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Thread: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

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    Deceased, but remembered fondly here... johnastovall's Avatar
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    Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    This is starting to look very serious.

    Swine Flu Emergency Caused By New Variant of Old Bug

    "The virus has already evaded the first line of defense that health officials had hoped to use against a pandemic. International flu experts preparing for a pandemic had planned to contain the initial outbreak of a new, lethal strain of flu. The swine flu virus has already spread so far in Mexico and the U.S. that the containment strategy is out of the question, said Anne Schuchat, interim deputy director for science and public health programs at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Atlanta-based U.S. agency.

    “We don’t think we can contain the spread of this virus,” she said yesterday in a conference call with reporters. "

    Hong Kong's reaction.

    "Dr. York Chow, Hong Kong’s secretary for health and food, asked residents to watch the news for reports of which states in the United States have outbreaks and discouraged travel to these states, but reserved his strongest warning for travel to Mexico. “Do not travel to Mexico unless it is absolutely necessary,” he said."

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    Administrator, Instructor Guy Mancuso's Avatar
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Folks should really read the link John posted but I did grab a excerpt from it

    Health officials in the U.S. are asking both doctors and patients to be on the lookout for suspicious cases of flu. The lung virus normally causes symptoms such as coughing and sneezing, and can also bring on muscle and joint aches, headaches, and even diarrhea and vomiting, according to the CDC.

    At a time when scientists can tailor drugs to match a patient’s genetic profile and people live longer than ever, the flu, first described by Hippocrates 2,400 years ago, still has the power to make millions bed-bound for a week and kill the very young, the elderly and those weakened by chronic disease.

    The CDC estimates the germ is linked to more than 30,000 U.S. deaths annually.

    In most cases, adults can resist succumbing to flu viruses that are identical or very similar to those they’ve been exposed to before. “New” viruses that the human immune system hasn’t seen earlier are the most dangerous, because they can overwhelm the body’s defenses.
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  3. #3
    Oxide Blu
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Quote Originally Posted by Guy Mancuso View Post

    ... the flu, first described by Hippocrates 2,400 years ago, still has the power to make millions bed-bound for a week and kill the very young, the elderly and those weakened by chronic disease.

    That is not this flu. This is an N1H1 swine flu with Type A symptoms. It really is no big deal -- yet. Those greatest at risk are young adults with healthy immune systems, the opposite if what we normally consider most likely to be flu vicitims. This flu causes a disproportional immune response leading to the victim's immune system attacking their own body's tissue (organs). It is not the virus that kills; it is the person's own immune system that kills them. That is why this flu has everyone's attention. This critter is amazingly similar to the N1H1 swine flu of 1918 (Spanish flu) that killed around 40-million people and caused an early end to WWI due to troop deaths from the flu. It worked the exact same way.

    The 1918 Spanish flu was 2 waves - first wave is just like this swine flu, mild symptoms, a few people die, most people don't, who cares. Then the virus mutates from a 'swine' virus into a more 'people friendly' virus and comes back on a second wave that kills millions of people.

    This current N1H1 swine flu is on its first wave. All it needs is one little, simple, common mutation to make it people friendly, and we will be in one hell of a lot of trouble when it comes back. The more people it infects now, the greater the opportunity for that mutation to happen.



    ETA: This flu is now in New Zealand, too.

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    Subscriber Member Georg Baumann's Avatar
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    http://www.who.int/en/

    Good source to check up on.

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    There is a cure for it; as of yesterday 80 people had died of it but it was because when a healthy joung person has a flue he or she usually just hangs on untill it pases. Now that there is noice, peole won't wait to go to the doctor.

    School has been cancelled for obout 6 States in Mexico so far so most people are now awhare of it.

  6. #6
    Oxide Blu
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    _ Deaths: 86, all in Mexico.

    _ Confirmed cases: About 1,400 in Mexico; 20 in U.S.; 4 in Canada.

    _ Suspected cases: 10 in New Zealand; 4 in France; 3 in Spain; 1 in Israel.

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...ovTCAD97QBAJG1

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Quote Originally Posted by Oxide Blu View Post
    _ Deaths: 86, all in Mexico.

