Why I would think that the X2D and GFX 100 fill be reasonably priced...

[ErikKaffehr]

Hi,

I would think that there is little doubt the X2D and the GFX 100 are around the corner. The only question is how far away that corner is.

I would think once the new cameras arrive, they will be priced around or below 10k$US, nothing like 33k$US like for the Hasselblad 6D 100c. Why I think so?

To begin with the new sensor is still 44x33 mm. Manufacturing cost depends mostly on area, although complexity also plays a role. So, a 100 MP sensor at 44x33 mm may be a bit more expensive than a 50 MP sensor of the same size. But a 54x41 mm sensor will always be several times more expensive than a 44x33 mm sensor if it is built at the same plant.

The new sensor will also have a good amount of improvement, like better support for autofocus, possibly phase detection, better DR and higher read out rates, as it is probably designed for use with EVF cameras. The 100 MP sensor will be the only one having these new functionality. Sony is not going to make a generation II of the old sensor.

So, I guess that both Hasselblad and Fuji will sell them in volume, and that needs reasonable pricing.

Another question is if we are going to see a Hasselblad X2D? They could do a couple of decent things like adding a remote control port a new view finder and a joystick for focusing.

It could also be that they may have a better hardware/firmware platform, due to the cooperation with DJI. That develoment may be in phase with the new 100 MP sensors, or it may not.

My guess is that Fuji GFX and Hasselblad X1D are the major players in small format MFD (44x33 mm) right now. The sales numbers are not well known.

Best regards
Erik

 

[stephengilbert]

Who do you think will win the World Cup?

 

[ErikKaffehr]

Which World Cup?

1. Ladies downhill, Lindsay Vonn.
2. Equestrian Show jumping, Michael Whitaker

All probably wrong....

The prediction on next generation of MFD on other hand is based a bit on understanding physics, economics and the market.

Best regards
Erik

Who do you think will win the World Cup?

 

[Shashin]

Having been a member of Dante's forum for some time, what exactly does "reasonably priced" mean?

 

[retcheto]

Having been a member of Dante's forum for some time, what exactly does "reasonably priced" mean?

He’s guessing under $10k which seems reasonable in this category. I would upgrade at that price if it has the enhancements we’re guessing it will have.

 

[JohnBrew]

It really doesn't matter the price point of these 100mp bodies. I have no desire to mess with files of this size.

 

[kdphotography]

Having been a member of Dante's forum for some time, what exactly does "reasonably priced" mean?

It means, "C'mon in. The water's fine." :ROTFL:

It's really not very material whether the X2D and/or GFX 100 are announced with a $9,999, $11K or even a $14K MSRP. These cameras are in a sweet spot and offer great bang for the buck. You need to invest a lot more money to get more performance/capability----as is typical with many things. For many of us, these smaller mirrorless cropped medium format cameras are great companions to our more expensive Phase/Hasselblad MFDB systems. Regardless----the X1D and GFX are gateway drugs in Dante's Forum. They are "reasonably priced." :scry:

Ken

 

[Boinger]

It means, "C'mon in. The water's fine." :ROTFL:

It's really not very material whether the X2D and/or GFX 100 are announced with a $9,999, $11K or even a $14K MSRP. These cameras are in a sweet spot and offer great bang for the buck. You need to invest a lot more money to get more performance/capability----as is typical with many things. For many of us, these smaller mirrorless cropped medium format cameras are great companions to our more expensive Phase/Hasselblad MFDB systems. Regardless----the X1D and GFX are gateway drugs in Dante's Forum. They are "reasonably priced." :scry:

Ken

I definitely agree with the gateway part. My gateway drug was a 645z. I loved the files.....

Fast Forward:


Now I have a tech cam and 4 lenses! and an X1D and getting rid of my 35mm stuff.

 

[GrahamWelland]

I’m not so sure that the sweet spot for 100mp will be under $10k. I would assume that the initial pricing could easily be 50% greater than current 50mp bodies and doubtless drop over the next 18mo.

 

[ErikKaffehr]

Hi Graham,

The X1D is at 6495:- at B&H right now while the FGX is 6499:-. So a 50% hike in price would be below $10k.

My reasoning is in part that 100MP is more the next generation sensor that will replace the 50MP in the long run.

Best regards
Erik

I’m not so sure that the sweet spot for 100mp will be under $10k. I would assume that the initial pricing could easily be 50% greater than current 50mp bodies and doubtless drop over the next 18mo.

 

[GrahamWelland]

Well my point was based on intro prices and not the current fire sale prices. I still think that both vendors will price on value vs racing to the bottom which is the death march for tech and companies.

However, just my opinion and if i could forecast accurately I’d be typing this from my yacht moored in the Caribbean and not my delayed United flight home at 12am in San Francisco!

