D850

[jduncan]

What is all this talk about "the last DSLR"? The DSLR market is still almost twice as big as the mirrorless market, and it's basically shared by two companies, Canon and Nikon, while the mirrorless market, if we don't count the small players, is shared between:

- Sony
- Fuji
- Olympus
- Panasonic
- Canon

Roughly speaking, that means that even an optimistic forecast would give Nikon a mirrorless market share sized only a 5th of their DSLR market share, numbers not percentages. Even if they launch a few mirrorless cameras and even if they can fight their way up to a 20-30% share, there's no way they'll close down or give away their DSLR business in many years still. Why would they do that?

Hi,
I believe we both agree that technological change is not linear. Basically, it is governed by a feedback loop. As one gets into diminishing returns, progress becomes more and more expensive and leading technologies get the lion's share of the investment, pushing them ahead thus the market invest more in them.

Mirrorless has a series of advantages, in particular as pixel count grows, video becomes more important, etc:
1. Aligning the autofocus system with the sensor with enough precision to exploit the sensor is becoming more complex.
2. Mechanical assembly requires specialized personnel or you exacerbate problem 1.
3. Have you seen Nikon's QA record? mechanical issues can't be solved by a firmware update.
4. Moving parts, mirror slap, interference with video all are part of the DSLR.
5. An electronic viewfinder can use gain, so you can compose better in the dark. In particular, if you are older.
6. Mirrorless construction can be automated more easily.
7. Have you seen the rate at which Sony can innovate? A mirrorless camera is a consumer product. You don't have to build the full camera, you can update when one component do if you want.
8. Mindshare is shifting. This is very important.
9. The key idea of the DSLR was: "what you see is what you get". Today mirrorless is closer to that moto.
10. As technology progresses the electronic viewfinder problems with delays, refresh rates or color will be solved

I am not sure the D850 will be the last flagship DSLR. In fact, I am convinced that Nikon and Canon will have a next generation DSLR (at least for the sports one, for Nikon I am talking about a D5s). But after the A9 they know they need to react. The Nikon 1 was so much ahead of it's time that Nikon could have dominated the mirrorless market if they were not trying to protect DSLR (back then the moto was the mirrorless was smaller so maybe they did not get the change memo).

I still remember the first time I used the H4D with the 100mm f2.2, it mas magical, but the data analysis points that the future is the electronic viewfinder.

Note: Nikon may never go into mirrorless, they are willing to go small (downsize) that will be the a path to do it.

Best regards,

 

[ptomsu]

I am really interested to see where all of these ideas have evolved in 2 - 3 years from now ...

My feeling is that mirrorless will have won the photography world

 

[AlexLF]

In the meantime - https://www.dpreview.com/articles/2311195442/have-your-say-2017-best-product-winners?slide=4

 

[Jorgen Udvang]

After using mirrorless with EVF for 8 years as well, I have seen huge improvement in EVF technology and I guess the current Panasonic G9 and Sony A9, A7rIII together with the Leica SL mark the pinnacle of current EVF evolution.

pin·na·cle
ˈpinək(ə)l/
noun
noun: pinnacle; plural noun: pinnacles

1.
the most successful point; the culmination.
"he had reached the pinnacle of his career"

For large corporations, "pinnacle" is something to be avoided at any price. If they reach that, what on earth are they going to sell to you next year then?

There will be the Panasonic G11 and Sony A9 II and A7r IV and SL3 with viewfonders that render 10 zillion colours at 8K resolution with a response time faster than a nuclear Tesla. And this time around, it will be aaaaalmost as natural as an optical viewfinder, never mind the fact that making a dark room look bright isn't really natural. And those models will be the last cameras you need to buy...... until 18 months later when the G15, A9 III, A7 V and SL4 will be out with their terrabit resolution and organic, backlit turbo booster viewfinders plus AI and a sensor that can feel the variations of your heartbeat and your dopamin production, knowing when the composition is optimal and it goes "beep" and pushes the shutter... and so on and so forth.

All this to replace a few pieces of glass and a mirror that flips up and down. Did anybody read City by Clifford Simak?

