jonoslack
Active member
May be bigger, but it's a whole lot faster!
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Photokina what will it bring.
- Thread starter Guy Mancuso
- Start date
Guy Mancuso
Administrator, Instructor
You may see Nikon announce as early as next week , they always pre announce than Canon follows and tries to take there thunder. Seen it time and time again. Frankly leica should announce whatever they have , create a buzz. If Leica comes out with just a couple lenses than there just toast. They NEED something really big and with a promise to R10 maybe later is not going to cut it for me. I want product TODAY not a year from now
jonoslack
Active member
HI Guy
I don't think there is any 'may' about it, some of the official UK dealers are already 'advertising' the D700 announcement for tomorrow.
Whether there will be anything else of interest is less clear
As for the R10 - I still completely fail to see how a company the size of Leica can hope to produce a product that's competitive with the big dSLR companies. Let's face it, if you have a dSLR, then you want it as an efficient and effective back up for your MF gear - the D700 (assuming its a D3 in a D300 body) is already that animal, and it's going to be 1/3 price of anything leica can manage . . . and that's before the lenses!
Stuart Richardson
Active member
Well Jono,
I think they can compete in a limited segment of the market. They may be 3rd tier players in the technological department, but they are among the leaders in optical design. Since only Canon (and Sony) make their own sensors, it is possible for Leica to compete if they focus on their strengths -- absolute optical quality and straightforward operation. I think that now more than ever they have a chance -- as sensors increase in size and quality, the optics are the real key to the best performance.
I don't see Leica competing in the D3 based market of ISO 25,000, Live view and 9fps, but if they make a full frame or larger sensor, 16-22 MP, 16bit in an evolutionarily designed R8/9 body-style and tack some auto-focus R lenses on it, I think they will find a client base. They have the optics down, and they have firmware help from Jenoptik, they can look to panasonic for help with AF, stabilization and other technology...they might be able to do it. It will be expensive though...but at 5 grand for the D3 and 8 for the 1DsMkIII, those are not cheap either!
I think they can compete in a limited segment of the market. They may be 3rd tier players in the technological department, but they are among the leaders in optical design. Since only Canon (and Sony) make their own sensors, it is possible for Leica to compete if they focus on their strengths -- absolute optical quality and straightforward operation. I think that now more than ever they have a chance -- as sensors increase in size and quality, the optics are the real key to the best performance.
I don't see Leica competing in the D3 based market of ISO 25,000, Live view and 9fps, but if they make a full frame or larger sensor, 16-22 MP, 16bit in an evolutionarily designed R8/9 body-style and tack some auto-focus R lenses on it, I think they will find a client base. They have the optics down, and they have firmware help from Jenoptik, they can look to panasonic for help with AF, stabilization and other technology...they might be able to do it. It will be expensive though...but at 5 grand for the D3 and 8 for the 1DsMkIII, those are not cheap either!
jonoslack
Active member
Hi Stuart
I admire your optimism.
If Nikon and Canon have to charge 5 grand and 8 grand respectively for full frame sensors, I can't see Leica managing it for a price this side of a hasselblad! Not just on the economics of scale, but having to build it in Europe rather than the far east.
If it's going to be manual focus, then it has the disadvantages of many MF systems . . . without the advantages, and if it's going to be the same price. . . if it's going to be autofocus, then they need new lenses, and they're likely to be ditching their (limited) existing userbase).
I happily put up with the shortcomings of the M8, because there isn't a real alternative, and because I really like shooting with a rangefinder. The idea of buying an R10 at 10 grand (or thereabouts) and then having to buy a bunch of manual focus lenses (I KNOW they're wonderful, but if I want hassle and wonderful lenses, then the M8 does it for me) is pretty far down my list of priorities - especially when I can buy a Mamiya with a ZD back for less.
I don't even think there's much of a loyal userbase - there are a few around here that still have some lenses, but most have sold them . . . . and if the folk around here have sold them?