    _ Confirmed cases: About 1,400 in Mexico; 20 in U.S.; 4 in Canada.

    _ Suspected cases: 10 in New Zealand; 4 in France; 3 in Spain; 1 in Israel.

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...ovTCAD97QBAJG1
    It was on TV last night about the Kiwis. Was unconfirmed, and they said if it was same they'd get some vaccine flu injection...
    Last edited by waynelake; 26th April 2009 at 14:03.

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    Deceased, but remembered fondly here... johnastovall's Avatar
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    They just closed a complete school district here in Texas where there are 3 confirmed cases in a high school.

    With the new emergency declaration getting back into the U.S. from Mexico is going to start getting harder.

    I know a wedding photographer who is booked to shoot a wedding in Cancun and is having some second thoughts about going because she might find air travel delayed to the point she couldn't get back for other weddings scheduled.

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    In NZ:
    22 students + 3 teachers went to Mexico.
    10 have Influenza A, waiting upon swine tests from Melbourne Australia.
    The virus is a new strain that can spread between birds/people/swine...
    People being given "Tamiflu" to help lessen symptoms/effects.
    NZ officials saying Tamiflu will be used + quarantine people...

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Tracking map of suspected cases here:

    http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UT...,25.488281&z=5
    Monochrome: http://mochro.com

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    I am sooooo looking forward to flying to SF tonight, round trip to Seattle tomorrow and LA on Friday. NOT!

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    Subscriber Member Georg Baumann's Avatar
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Personally, I would not travel at level 4 Terry.

    Looks like it is getting more serious. WHO raised Alert Level from 3-4, meaning sustained human to human transmission is happening. Level 5 is pandemic.

    Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.
    Sitting for hours in an essentially closed system, breathing the air of your fellow travelers, and who the Hell knows where they just transfered from, would not be a good idea in my opinion.

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    Deceased, but remembered fondly here... johnastovall's Avatar
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    A friend who live in South Texas is very concerned and has taken his 3 girls out of public school. He and his wife had already stopped going to visit relatives in Mexico due to the Narcos and now this.

    BBC has very interesting comments from inside Mexico.

    Readers in the areas affected by the swine flu outbreak have been sending their accounts to the BBC since the first cases were reported.


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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    I flew to and throughout southeast Asia during the SARS outbreak and felt quite comfortable (on the often nearly empty planes) – even flying with people hacking and wheezing nearby. It's important to be careful, but in most cases it's not necessary to over-think it IMO.

    BTW Terry, you may like to keep the air vent streaming cool air on you during your flight. I can't speak to the design of all commercial aircraft, but I was told by a Boeing engineer that the air that comes from the overhead vents (that the passenger controls) is mixed with more outside air, as opposed to the air which is simply recirculated (through the filters) and uses different mix ratios. The pilot controls the mix of cabin air as a means of controlling fuel economy, but I was told that the vents give us more fresh air in the mix. I've heard this a few times while flying with aircraft guys, but can't vouch for the validity. Still, I keep mine open and haven't had so much as a cold in over five years. I fly trans-Pacific regularly and have for over 20 years.

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    Oxide Blu
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dale Allyn View Post

    BTW Terry, you may like to keep the air vent streaming cool air on you during your flight.
    Umm, Dale -- they quit putting those on airplanes I don't know how many years ago.

    The planes you fly on, do they make you help wind-up the big rubber band before you get on?

  16. #16
    Oxide Blu
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Quote Originally Posted by johnastovall View Post

    BBC has very interesting comments from inside Mexico.

    Yeah, well ... maybe take that with a grain of salt, if the BBC is reporting it.

    If it is bona-fide, it will be available or verifiable from other news outlet sources.

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Quote Originally Posted by Oxide Blu View Post
    Umm, Dale -- they quit putting those on airplanes I don't know how many years ago.

    The planes you fly on, do they make you help wind-up the big rubber band before you get on?
    I don't know how you travel, but I flew to Asia last month and will again in six weeks. Last month's trip again included a leg with an aircraft engineer seated next to me who repeated the remarks I made above. In fact, he was cold, added a blanket, and opened the vent. It seems to be "common knowledge" among the most frequent business travelers on these long flights, though that doesn't make it "fact".

