven to be superior to anything Nikon made (at the time) as well as the Canon 1DS2. There were scores of "side by side" tests over on the old DMR Bible thread that Guy started on the Miranda Forum. You knew the limitations (or should have) before buying the camera. It's not Leica's fault that your DMR couldn't compete against Canon or Nikon pro bodies for which it wasn't designed to compete.

Leica R's have never been fast action cameras. Their market has always been the more deliberate shooter who's needs didn't require the speed of a Canon or Nikon pro camera. My intention is not to hijack this S2 thread... but your comment seems a bit over the top with respect to the DMR. Mine has been trouble free since I bought it new in '06.

Personally, I think developing the S2 before the R10 was more than a little misguided. The market potential (given the many exceptional R lenses that have been produced over the years) and the R user base that has been patiently waiting for a digital platform that is not a hybrid (as was the DMR) is many times greater than any potential S2 user base. Given the fact that it is an unproven system, Leica's first autofocus SLR, will require none other than Leica's very expensive (and slow to be released af lenses (unlike it's competition) and a medium format market (for new cameras) that is shrinking and extremely competitive. I think Leica could have recouped costs much faster with an R10 release. An announcement a year ago indicating exactly what the R10 would embody (sensor development being the unknown quotient) might have kept some from bailing to other systems, never to return to Leica slr's.

Switching platforms in a healthy economy is something few can afford to do. It is ludicrous in the current economy. Leica pissed of many DMR uses by abandoning the platform and not replacing it with something significantly better IN A TIMELY MANNER. Someone at Leica needs to be shaken from their slumber. Many of those who invested heavily in the best R glass (like Guy and others on this forum) moved away from the R system when Leica abandoned them. Those who returned to Nikon or Canon are not likely to dump their current systems and move back to Leica IF and when the R10 ever appears.

Though the DMR still works incredibly well for my needs... I'm much more likely to buy the Sony A900 and change lens mounts on my $$$ APO glass than wait for an R10 that is announced one day and denied the next. For the well heeled who don't rely on their camera for income... it may not matter. For those of us who use their cameras to make a living... it's a different proposition. Asking your market base to wait an undetermined period of time and "trust us" doesn't cut it in my book.

Pro support for Leica's S2? That's side splitting funny! My 280 APO went back to Solms three times before they got it right... all made possible by an incompetent cleaning job in New Jersey that left an element loose. Trips to Solms lasted 4, 5 and 5 months, the first of which had the tripod mount mounted so the camera could not shoot horizontal when placed on a tripod! Did Leica send me a loaner? Yeah... a 180 for two weeks. And this after they were told repeatedly that I was using my 280 with the 2X APO converter as I needed the lens length!

Many M8's had to go back to Solms repeatedly for a variety of problems. How is a pro supposed to function when his camera is in Germany for an undetermined amount of time? What is the cost of setting up proper service facilities in several locations in the US and elsewhere? And how many potential S2 buyers will have the means to buy two S2 bodies (one as a backup for when the first one craps out?) ... or is Leica going to be the first to develop a problem free camera that never breaks?

As Marc Williams presciently stated yesterday: "Talk is indeed cheap. When it comes time to shell out the cash, while burning a pile of lost cash on existing systems, will be when the rubber meets the road."

R.I.P. Leica

 

[carstenw]

Hummingbird, check out David Farkas' blog, where Leica has told him more about the service program, and how seriously Leica is taking it. It sounds like in the end they got consulting from Phase One, but will build up their own network.

http://dfarkas.blogspot.com/

 

[apocolibri]

Carsten,
The type of service and rental infrastructure needed to cover the major cities in the US that have the necessary gear for Phase/Leaf backs and Hasselblad systems is pretty significant. Leica would have been in a much better position to address these needs had the collapsing market not halved prices on MF digital goods. Some serious profit margin disappeared and will continue to be diluted as things slow down further. The money has to come from somewhere.

