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Thread: The S2 is a huge opportunity - it's the adapters stupid

  1. #51
    Senior Member KeithL's Avatar
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    Re: The S2 is a huge opportunity - it's the adapters stupid

    Quote Originally Posted by yaya View Post
    56MP...
    We'll have a new page for European promotions shortly
    Yair, I'd be grateful if you could post a link here.

    I'm currently looking at all options...

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    Senior Member yaya's Avatar
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    Re: The S2 is a huge opportunity - it's the adapters stupid

    Hello Keith, sure I will. In them meantime you can see some of the offers on Peartree's website
    Yair Shahar | Product Manager | Phase One | Mamiya Leaf
    e: [email protected] | m: +44(0)77 8992 8199 | yaya's blog

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    Re: The S2 is a huge opportunity - it's the adapters stupid

    Wow, if the S2 accomplishes nothing more (and I know it will) it has driven the back manufacturers to go crazy with their prices in advance of the real launch.

    Woody

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    Administrator, Instructor Guy Mancuso's Avatar
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    Re: The S2 is a huge opportunity - it's the adapters stupid

    I agree tough times means some pricing decreases. Not the greatest thing in the world but if it can bring someone into the MF world that was sitting on the fence than i think it is a good thing. As long as we don't see more OEM's closing there doors . Now that is a bad thing for all.
    Photography is all about experimentation and without it you will never learn art.

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  5. #55
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    Re: The S2 is a huge opportunity - it's the adapters stupid

    I wouldn't give credit to the S2. Not only is it not out yet but it's expected to be (at best) a like-priced (to pre-yesterday values anyway) kit.

    A far more likely scenario, especially given the current pricing curve on lower-MP-count MFDB systems, will see the S2 as a (hefty) premium system.

    Given Leica's history, tendencies and economic size, not to mention the raft of R&D just spent (vs well behind H & P in that MP range), there is only so far Leica can lock-step down the 38-39MP pricing curve (as much as they intended to do so) before the S2 becomes economically undoable.

    It puts Leica in a bind if things continue. They could the S2 HAVE to be priced (their pricing tendencies aside) at snack brackets that, upon the S2's release, have become 45-50MP territory for H, P and Leaf. You can also assume that upon the S2s release, promotions will be forthcoming to given even greater hesitation to any folks looking to jump.

    The S2 will also be at the lower-end (never though I'd say this about 38-39MP kit) of the MP-count range -- going up against products like the H3DII-39 which looks to be starting to be pushed down the stack by Hassy (they really seem to be pushing it) to become their entry high-spec kit (probably not explaining what I mean well).

    In short, the last thing Hassy et al have to worry about is Leica offering a top quality product (a given) at cut-rate prices (no way) to steal share.

    If anything Leica needs to get the S2 out early and price it as aggressively as the spreadsheets will allow - even to the point of loosing margin on a per body basis and push the glass. That said, won't happen.

    The current moves are Hassy trying to entice nervous Leaf-Sinar shooters after the F&H news and Leaf trying to re-assure/keep the same group - and maybe, just maybe, entice some shooters over to avoid sales stagnation as people hold fire to see how the Sinar situation plays out.

    It would be an obvious conclusion that Phamiya will be next.

    ...Just some opinionated mutterings from the cheap seats ;>
    Last edited by robmac; 10th March 2009 at 07:06.

  6. #56
    Workshop Member ptomsu's Avatar
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    Re: The S2 is a huge opportunity - it's the adapters stupid

    @ robmac et al.

    I agree with most of your thoughts. If Leica does not aggressively price the S2 and try to get some money back from lens sales, they will be dead from the beginning.

    Hasselblad seems to be currently the big Gorilla in the digital MF market and this gives them some power to use the weakness of competitors for their own advantage. Even if Dr. Kaufmann throws in some more millions of Euros he will not be able to bring the S2 up from ground against Hasselblad - if they decide to keep Leica off the playground. And I do not see any reasons why Hasselblad would not do their homework and try not to get another competitor.

    The good side on this fight is, that it will bring overall price levels down.

    The sad (bad) side is, that it shows how even a technically excellent product can be dead before it even gets market share, just because of economics.

    The only chance would have been that Leica had the S System ready for shipment at last PK 2008, and this to attractive prices. Each month they take longer for market introduction, the prices decrease and the possibilities for S System success diminish significantly.

    Who wants to bet? Lets talk about this again in 8 months

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    Re: The S2 is a huge opportunity - it's the adapters stupid

    "Lets talk about this again in 8 months."

    How likely is that? I think you mean "lets talk about this for eight months."

  8. #58
    Workshop Member ptomsu's Avatar
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    Re: The S2 is a huge opportunity - it's the adapters stupid

    Quote Originally Posted by stephengilbert View Post
    "Lets talk about this again in 8 months."

    How likely is that? I think you mean "lets talk about this for eight months."
    No, I meant exactly what I wrote

    I have the feeling you are a Leica fan ????