    So... not sure how you're flying, but I'm just sharing my experiences. Maybe you have more useful info, and I'll gladly absorb it. But until I have new and accurate info conflicting this, I'll open my vents above seats 7-B or 7-C, 8-B or 8-C (lower deck), or all of row 15 (upper deck) on United's 747-400 (biz class); or seat 9-B on the 777 (also biz class cabin). All of these seats have the vents I mention, as does the rest of the entire section. Same goes for UA's regional jets with single-class service.

    Happy travels.
    Last edited by Dale Allyn; 27th April 2009 at 22:34.

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Thanks,
    I'm a very regular flyer and adjust the air vents whenever possible. Just got into SF time for an airborne dose and off to bed before leaving for rainy Seattle at 0 dark hundred.

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Dale -- thanks for the tip! it's very much appreciated!!!

    i usually keep those vents closed as they tend to dry out my eyes -- contact lens wearer who takes them off for most of the flight and i find my "naked" eyes are very delicate. but knowing that a greater mix of fresh air is in those vents, will help tremendously with my claustrophobia so i'm all there!

    Terry -- if you're in LaLaLand sometime in May (between the 7th-31st), give a holler! if i'm not stuck in jury duty, it would be lovely to see you

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    I commute to work (2500 mile commute), flew some 80 times last year, all on Boeing 737-800's, the latest version of the plane, they all had air vents thank G-d. I get very hot on flights.
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    Eisemann
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    I flew B727-MD80 aircraft for many years for a major carrier in the US. The cabin air in most transport category aircraft is maintained, at cruise altitude, at a pressure of approximately 5000 feet regardless of the plane's altitude and adjusted in descent to match the landing field altitude.

    This cabin air pressure is obtained by bleeding air from the compressor section of the engines and introducing it to the cabin after passing through temperature mixing pack valves (air cycle machines) where it is mixed with conditioned or cooler outside air. The pressure in the cabin is maintained by modulating outflow valves in the aircraft which open and close as required to keep cabin altitude constant. Simply speaking, there is little if any recirculation of air in the cabin and in fact there is a constant change of air as the outflow valves open and close. Clearly, the air is very dry as a result of being bled of the hot compressor section, but hardly stale.

    The eyeball outlets or Gasper Fans do nothing more than take cabin air in and blow it as a stream of air as directed. As such, directing the air stream to your face will possibly have a detrimental effect by forcing possibly infected air directly on mucus membranes which is how, I am led to believe, the disease is transmitted.
    Last edited by Eisemann; 28th April 2009 at 09:17.

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Very interesting info. Thank you. It makes sense, and still differs from what the Boeing engineer claimed, but context of his remarks may have been misunderstood (on my part). I had always assumed that the "eye-ball" vents did exactly as you say, until I had been told by more than one person in the field that the mixture is different. Obviously, the pressurization of the cabin must be maintained, which is why it confused me, but I'm not an aircraft engineer.

    It's interesting to me that it has been emphatically suggested to me on several occasions to leave the vents open for better air quality. Perhaps an urban legend then? Or perhaps some aircraft pass the forced "eye-ball vent" air back through filters so that the "legend" was supported there and then morphed. (?)

    As another note: on regional jets the eye-ball vents blow air of the same temperature as the cabin which would support Elsemann's comment, but on the long-haul flights (where I have been told this "legend") the air from the eye-ball vents is discernibly colder. I wonder if there are different systems on these different equipment, depending on application.

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    Oxide Blu
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dale Allyn View Post

    ... I'll open my vents above seats 7-B or 7-C, 8-B or 8-C (lower deck), or all of row 15 (upper deck) on United's 747-400 (biz class); or seat 9-B on the 777 (also biz class cabin). All of these seats have the vents I mention, as does the rest of the entire section. Same goes for UA's regional jets with single-class service.

    It may be the aircraft interior package. The planes I'm on (across the pacific, biz class) haven't had those air vents for quite some time. I also noticed the overhead storage is smaller -- a person with an isle seat can stand up if they lean slightly toward the isle -- nowhere to put those air vents, any air vent would be offset, would have to be blowing across 5-ft of open space.

    There is a lot of air circulation but it is through venting system the length of the cabin, under the windows. And it gets cold in there.