 

[ptomsu]

There will be the Panasonic G11 and Sony A9 II and A7r IV and SL3 with viewfonders that render 10 zillion colours at 8K resolution with a response time faster than a nuclear Tesla. And this time around, it will be aaaaalmost as natural as an optical viewfinder, never mind the fact that making a dark room look bright isn't really natural. And those models will be the last cameras you need to buy...... until 18 months later when the G15, A9 III, A7 V and SL4 will be out with their terrabit resolution and organic, backlit turbo booster viewfinders plus AI and a sensor that can feel the variations of your heartbeat and your dopamin production, knowing when the composition is optimal and it goes "beep" and pushes the shutter... and so on and so forth.

All this to replace a few pieces of glass and a mirror that flips up and down. Did anybody read City by Clifford Simak?

But it keeps the industry moving :grin:

Why do we need the Internet, Datacenter or Cloud :argue:

 

[iiiNelson]

pin·na·cle
ˈpinək(ə)l/
noun
noun: pinnacle; plural noun: pinnacles

1.
the most successful point; the culmination.
"he had reached the pinnacle of his career"

For large corporations, "pinnacle" is something to be avoided at any price. If they reach that, what on earth are they going to sell to you next year then?

There will be the Panasonic G11 and Sony A9 II and A7r IV and SL3 with viewfonders that render 10 zillion colours at 8K resolution with a response time faster than a nuclear Tesla. And this time around, it will be aaaaalmost as natural as an optical viewfinder, never mind the fact that making a dark room look bright isn't really natural. And those models will be the last cameras you need to buy...... until 18 months later when the G15, A9 III, A7 V and SL4 will be out with their terrabit resolution and organic, backlit turbo booster viewfinders plus AI and a sensor that can feel the variations of your heartbeat and your dopamin production, knowing when the composition is optimal and it goes "beep" and pushes the shutter... and so on and so forth.

All this to replace a few pieces of glass and a mirror that flips up and down. Did anybody read City by Clifford Simak?

I think the release cycle of Mirrorless cameras is greatly exaggerated. Lower end models are released yearly but the higher end model release schedule is more comparable to the release cycle for the DSLR counterparts.

A big reason for that is the development and speed of development for mirrorless cameras compared to DSLR’s. There was a time in the 1950-80’s were SLR’s were being released regularly with the development of autofocusing systems, autoloading film carriages, program modes, etc. The difference is that targeted marketing wasn’t as pronounced as it is now on social media, websites, and pop-ups. Targeted marketing back then was picking up a photography magazine or Christmas catalog and seeing an advertisement. Back then a “better sensor” only meant a better roll of film and/or a better lens and not a new and updated body... or firmware update.

On the subject of development cycles, we we are nearing 3 years since the release of the A7II and will be there next month in late February. There was about 2.5 years between the A7RII and the A7RIII (but there was 19 months between the original A7R and the A7RII.) Panasonic placed about 2 years or so between the GH4 and GH5. Olympus and Fujifilm had about 3 years between their higher end models. Leica does about 2.5-4 years as well.

The point is that the mirrorless development cycle is slowing and that’s due to technological maturation. Autofocus in the premium mirrorless cameras is as good and in some cases better than what is currently in DLSR’s. Tracking is at a point to where it’s good enough for most of the actual needs of non-specialized photographers. Buffer sizes are getting larger. We are at a point to where the better EVF’s currently on the market are good enough for most and OVF’s are purely a subjective preference decision for most that choose them. There are multiple options now for off camera flash setups from both European and Asian lighting manufacturers. Image quality is a push as the sensors are largely the same and mirrorless camera native lens lineups (outside highly specialized lens types like tilt shift or extreme lowlight capable telephoto lenses) rival the best of the most established DSLR brands... and as an alternative they can be adapted if needed.