 

[Christopher]

GFX100 - 12.999EUR and X2D 14.999EUR

 

[KeithL]

Listen, I have it on good authority that the X2D will be priced at under 5,000 Euros.

Oh wait a minute, bugger, that was just last night's dream!

 

[hcubell]

GFX100 - 12.999EUR and X2D 14.999EUR

This seems to me to be a very good estimate. What's not at all clear is what, if anything, Fuji and Hasselblad will do to provide options at a lower price point like the GFX and the X1D now occupy. These price estimates are MUCH higher than today's prices, and are beyond the reach of much of the new customer base for medium format that they have created with their current offerings. Here's the rub. There is nothing on the roadmap for a new 50MP Sony medium format sensor. Will Sony even continue to produce the existing 50MP sensor? The other thing is that newer Fuji and Hasselblad cameras incorporating the new 100MP sensor will likely incorporate new and significantly upgraded hardware and firmware that can take advantage of it. Will there still be a market for a camera body with distinctly compromised capabilities and features?

 

[Geoff]

My guess is that Fuji GFX and Hasselblad X1D are the major players in small format MFD (44x33 mm) right now. The sales numbers are not well known.

Yes...

 

[jduncan]

Hi Graham,

The X1D is at 6495:- at B&H right now while the FGX is 6499:-. So a 50% hike in price would be below $10k.

My reasoning is in part that 100MP is more the next generation sensor that will replace the 50MP in the long run.

Best regards
Erik

It makes a lot of sense. It could be that the new camera is so far ahead that it warranties a "hike" greater than 50% but I believe it will be an error (unless). Even if people will buy it, consolidating the market is far more important.

The unless a part is we get both :
1. An X2D-100C
2. An improved X1D (not existence) that fill the lower end of the spectrum.

I truly hope that they stay below 10K

Best regards,

 

[hcubell]

It makes a lot of sense. It could be that the new camera is so far ahead that it warranties a "hike" greater than 50% but I believe it will be an error (unless). Even if people will buy it, consolidating the market is far more important.

The unless a part is we get both :
1. An X2D-100C
2. An improved X1D (not existence) that fill the lower end of the spectrum.

I truly hope that they stay below 10K

Best regards,

The problem for both Hasselblad and Fuji is balancing the price point with the cost of the improvements in hardware. Things like upgraded sensors, EVFs, LCDs and processors. All of these things involve tradeoffs between price and performance. Just as one example, how much more would Hasselblad's or Fuji's target market pay for a major upgrade in the EVF? Nothing, $200, $500, $1,000? (I know what I personally would pay, but I am an official card carrying member of Dante's Inferno.) My sense is that Fuji sees its target market as very price sensitive. They are selling a lot of GFXs to people who normally buy DSLRs, who are willing to pay $6k but would balk at $9k-$10k. The other thing is that if there is no updated 50MP Sony sensor and that sensor is the big bottleneck in producing a camera with significantly upgraded performance, I am not sure I see how Hasselblad continues to sell the X1D while also selling an X2D with much better performance (NOT just megapixels). Shooting with an H6D-50 is not a fundamentally different experience from shooting with the H6D-100; just more megapixels.

 

[Boinger]

It makes a lot of sense. It could be that the new camera is so far ahead that it warranties a "hike" greater than 50% but I believe it will be an error (unless). Even if people will buy it, consolidating the market is far more important.

The unless a part is we get both :
1. An X2D-100C
2. An improved X1D (not existence) that fill the lower end of the spectrum.

I truly hope that they stay below 10K

Best regards,

You have to remember that this sensor is very old. I actually think the X2d will be priced around $10-$11k USD. It simply does not make sense to increase the price when you have had so much success at that price point. It is also why when the 645z launched which at the time was a expensive sensor, but they still sold it at $8,500 vs the hasselblad h5d-50c was $27,000. Just because it is a newer sensor and 100mp does not automatically make it more expensive. The 645X from pentax will probably be priced at their normal price of $8500 - $9000 I don't see them increasing it. The GFX will still try to remain competitive around the Pentax price point. So Hasselblad will also have to do the same with maybe a slight premium. I also think they make much more money from their optics vs the body. So it makes sense to allow people to enter cheap, and then spend on glass.

Even at the current price $6500 seems like a good deal until you start adding 2-3 lenses then that is suddenly another $10k.

Also they would want people to experience the newer body with much more likely a better user experience. I personally will wait until I can grab one for around $6500 I just bought a X1d and I really don't have any issues with how it works for me.

I am also concerned how the 100MP will play in terms of sensor noise on a small sensor. I do long exposures a lot and noise is more important to me than MP's.

 

[Christopher]

Don‘t forget Fuji’s GFXr, which might be around 4200EUR

 

[drevil]

guys, go outside and take pictures!

but my guess is, the new cameras wont be 10% more expensive than their predecessors, mark my words!! :grin:

and germany will win the world cup!