    I can't remember seeing those overhead vents on local aircraft either, but I couldn't say for sure.

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    Eisemann
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    From what I remember, the Gasper Fan system was designed to be used on the ground with one pack operation in hot weather for the purpose of increasing the already low airflow and make it slightly colder. I have noteced however that some operators will leave the gasper fan on until reaching 10,000 ft in climb and then switching it back on at 10,000 ft in descent. There is sufficient airflow coming through both packs when the aircraft is airborne and there is nothing to be gained by switching on the Gasper fan. Essentially, you will have gasper fan cooling available below 10,000 ft (aircraft altitude) as well as on the ramp (in warm weather).
    Last edited by Eisemann; 28th April 2009 at 10:56.

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    Oxide Blu
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Why not a picture.


    Note the only thing above the seats is a worthless light, one for each passenger. If you look between the seats you see another lamp, hi-intensity, on a black goose neck. That's what everyone uses.

    You can also see how the isle passenger can stand up and stretch. Anyone in the middle part of the plane can stand and stretch with their hands over their head. No way to blow air from the top down with eyeball vent thingies. You'd need a ladder to adjust them.


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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Sort of similar (in terms of height) in the UA equipment, though there are the vents, plus overhead lights which are slightly pivot-able, and the gooseneck reading lamps between the seats. Obviously just boils down to the different packages ordered.

    I've flown Thai Airways as well, though don't recall their setup. I've not used them in a while, and their equipment may have changed. Same for Cathay. And never flown JAL, though I do fly through Narita several times per year.

    Cheers.

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    i'll report back on Air France planes.... unfortunately, i travel cattle class usually.

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    All this talk about the ventilation system is very interesting, but you still have to get through two crowded airports so there will still be plenty of opportunities to catch a bug when traveling by air.
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Lars, I wish it was only two airports on my route. It's four for me. Ugh.

    So it's probably best to just remain healthy to keep them buggers away. (Or, as in my case, remain bitter so the bugs go screaming off to infect someone else.)



    Bitter Bob... errrr, I mean Dale

  30. #30
    Oxide Blu
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    This swine flu appears to be a rerun of the swine flu of 1918, so far. It only kills people with healthy immune systems. Actually, the virus doesn't do the killing, it triggers a disproportional immune system response and the victim's own immune system kills them by attacking healthy tissue. You want to have as unhealthy an immune system as you can.

    So, drink more scotch (lots more!), eat more junk food, get less sleep, you should be good to go. Well, at least that's my plan for a defense.


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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Quote Originally Posted by Oxide Blu View Post

    So, drink more scotch (lots more!), eat more junk food, get less sleep, you should be good to go. Well, at least that's my plan for a defense.

    Yes! these relates to my "defense" of being bitter. Bitterness as well as highly toxic (read B.A.C.) makes one a less attractive target.

    Perhaps we should open a clinic!

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Quote Originally Posted by Oxide Blu View Post
    This swine flu appears to be a rerun of the swine flu of 1918, so far. It only kills people with healthy immune systems. Actually, the virus doesn't do the killing, it triggers a disproportional immune system response and the victim's own immune system kills them by attacking healthy tissue. You want to have as unhealthy an immune system as you can.

    So, drink more scotch (lots more!), eat more junk food, get less sleep, you should be good to go. Well, at least that's my plan for a defense.

    Yes thats what I heard. Except for the scotch. Thats poison...
    Like 1918, kills healthy 20-40 year olds.
    1918 killed 20-120 million.
    Todays one is a combination of 4 viruses.
    Expert says doubts will turn out like 1918.
    Same person said theres been similar viruses since 1600s...
    1918 was very extreme...
    A Kiwi got it in Mexico for a few days, now Ok.

  33. #33
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    I like the way one doctor that is an expert on pandemics put it; you are in a forest, and two trees are on fire. Either the whole forest can burn down, or those two trees can burn just themselves out. You have a 50-50 chance of surviving it.

    The virus has mutated, as expected. In Mexico it is now resistive to Tamiflu. In the US Tamiflu is still working against it -- so far.

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    can this get me out of jury duty?