I dont think DSLR will ever really die (until maybe the hardcore DSLR only people die off) but I do believe that there will be a time where we see a transition from most people shooting DSLR’s to mirrorless and Smartphones like when more people started shooting SLR’s and dropped their rangefinders to do so. Believe it or not (and I’m not in this camp) but many people with mirrorless shoot solely with the LCD on the back unless it’s too bright outside to see it. We’ve all seen the effect of mirrorless cameras on DSLR bodies as they’ve since begin to implement articulating/tilting screens on higher end bodies now, as well as, touch screens to focus the camera so even if Canon/Nikon deny the impact of mirrorless we all see the effect it has on how the industry is reshaping itself.

Now what I can see (as mirrorless medium format dips in price, matures with improved AF, and 35mm based companies releases cameras like the A7RIII or the D850) is making the D5/1D a $500-1000 premium over the D850/5D (and in line with the A9) to capitalize on the specialized features those cameras have. In reality though (at least on paper) there really isn’t any type of job that the A7RIII or D850 shouldn’t be able to accomplish no matter what you shoot. There just aren’t really any serious weaknesses of either camera.

 

[Jorgen Udvang]

I don't think Nikon plans to close down DSLR production anytime soon:

https://www.dpreview.com/news/12320...fl-ed-vr-lens-features-built-in-teleconverter

 

[k-hawinkler]

Aren't there still new IBM mainframes for sale? :facesmack:
Nikon will operate similarly, why not as long as there is demand? :thumbs:
Here is the $12,000+ lens
https://www.dpreview.com/news/12320...lt-in-teleconverter?ref_=pe_1674010_132618830
for your D850! :bugeyes:

 

[Jorgen Udvang]

Aren't there still new IBM mainframes for sale? :facesmack:

Yup, there are. They are called Z nowadays. I guess they ran out of numbers when they reached 390. I worked on a couple of 370/155 for years back in the day. That was 40 years ago. Fascinating machinery then, and I'm sure it still is

I'll upgrade to the D990 when the time comes

 

[k-hawinkler]

IBM 7040 was the first machine I ran on! :shocked:

 

[Frankly]

As for mirrorless developing new products quickly, I seem to remember Panasonic and Olympus repackaging essentially the same 16-mp sensor in their countless mirrorless offerings for how many years? 6 or 8 at least.

It's only Sony, the chip maker, really doing anything quickly. But with tiny buttons and lousy UI.

As for the cameras, we're still using the same workflow Kodak invented and developed 25 years ago. All the camera manufacturers (and Adobe) have done is layer more and more filigree on top.

The promise of mirrorless was that it would simplify manufacturing and drive down cost. Yet to stay in business the manufacturers push higher margin, more expensive cameras. Hmm....

Frankly I think sooner or later the Chinese will do an open source or phone controlled multi lens mirrorless camera that can calculate higher resolutions, control focus through stacking, etc. that blows all the established players out of the water. Let me choose my own interface from a choice from the best user interface designers, that alone would sell me.

Imagine an iPhone type camera with a lot more horsepower behind it. I'm surprised Apple hasn't done it, a professional quality iCamera that everyone would have to have.

Until then it's the D8xx series for me.

 

[jduncan]

Yup, there are. They are called Z nowadays. I guess they ran out of numbers when they reached 390. I worked on a couple of 370/155 for years back in the day. That was 40 years ago. Fascinating machinery then, and I'm sure it still is

I'll upgrade to the D990 when the time comes

Thanks the actitude!!!
I belive the mainframe model could be interesting, eventually moving to a rental model?
(don't stress the analogy?).

I guess the new lens is magical, with such a high premium over the alternatives, including Nikon's own 200-500 f5.6 VR I was expecting that they will match Canon's marquet price.

Best regards,

 

[ptomsu]

I don't think Nikon plans to close down DSLR production anytime soon:

https://www.dpreview.com/news/12320...fl-ed-vr-lens-features-built-in-teleconverter

While you may be right, I think these latest releases of Nikon lenses like the 180-400 and the 105 just happened because they were already planned and scheduled for years and just happened to be released last year and this year. For me this is just another sign of not understanding what the market really needs today, but development of these lenses already happened 4-5 years ago, so they could not stop it anymore.

I am still a firm believer that Nikon should rather have concentrated their workforce on products they need to survive.

And I am not saying that I do not like these new products, just that they come at at totally wrong time and far too late (think of the Canon 100-400 with 1.4TC that was already released years ago!!!)

