This is the constant discussion.....how much will the S2 cost when it is finally released.... Personally, I tend to agree with Carsten that $9K is mostly wishful thinking. While the DSLRs may be around that mark, they are not doing it with a 37MP sensor that is larger than the 24x26mm size of 35mm FF. So, while hoping for a sub-$10K body is probably on the mind of many, including myself, it does sound like a bit of fantasy wishing, despite the economy. Fact is, Leica probably has a lot invested in this new camera, and they will need to start selling them to recover some costs. Tough spot to be in, especially with the economic downturn and the recent drops in MFD prices in several lines.
Leica is up against a couple tough things....new body/system that nobody has really used, aside from a very few testers at best. They also are fielding a new line of lenses that most folks are speculating will be great. There is NO used market for either at this point, so buyers are going to be at the mercy of the pricing. If Leica comes in high, as they have tended to do, it will not create a great incentive for present MF pros to switch or add, considering how much gear they would need to start filling up an S2 kit, nor would it draw all that many DSLR folks who are looking to move up, since the total packages needed (body and glass) is going to be a lot more expensive without a used market yet. So, for a few years, Leica is going to be fighting an uphill battle, regardless of how good the system may be.
That being said, I do think that they are too far into the S2 and maybe the R10 to back out at this point. My thoughts are that they should put them into the market and at very competitive prices compared to what they are competing against, if they hope to gain enough sales to get things rolling along. With that thought in mind, seeing a $12-15K price for the S2 with the 70mm lens might get a lot more folks to start thinking about the S2. Then having lenses at a somewhat reasonable pricing to help fill out the system would also be needed. The $5K per lens that folks have tossed about will be a show stopper for a lot of pros that would either have to liquidate present gear at losses, or double up systems for a while. Not attractive a price point at all. Maybe $2-3K would fly a lot better, yet still net them some return.
From my own perspective, I love the idea and concept of the S2. It seems to hit enough marks for my needs and wants to get the job done if it truly performs as folks have talked about based on the prototypes and such. I think it will be able to penetrate a tough market segment IF it is priced for pros to realistically add/switch, and it delivers what it promises. If Leica gets "greedy" and overprices it, there will not be a rush for anybody to buy into it for some time (at least until the economies recover a lot more, and that may be 1-2 years). If they price it very attractively, and possibly even take a bit of loss on the body and lowered margins on the lenses for the next year or so, it could become a runaway great seller for them. I think that is what a lot of us would like to see, but we are not making/selling the things, so we are not faced with the economics Leica has to wrestle with. If the S2 hit the market at $12K with a lens, and the other lenses were $2-3K, I think there would be a lot of folks buying one or seriously figuring out how to get one quickly. I know I will be in that line. If it comes out at $15+K and lenses are $4-5K, I will not bother with it until things turn around a lot, and there is a developing used market for the system....about 2 years and more.
Just my thoughts. Like Marc has commented, the IQ is probably going to be there, but it is the business cost that will carry the day. If the S2 does what it has been advertised to do, and also comes out at a realistic price, I think it will burn up the market. If it fails on either one of those, it will be DOA, in my opinion.
LJ