Leica is asking for a huge amount of trust and faith in an untested product with few lenses immediately available for the working pro. Given their history with support for the digital M's and R's... that's quite a lot to ask. No one has that proverbial crystal ball, but unless Leica is willing to dump enormous resources into getting the S2 accepted and supported in the MF digital marketplace (given the low return resulting from collapsing prices), they're more than likely going to bleed cash for a lengthy period of time.

By dumping their remaining R glass at fire sale prices they're not doing much to protect the sizable investment of those R users who bought into the system in recent years. They're also sending a message that, given Kaufmann's response to LFI in their April issue last year, leaves the R user little to bank on.

LFI: Why have things fallen so quiet around the R system?

Kaufmann: The R is a beautiful camera, but today’s market gives preference to other products. I can assure you that we have every intention of leaving a mark in the single lens reflex sector, but that’s all I can say for now.

That leaves a lot of wiggle room as the S2 is an SLR. And for those who don't care to use AF lenses (on the vaporware R10) and would prefer one of the newer designed MF lenses that Leica has suddenly dumped and has no intention of building ever again... where does that leave them? This is anything but a confidence building exercise.

If I were a gambling man (which I'm not), I be doing just as PeterA said and I'd be shorting Leica. I wish I could share your enthusiasm Carsten.

Lawrence

 

[woodyspedden]

Carsten,
The type of service and rental infrastructure needed to cover the major cities in the US that have the necessary gear for Phase/Leaf backs and Hasselblad systems is pretty significant. Leica would have been in a much better position to address these needs had the collapsing market not halved prices on MF digital goods. Some serious profit margin disappeared and will continue to be diluted as things slow down further. The money has to come from somewhere.

Leica is asking for a huge amount of trust and faith in an untested product with few lenses immediately available for the working pro. Given their history with support for the digital M's and R's... that's quite a lot to ask. No one has that proverbial crystal ball, but unless Leica is willing to dump enormous resources into getting the S2 accepted and supported in the MF digital marketplace (given the low return resulting from collapsing prices), they're more than likely going to bleed cash for a lengthy period of time.

By dumping their remaining R glass at fire sale prices they're not doing much to protect the sizable investment of those R users who bought into the system in recent years. They're also sending a message that, given Kaufmann's response to LFI in their April issue last year, leaves the R user little to bank on.

LFI: Why have things fallen so quiet around the R system?

Kaufmann: The R is a beautiful camera, but today’s market gives preference to other products. I can assure you that we have every intention of leaving a mark in the single lens reflex sector, but that’s all I can say for now.

That leaves a lot of wiggle room as the S2 is an SLR. And for those who don't care to use AF lenses (on the vaporware R10) and would prefer one of the newer designed MF lenses that Leica has suddenly dumped and has no intention of building ever again... where does that leave them? This is anything but a confidence building exercise.

If I were a gambling man (which I'm not), I be doing just as PeterA said and I'd be shorting Leica. I wish I could share your enthusiasm Carsten.

Lawrence

Lawrence

Just a clarification. Leica apparently sold the entire R inventory to SH Photo in Germany. Anyone who has dealt with Boris will attest that, while being a very reputable dealer who deliver what they promise, their products are notoriously expensive. I don't think anyone should be looking forward to "fire sale" prices.

Woody

 

[robmac]

SH are listing all the Leica factory inventory at 50% off list. Examples : New, full warranty; 100 APOs or 90 AA Rs for US$2110, 80-200/4s $925, 70-180/2.8 APOs $4500, etc, etc. In short, new full factory warranty gear at just above current (NA) used market. Bye, bye used market prices.

http://shop.shphotoshop.de/epages/e...ath=/Shops/es104977_shphoto/Categories/LeicaR

Some nice gear listed. Whatever price Boris got, it was a good one if he's making a decent profit at those levels. Me, I smell smoke ;>

 

[carstenw]

Leica did not sell massive amounts of gear to SH Photo. Most items listed were in the low single digits for availability. A blip on the horizon which won't change anything. They simply sold the last few items.

Let's wait and see what happens with the service. No one is going to risk their business on good feelings. It is too early to have intelligent discussions about how good it will or won't be.