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    Re: The S2 is a huge opportunity - it's the adapters stupid

    As long as everybody plays well with others, we should talk about it - Leica is. ;>

    You can't announce a product like the S2, say "here it is, here's our radical plan for it; here's how wonderful it is; here's the shows it's at - come see it (and hand it to LFI to talk-up); here's how easily it's going to steal Hassy & Phase's girlfriends, etc.; -- you just wait 8-10 months!" and NOT expect people to talk about it.

    The S2's intended market segment, after years of stagnation, is now undergoing MASSIVE changes with every passing month. Accordingly, the inevitable new products, price lobotomies, Chapter 11s, mergers, etc., will get interested/opinionated/bored people with keyboards wondering how it will effect the S2's success.

    Such is life in the WWW-age. The trick is to keep it at an adult level. So, far we're doing pretty well.
    Last edited by robmac; 10th March 2009 at 14:58.

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    Re: The S2 is a huge opportunity - it's the adapters stupid

    using that 36 x 56 sensor and taking a couple of 10mm shifts would give you...full frame 2-1/4

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    Re: The S2 is a huge opportunity - it's the adapters stupid

    Quote Originally Posted by robmac View Post
    I wouldn't give credit to the S2. Not only is it not out yet but it's expected to be (at best) a like-priced (to pre-yesterday values anyway) kit.

    A far more likely scenario, especially given the current pricing curve on lower-MP-count MFDB systems, will see the S2 as a (hefty) premium system.

    Given Leica's history, tendencies and economic size, not to mention the raft of R&D just spent (vs well behind H & P in that MP range), there is only so far Leica can lock-step down the 38-39MP pricing curve (as much as they intended to do so) before the S2 becomes economically undoable.

    It puts Leica in a bind if things continue. They could the S2 HAVE to be priced (their pricing tendencies aside) at snack brackets that, upon the S2's release, have become 45-50MP territory for H, P and Leaf. You can also assume that upon the S2s release, promotions will be forthcoming to given even greater hesitation to any folks looking to jump.

    The S2 will also be at the lower-end (never though I'd say this about 38-39MP kit) of the MP-count range -- going up against products like the H3DII-39 which looks to be starting to be pushed down the stack by Hassy (they really seem to be pushing it) to become their entry high-spec kit (probably not explaining what I mean well).

    In short, the last thing Hassy et al have to worry about is Leica offering a top quality product (a given) at cut-rate prices (no way) to steal share.

    If anything Leica needs to get the S2 out early and price it as aggressively as the spreadsheets will allow - even to the point of loosing margin on a per body basis and push the glass. That said, won't happen.

    The current moves are Hassy trying to entice nervous Leaf-Sinar shooters after the F&H news and Leaf trying to re-assure/keep the same group - and maybe, just maybe, entice some shooters over to avoid sales stagnation as people hold fire to see how the Sinar situation plays out.

    It would be an obvious conclusion that Phamiya will be next.

    ...Just some opinionated mutterings from the cheap seats ;>
    Hey Rob, I can't agree with you here.

    My sources tell me that the original Hassy price crash just prior to Photokina, was based on knowledge of the impending S2. This strategy, while dangerous, is understandable. If you believe the S2 system is going to be popular then the price crash does one of two things.......forces Leica to follow you into those waters or price to their usual model and be way more expensive than their competition. In these economic times a hefty price differential will be hard to swallow for potential customers. But Leica keep saying they will be pricing the S2 competitively (whatever that exactly means). So we will just have to wait for the dust to settle in late summer then will we know

    Woody

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    Senior Member stephengilbert's Avatar
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    Re: The S2 is a huge opportunity - it's the adapters stupid

    Peter,

    You may have meant exactly what you wrote, but I seriously doubt that you'll wait eight months before talking about this again. I don't know whether I qualify as a "Leica fan." I'd like to see the S2 succeed, but I'm not likely to buy one. And I feel no need to constantly opine on the chances of its success or failure. This is like sports fans talking about who's going to win tomorrow's game. Why not wait until the camera is on the market and see what happens? I don't claim to know what people I've never met are going to buy next summer. How can you be so sure?

    Steve

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    Re: The S2 is a huge opportunity - it's the adapters stupid

    Woody, it will be interesting to see.

    I will agree in that I could see H doing what they did pre-Photokina to (as you essentially say) say force Leica into a corner. You wnat to benchmark to our $$$? Ok, here's a lower benchmark - care to change your historic pricing model?

    That said, for some reason I thought you were referring to the H & Leaf discounts, etc announced over the couple of days as being due to the S2. Obviously not your intent. So, in effect, some x00 words later, we discover we (at least partially) agree ;>
    Last edited by robmac; 10th March 2009 at 16:48.

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    Senior Member yaya's Avatar
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    Re: The S2 is a huge opportunity - it's the adapters stupid

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithL View Post
    Yair, I'd be grateful if you could post a link here.

    I'm currently looking at all options...
    As Keith and others requested, here are some of the European Promotions
    Yair Shahar | Product Manager | Phase One | Mamiya Leaf
    e: [email protected] | m: +44(0)77 8992 8199 | yaya's blog

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