Stuart Richardson
Active member
I am not so sure that it will be 10 grand. It may be more than a ZD back (so is a 1DsMkIII), but to be honest, a ZD back is limited in some major ways (unusable above ISO 200 for example). I think we will see pricing in line with the top of the line Canon. Leica surely realizes that there is a delicate line to walk between MF digital and 35mm.
I think that the sensor is not really the main cost in cameras like the D3 and 1DsMkIII. Yes, it is a major component, but look at the 5D...that is full-frame in a sub 3000 camera. Much of the cost in the pro series DSLR's goes into extremely sophisticated shutter and mirror assemblies that can shoot over 7 or 8 fps, in their auto-focus and metering systems, weather sealing, live view,large LCD's, super speed image pipelines and so on.
I think that if Leica buys a full frame chip and puts it in a more streamlined camera (slower fps, no live view, not 8 million custom functions), they can make it at a more competitive price. The lenses will remain expensive, but Leica DOES make some more reasonable lenses like the summarits, 28 elmarit asph, and the 35-70/4 R. I am not saying it is going to be easy, but I do think it is possible.
As for the user base...well, I don't think you can count on loyalty from any user base. Look how many people dumped Canon for the D3...if you build a camera that correctly addresses the needs of photographers, then people will buy it.
I think that the sensor is not really the main cost in cameras like the D3 and 1DsMkIII. Yes, it is a major component, but look at the 5D...that is full-frame in a sub 3000 camera. Much of the cost in the pro series DSLR's goes into extremely sophisticated shutter and mirror assemblies that can shoot over 7 or 8 fps, in their auto-focus and metering systems, weather sealing, live view,large LCD's, super speed image pipelines and so on.
I think that if Leica buys a full frame chip and puts it in a more streamlined camera (slower fps, no live view, not 8 million custom functions), they can make it at a more competitive price. The lenses will remain expensive, but Leica DOES make some more reasonable lenses like the summarits, 28 elmarit asph, and the 35-70/4 R. I am not saying it is going to be easy, but I do think it is possible.
As for the user base...well, I don't think you can count on loyalty from any user base. Look how many people dumped Canon for the D3...if you build a camera that correctly addresses the needs of photographers, then people will buy it.
jonoslack
Active member
HI there
Well, I hope you're right - and if they bring out the perfect, slow, splendid 22mp camera, then I might be tempted too.
It's in all of our interest to see Leica succeed, and if I seem like a grumpy old man, it's certainly not because I want to see them fail.
Me? I'd like a FF 24mp M9 (don't care about speed, high ISO or sophisticated electronics, just good resolution and good IQ).
Well, I hope you're right - and if they bring out the perfect, slow, splendid 22mp camera, then I might be tempted too.
It's in all of our interest to see Leica succeed, and if I seem like a grumpy old man, it's certainly not because I want to see them fail.
Me? I'd like a FF 24mp M9 (don't care about speed, high ISO or sophisticated electronics, just good resolution and good IQ).
Guy Mancuso
Administrator, Instructor
Stuart your last line pretty much says it all. You cannot depend on loyal customers anymore to follow you . When Nikon , Canon and others are putting out good product people will switch on a dime. The D3 is just one great example. Many Leica and canon folks went crazy to get into the D3 and for good reason. Just me for example , no matter how I do the math the Phase MF system i just bought still is less than I paid for my M8 system and still less than my DMR system when I had that one. Go buy a Nikon D3 system today and it maybe even less than half than what leica system is on the market. We all love our Leica's no question but let's face it money is money and right now come September we still will be in the economic dog house we are in today and maybe even worse.
Steen
Senior Subscriber Member
:lecture: I predict that Nikon will pick up the Pentax idea about publishing a road map for lenses to come.
It will make it easier for the customers to make decisions based on informations rather than frustrations.
And if Nikon chooses not to do so, the only reason will be that they don't want to hurt Zeiss ZF and Voigtländer SL-II sales.