 

[Frankly]

While you may be right, I think these latest releases of Nikon lenses like the 180-400 and the 105 just happened because they were already planned and scheduled for years and just happened to be released last year and this year. For me this is just another sign of not understanding what the market really needs today, but development of these lenses already happened 4-5 years ago, so they could not stop it anymore.

I am still a firm believer that Nikon should rather have concentrated their workforce on products they need to survive.

And I am not saying that I do not like these new products, just that they come at at totally wrong time and far too late (think of the Canon 100-400 with 1.4TC that was already released years ago!!!)

You can really see how much Canon is in Nikon management's head and vice-versa.

 

[ptomsu]

You can really see how much Canon is in Nikon management's head and vice-versa.

This is maybe why they don't see their real completion!

 

[jduncan]

This is maybe why they don't see their real completion!

Hi,

That's a good inside, but Canon is trying to do unique stuff like the 85mm f1.4 IS. It's not the best image quality, but it a very good lens with IS and f1.4
Even so, you may be right: Canon insists on not adding a decent 4K coded to their DSLRs. They could be totally crushing the market., but who knows? maybe they are making a comparable amount of the C200 and family. Nikon needs to innovate, not just do a fantastic implementation of the same tried and true idea (D850). On the other hand, Nikon says that they are preparing to downsize. Maybe they believe that there is no way to grow in this market so: why bother?

It's hard to know, but with modern cameras, you will be pressed to justify the new lens, unless it has "magical" image quality or an epic autofocus or something that makes it so much better.

 

[Frankly]

Hi,

....It's hard to know, but with modern cameras, you will be pressed to justify the new lens, unless it has "magical" image quality or an epic autofocus or something that makes it so much better.

I don't know about this, I keep being pleasantly surprised by how much better the newer Nikon, Zeiss and Sigma lenses are over the older versions I had been using. The list of "great older lenses" that still hold up with modern cameras is dwindling. I have a early 2000s Nikon 300/2.8 AFSII that continues to impress me and my hunch is that I give nothing up to the latest version except VR and coatings. But the new 28/1.4e runs circles around my old 35/1.4g and the 105/1.4e is clearly better than the 85/1.4g I used to use. And those were both amazing lenses with the D700, I was in heaven (other than image size).

Now that we can pixel peep the lens improvements matter. How we ever produced images with those Coke bottles back in the film days baffles me ;-p

 

[jduncan]

I don't know about this, I keep being pleasantly surprised by how much better the newer Nikon, Zeiss and Sigma lenses are over the older versions I had been using. The list of "great older lenses" that still hold up with modern cameras is dwindling. I have a early 2000s Nikon 300/2.8 AFSII that continues to impress me and my hunch is that I give nothing up to the latest version except VR and coatings. But the new 28/1.4e runs circles around my old 35/1.4g and the 105/1.4e is clearly better than the 85/1.4g I used to use.

Now that we can pixel peep the lens improvements matter. How we ever produced images with those Coke bottles back in the film days baffles me ;-p

I agree, in particular in technical terms. Some olden lenses have this "Rendering" that guives them personality. Zeiss otus and the Zeis 135mm have both technical excelence and a look. But I was talking about modern lenses like the Nikon 200-500mm or the Tamron 150-600 G2 or the sports version from Sigma. You know what? at that Price even the 500mm f4.0 or the amzing 400mm f2.8 VR FL with telecomverters cost lest. And any one that has used the 400mm knows the image quality you get from objects that do not fill the frame, and autofcus is quite something.

That is the kind of money we are talking about. In the olden times the 200-400mm was about half one of the super teles, and it had no pairs from anyone, not even Canon.

When I mention "modern cameras" I was talking about high iso, autofocus and resolution that expand reach.

Best regards.

 

[Jack]

Hmmm, I dunno. Photographers like HCB, Ansel Adams and Galen Rowell all did pretty outstanding work with "Coke bottle" glass in their lenses and inferior output materials...

Better equipment technically does not translate to better vision artistically...

 

[ptomsu]

I actually like coke bottle glass very much, some of my greatest work has be done with that