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    Subscriber Member Georg Baumann's Avatar
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Quote Originally Posted by cam View Post
    can this get me out of jury duty?
    Nope, but in the box.

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    Subscriber Member Georg Baumann's Avatar
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?


  37. #37
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Quote Originally Posted by Georg Baumann View Post
    Officially Level 5 now.


    But it is only precautionary, we're still ok.

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Quote Originally Posted by Oxide Blu View Post
    This swine flu appears to be a rerun of the swine flu of 1918, so far. It only kills people with healthy immune systems. Actually, the virus doesn't do the killing, it triggers a disproportional immune system response and the victim's own immune system kills them by attacking healthy tissue. You want to have as unhealthy an immune system as you can.

    So, drink more scotch (lots more!), eat more junk food, get less sleep, you should be good to go. Well, at least that's my plan for a defense.

    they are still recomending eating lots of veg & fruts & vitamin C, but scotch is OK.

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    So now we're fighting over aircraft vents? I think most planes have them and some don't, and they provide a source of fresher air, or perhaps not. Glad that's settled.

    But there's no need to worry anymore: they've stopped calling it "swine flu," in what is an apparently belated attmpt to save the lives of millions of innocent pigs. (http://www.southtownstar.com/news/15...e-0430.article) It's now called "H1N1 Influenza A."

    That should cut down on the hysteria; most TV talking heads (at least here in the US of A) won't be able to say "H1N1 Influenza A," and the absence of the term "swine flu" should entirely eliminate people's interest.

    Of course, the media may still call it swine flu, to cove up their newsreaders' stupidity. We'll have to wait and see.

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Quote Originally Posted by stephengilbert View Post
    Of course, the media may still call it swine flu, to cove up their newsreaders' stupidity. We'll have to wait and see.
    I'd vote for "HiNi Flu"
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Great that I read this one. My daughters just boarding a plane in Chicago to Paris as part of her school.
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  42. #42
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    The local newspaper today provided a factoid that provides an interesting perspective:

    So far, about 200 people worldwide have died in the H1N1 pandemic.

    Last year, ordinary seasonal flu killed 36,000 people in the United States alone.

    Maybe cable news has got us worrying about the wrong thing...?

  43. #43
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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Maybe it has more to do with percentages and infection rates. In a normal year, 200,000 to 300,000 people in the US will get the flu. 35,000 to 36,000 of them will die from it.

    It is far easier to catch this flu. It is proving itself very efficient at spreading. Perhaps it kills a lower percentage of the people that get it, but the number of people that will get will eclipse your garden variety seasonal flu. Projections are presuming a 50% infection rate -- 1 out of every 2 people may eventually be infected by this flu. Of course, the numbers could be smaller, too. Won't know until after it runs its course.

    Also, the more people that get this swine flu, the greater the opportunity for it to mutate into something more sinister. But it could also mutate into something far wimpier, too. No way to know until we get there. One thought is the reason it kills Mexicans is because it has been kicking around in Mexico for awhile now, has mutated into a more sinister flu down there -- hasn't worked its way north, yet. All of the deaths were in clusters in a specific areas.

    That is what has folks attention -- not what this flu is right now, but what it has the potential to be, and can it be contained if does morph into a deadly strain of flu.

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Relax Folks, there is a cure

    Cheers,
    Gandolfi.
    Last edited by gandolfi; 30th June 2014 at 07:19.

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Quote Originally Posted by Oxide Blu View Post
    That is what has folks attention -- not what this flu is right now, but what it has the potential to be, and can it be contained if does morph into a deadly strain of flu.
    Nail on head stuff here . . . . as for containment, I'd say (and the smart heads here in the UK all seem to agree) that there is absolutely no chance of containment - pandemic is on it's way.
    On the up side people are responding well to treatment, and for most it's no worse than normal flu. The real problem is likely to be in 3rd world countries where they don't have stockpiles of anti-viral drugs.

    Just this guy you know

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?


    pardon the language

    Just this guy you know

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Jono - love it!

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    Re: Swine Flu in Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

    Variation on a theme. Matt from the Telegraph last week.

    "The market wants a Leica to be a Leica: the inheritor of tradition, the subject of lore, and indisputably a mark of status to own."
    Mike Johnston


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