After that other companies will follow, realizing that it is actually an advantage to be informative towards the customer base, and the future will be bright :angel:
http://pentaxlife.com/pentax-lens-roadmap-updated
It will make it easier for the customers to make decisions based on informations rather than frustrations.
And if Nikon chooses not to do so, the only reason will be that they don't want to hurt Zeiss ZF and Voigtländer SL-II sales.
After that other companies will follow, realizing that it is actually an advantage to be informative towards the customer base, and the future will be bright :angel:
http://pentaxlife.com/pentax-lens-roadmap-updated
Guy Mancuso
Administrator, Instructor
Not surprised at all Billy , they actually have to after Nikon announced the D700. They been playing this game forever and trying to out do each other the same week on announcements. Been pretty funny over the years watching them battle it out. I would bet a dozen donuts first announcement the 5d replacement.
Guy,
The bar has been set a bit higher for the 5D replacement by this new Nikon D700. That is what the 5D should have been from the start, or at least have had that much upgraded by now. The 5D is still a very good camera, and produces some great image files, but it is pretty far behind the tech at this point, and lacks the horsepower and capabilities for more demanding pro use. I have looked at it repeatedly as an option in my kit, but just cannot get there based on what I need and what it just cannot deliver for me compared to the 1-series stuff I shoot now.
Only thing I would like to see more than a 5D upgrade that is at or above this D700 is a blended 1-series body at 24MP FF and 12MP at the 1.3x crop, with 10fps speed and all the other stuff. That is needed in the Canon line-up in my mind, but they just seem unable to put it out there. I would love that kind of surprise :clap:
LJ
Hank Graber
New member
I don't see how tiny Leica can play in the DSLR space against Canon-Nikon-Sony. They just don't have the resources and economies of scale. If they want to satisfy the small base of existing R lens owners slap a red dot and R mount on a proven functioning camera from Pentax or Nikon. Or just offer a pricey Leica service to swap mounts of R lenses to the nikon or other mount without the need for stop down metering if thats possible and do as Zeiss is doing. Even much larger Zeiss has not attempted to jump into the camera making business again, instead partnering with Sony to move high end lenses for DSLR's.
There has been talk about a larger then 35mm sensor in the R10. Leica might have a shot in the much smaller MF market. It's more of a level playing field for Leica with small competitors like Sinar and Phase but that would price it out of the range of a lot of R users (and require an expensive adapter).
Leica is still dependent on the M product line as it's flagship for the foreseeable future. No one seems interested in developing a competing DRF for now so they better make hay while they can. I'd like to see an M9 based on the current M8, a manufactured by Cosina entry level M and a PanaLeica GRD competitor (a digital CM). They need to keep the flag flying and the buzz going in the RF market, in this digital age users have very short attention spans.
There has been talk about a larger then 35mm sensor in the R10. Leica might have a shot in the much smaller MF market. It's more of a level playing field for Leica with small competitors like Sinar and Phase but that would price it out of the range of a lot of R users (and require an expensive adapter).
Leica is still dependent on the M product line as it's flagship for the foreseeable future. No one seems interested in developing a competing DRF for now so they better make hay while they can. I'd like to see an M9 based on the current M8, a manufactured by Cosina entry level M and a PanaLeica GRD competitor (a digital CM). They need to keep the flag flying and the buzz going in the RF market, in this digital age users have very short attention spans.
Guy Mancuso
Administrator, Instructor
Have to agree Hank
Hank,
Your assessment and comments are spot on. Leica has conquered a niche the few others even care about with the RF. On the DSLR side, they could field something very interesting more toward the MF camp, but that would require some major ground up design efforts and a longer range plan to play. Not seeing that capability with them. Hope to be wrong there, but we shall soon know.
