A lot of good discussion here, that's for sure. I have some observations and lingering questions.
Okay, so the DMR has a pixel pitch which is the same as the 39MP P45+/CF-39 (6.8um). The D3's pixel pitch of 8.45um is close to that of the 22MP P25+/ZD/CF-22 as well as the 16MP P20+/CFV (9um).
The 16MP square sensor P20+/CFV crops to 12MP if you use a 2:3 ratio. Does the D3 give the same look when the CFV is cropped? I'd be curious to see that. Perhaps Jim can offer some insight here. The CFV has no AA filter, obviously the D3 does. What is the true effect?
This is where we are now, but Photokina holds some interesting possiblities:
1) The R10 should be announced at Photokina. At the last Photokina 1 1/2 years ago, the R product manager told me the "larger than full frame" goal in an R9-sans-drive body size. Dr. Kaufmann repeated this again at the LHSA meeting in Oct. 07. To me, this is a pretty sound confirmation. Leica also appears to be commited to no AA filter, Kodak CCDs and high bit depth (the DMR was 16-bit). The Leica glass is truly amazing and capable of extremely high resolving power.
So, we have a larger than 35mm sensor with fat pixels, no AA, 16-bit capture, world-class glass in a small package. I would think that the R10 will pretty soundly trounce a D3x or 1Ds3, but how will it hold up against MFD? My theory is that it should outperform the 36x36mm 16MP square backs, and come close to the 22MP ones. We'll have to wait till 'kina to see, I guess... Something else that shouldn't be glossed over: the R10's DNG files will also work with any software on the market, so no workflow compromises.
2) Mamiya will probably come out with a new ZD back by Photokina to match with their new AFDIII camera. If Mamiya significantly improves performance and speed yet keeps the price under $10K, how will this affect the MF market? For me, they can keep it at 36x48mm 22MP, just make it faster with a nicer screen at a great price and they'll have a real winner (especially now that the ZD files work in C1 in addition to LR).
Either way, I think this is going to be a really interesting year. I'm really looking forward to checking everything out at Photokina in person. Maybe we should have a meetup in Cologne?...
David