The bottom line here is that nobody commenting in this thread...nobody... has any hard factual information as to the number of X1Ds that Hasselblad is capable of producing now or over the next few months. Nobody here knows when DJI provided the additional funding to Hasselblad to expand production. Nobody here knows how long it will take Hasseblad to expand production from the time the capital comes in the door. Nobody here knows how much technical support DJI may be providing to Hasselblad. Nobody here knows what Hasselblad's goal is in terms of expanded monthly production. However, notwithstanding the lack of any hard factual data, somebody announces that Hasselblad can only produce 100 units per month. Do the math. If there are preorders for say 5,000 units, it will take Hasselblad over 4 years to fill the preorders. Alternatively, if you are saying that Hasselblad will be able to slowly increase production to 200 units per month, it will take say 2-3 years to fill the preorders. What's the basis for such dire predictions? Some conversations with Leica employees about Leica's experience in producing S camera bodies? I know Hasselblad is trying to spin the mystique of hand made production in Sweden, but I don't think assembling X1D bodies is equivalent to producing mechanical watches by hand at Patek Phillipe in Switzerland.
Historically, I have heard that traditional medium format digital companies like Phase One/Hasselblad are capable of producing 100 - 200 digital backs/cameras per month. The bottlenecks not only would include personnel and facilities, but also suppliers (positive yields from sensor suppliers, for example). So - this 100 per month number to me doesn't seem unrealistic.
However, if it's true Hasselblad projected 3,000 units for the X1D, they would likely have already made arrangements for increased monthly production. But if the pre-orders are indeed in the 5,000 - 10,000 unit range, then they would necessarily need to make a lot of changes to those initial considerations to produce the increased capability to ship within a reasonable amount of time, and as someone said, this adjustment would take some time.
Traditionally, new digital backs/cameras start shipping in small numbers (I would guess 40-60 per month), and then eventually ramp up to 100-200 per month). If Hasselblad was thinking 3,000 units per year and the number turned out to be 10,000 - 12,000 units per year, that is indeed an unforeseen problem that would have significant consequences. It would require a complete re-think on the costs and methodology of production. This second round of DJI investment could have been planned from the very beginning. Or, it could have come about as the production situation became starkly clearer to both parties. No one knows for sure.
In any event - with DJI did making a second substantial investment, they seem to be firmly committed to Hasselblad, and a huge part of that commitment has to be tied to their subjective interest in the success of the X1D, and the production of the X1D, which is central to Hasselblad's current product strategy.
* Don't shoot me, I'm not trying to throw facts out there, or speculation. I'm only relaying what I have come to understand in recent years, with regard to production ramp ups with these companies.
Steve Hendrix/CI