 

[robmac]

You can have intelligent discussions - they just may not prove to be correct in hindsight ;>

What I do find funny among all the various boards is that if people viewed the Leica S2 case in a cold hearted "not intended to reflect actual persons living or dead, etc" manner, I think a lot of people's opinions would shift:
------------------------
Assume you're writing a business case for your local business school and want to avoid being sued.

Describe the existing economic climate, conditions of the camera markets, players, FX, etc.

Then outline Leica's recent history, business model, S&S structure & history and user experiences, pricing, relative size, track record in glass, film and digital Rf and SLR bodies, technology, manufacturing capacities, financials, management, history re: the MFDB market, rental houses, etc. etc, etc. In short, everything you need to make an informed business decision.

>> HOWEVER instead of calling it Leica, call it "Acme Camera". No references to any "Leica" at all.

Now describe the recent moves with the R, quote the recent emails from management re: same (no coloring of the text), the announced S2 and their public/interview statements re: the strategy for the S2, partnerships, etc., etc. In short - a full data download on the Acme S2 program.

Then describe the dynamic and economies of the MFDB markets and players, the current fiscal condition of the professional photography service markets, the rental house dynamic, S&S needs, etc. In short all the critical issues that ANY MFDB would need to take into consideration selling into that dynamic this year and say next.

Again, no reference to Leica - it's "Acme".

Now sit back. If you could look at the overall picture, coldly, sans emotion and taking into the mix ALL the current variables/market and company-specific conditions, I think you'd be VERY hard pressed to give "Acme" decent odds of pulling it off - as much as you love to cheer for an underdog.

 

[KurtKamka]

And, that's what makes sitting back and watching all of it shake out all the more interesting. It's great to have all of the well-thought out and well-intentioned arguments laid out in front of you ... but the minute you strip out branding, perception, human emotion, irrational exuberance, market environment, or smugly dismissed intangibles from the business case, you get the calculation wrong.

 

[robmac]

While it's fun to speculate as we see the S2/R10 shake out, no matter which way the S2 goes the MFDB market is going to be a VERY different animal 12 mos from now - as it was 12 mos ago.

 

[KurtKamka]

Excellent point, Rob. The companies with the best balance sheets and most cash reserves could win out over companies with the better technology/products in this economic downturn. The best time for buying MFDB gear is probably still months in the future.

 

[robmac]

Yeah - it's bad the two (innovation and cash) don't always go hand in hand.

 

[LJL]

Rob,
There was a similar "bet the company" business case like this over the Boeing 777. If Boeing had followed the "most probable" scenario, the plane would never have been built, and they would have just folded up the tents to Airbus. We know how the decisions are playing out decades later. Not saying Leica will succeed or fail in this case, as there are still a lot of things that could happen. You are right, from a cold-hearted "this is business" approach, what they are doing sounds a bit over the edge, but this is one of those situations where brand and reputation, both sterling and tarnished, does make a difference. While I doubt that any business model could have truly foreseen the severity of the present economic situation, it too will pass at some point (hopefully sooner than too many are suggesting). The question becomes will Leica be able to weather these issues. To me, it sounds like they may have to take some steps that are questionable or unpopular, like dropping R9 and R glass, but that may have been paths in the plans years ago, just having to be triggered now rather than later. It is easy for us to armchair analyze things, as it is not our company and wealth on the line, and we have other positions to take. Personally, I am cutting Leica some slack on some things, but not giving an inch on others, like service and support. Those are still things that can be addressed, while some of the physical manufacturing parts may be a bit harder. (Though they are adding a new AF-lock button, so things are still somewhat fluid.) Anyway, just my more optimistic thoughts on some of this. Still based in realism, but wanting to see them succeed.

LJ

 

[robsteve]

Again, no reference to Leica - it's "Acme".

There is the flaw in your scenario. You are forgetting the power and reputation of the name. Many a deal has been made and this value shows up on the balance sheet as the intangible "Goodwill".

Many a deal has also been made where too much has been paid for this goodwill and we are seeing these goodwill impairment charges showing up as expenses on companies earnings now

Robert