Michael Reichmann had some interesting comments around the shake-up at Nikon that led to their coming back into the competitive game, and Leica could learn some lessons there, despite being smaller in size. A lot has to do with thinking long term, but responding quickly to shorter term changes in the market, and how to take advantage of momentum once you get rolling, which is kind of what Nikon is doing now. Leica had that chance with the DMR and again with the M8, but did not do much to get things rolling after they were introduced.
So, it will be interesting to see what Leica brings or promises at Photokina. The bar has been set high for them to stay in the game also, and if they do switch games, like fielding a MF camera, they will still feel the competitive pressures. Hassy, Leaf, Phase, Sinar, etc., are not resting on any laurels themselves, but are pushing things forward.
Your suggestion about just selling glass for some of these higher end kits has been discussed a few times, and I am not sure if Leica is really up to that task either. I really want to see them stay in the game, but game seems to move faster than they do right now.
LJ
Your assessment and comments are spot on. Leica has conquered a niche the few others even care about with the RF. On the DSLR side, they could field something very interesting more toward the MF camp, but that would require some major ground up design efforts and a longer range plan to play. Not seeing that capability with them. Hope to be wrong there, but we shall soon know.
Michael Reichmann had some interesting comments around the shake-up at Nikon that led to their coming back into the competitive game, and Leica could learn some lessons there, despite being smaller in size. A lot has to do with thinking long term, but responding quickly to shorter term changes in the market, and how to take advantage of momentum once you get rolling, which is kind of what Nikon is doing now. Leica had that chance with the DMR and again with the M8, but did not do much to get things rolling after they were introduced.
So, it will be interesting to see what Leica brings or promises at Photokina. The bar has been set high for them to stay in the game also, and if they do switch games, like fielding a MF camera, they will still feel the competitive pressures. Hassy, Leaf, Phase, Sinar, etc., are not resting on any laurels themselves, but are pushing things forward.
Your suggestion about just selling glass for some of these higher end kits has been discussed a few times, and I am not sure if Leica is really up to that task either. I really want to see them stay in the game, but game seems to move faster than they do right now.
LJ
woodyspedden
New member
Problem may be the size of the image circle from the R lenses. Unless you can price yourself very competitively against the current MF players, an R10 with a 25Mpx sensor at say 7 microns may be a tough sell. I think it would have to be priced in the neighborhood of $13K to get any acceptance. Otherwise it is up against the Hassy CFV, Mamiya ZD, and (at more money) the P25+, Hassy CF 22 etc. Breaking into the MF market is also not an easy positioning game. And given that, to be competitive you would have to offer, and get people to buy, a new round of auto focus lenses.
It should be interesting to see the outcome of all this furor.
I am hoping for a Digital CM or CL where I think the compatibility with M lenses could create a very good entry for budding Leica enthusiasts who currently can't afford to get into the >$5k body game.
Woody
ChrisDauer
Workshop Member
So much for that Idea
Steen
Senior Subscriber Member
August 5 -- The Nikon D80 replacement will be called the D90, says Thom Hogan here and adds some specifications.
If you can't find it under the date August 5 on the front page, look for the date in the Archived Front Page News links at the bottom of the front page.
Thom Hogan also has a paragraph about EVIL on the Horizon
Aug 3 -- Olympus and Panasonic have announced the Micro 4/3 initiative, which essentially marks the first EVIL (Electronic Viewfinder Interchangeable Lens) SLR camera.
If you can't find it under the date August 5 on the front page, look for the date in the Archived Front Page News links at the bottom of the front page.
Thom Hogan also has a paragraph about EVIL on the Horizon
Aug 3 -- Olympus and Panasonic have announced the Micro 4/3 initiative, which essentially marks the first EVIL (Electronic Viewfinder Interchangeable Lens) SLR camera.
Stuart Richardson
Active member
With the D90 it looks like we get another slow, wide to telephoto zoom. Horray! (Ironic). I get that most consumers just want zooms, but PLEASE NIKON, GIVE US SOME AFS PRIMES! Most of the optical designs of the Nikon prime lenses are 20-30 years old...they could really use updating.