in fairness, maybe the entire phrase "assuming it is released" should be accompanied by more caveats. Leica has a lot invested in the S2 at this point. Prototypes exist, lenses exist, meaning there is probably more than just the prototype build line in place. They are still talking "late Summer 2009" or so. The economy is grim. The price floor also dropped quite a bit with Hasselblad and Phase/Mamiya announcing their repricing on things. In other words, things are not even close to what may have been used in manufacturing and profitability calculations when the S2 was conceived and later announced. So, Leica could decide to sit on release for a while, hoping the economy recovers enough to get folks being able to spend again. The gamble there is whether they would have lost any more ground on their plans for a new market entrant, and whether the tech going into the presently designed S2 would really start to be outdated. Would they release something that was even further behind the curve, at a later date? Or, would the S2 become the S2.2 or S3 by the time they got it out the door? Not an easy call on that.
With respect to Leica not releasing something they have announced....well, we do not have the full frame M8/M9 that was talked about and "promised" before. We do not have the successor to the R9 as was promised for some time. In fairness, there is supposed to be a significant revamp, utilizing the new tech gained from the S2 line, etc., but no mention of when or even if anymore. There was never the updates promised for the DMR, as far as I can tell. So, in a sense, they have made announcements for things that have not materialized, for various reasons. The point being, that the S2 could be delayed a lot, shelved, or transformed into something else. Maybe not so likely, but as Marc said, none of us have ever seen an economy like what we are in right now, and the Fortune 500 companies have lost 84% of their collective values since last year. My accountant commented that the average losses posted by his well-off clients was 47% of their portfolios. That is not insignificant.
Anyway, I am trying to take a more optimistic perspective on things, but am always being grounded by the reality that surrounds us when new clients are harder to come by and old ones are not spending but a fraction of what they used to. If the S2 comes into this environment at 2007-2008 Leica premium prices, they may not sell very many at all....even to the Ferrari folks, as those folks may no have their Ferraris any longer either ;-)
LJ
With respect to Leica not releasing something they have announced....well, we do not have the full frame M8/M9 that was talked about and "promised" before. We do not have the successor to the R9 as was promised for some time. In fairness, there is supposed to be a significant revamp, utilizing the new tech gained from the S2 line, etc., but no mention of when or even if anymore. There was never the updates promised for the DMR, as far as I can tell. So, in a sense, they have made announcements for things that have not materialized, for various reasons. The point being, that the S2 could be delayed a lot, shelved, or transformed into something else. Maybe not so likely, but as Marc said, none of us have ever seen an economy like what we are in right now, and the Fortune 500 companies have lost 84% of their collective values since last year. My accountant commented that the average losses posted by his well-off clients was 47% of their portfolios. That is not insignificant.
Anyway, I am trying to take a more optimistic perspective on things, but am always being grounded by the reality that surrounds us when new clients are harder to come by and old ones are not spending but a fraction of what they used to. If the S2 comes into this environment at 2007-2008 Leica premium prices, they may not sell very many at all....even to the Ferrari folks, as those folks may no have their Ferraris any longer either ;-)
LJ