Agree, some market specs w/segmentation would be VERY interesting.
While I agree a LOT of folks would be compelled by the S2 due to the promises of the glass, the same folks will also be willing write-the S2 off as an option at the first rumors of M8-esque issues re: reliability, consistent behavior, slow service, etc.
Leica will always sell well to Leica fans. The challenge is to sell to folks who (in their minds) have LOTs of options and would normally never consider, for a variety of reasons, Leica. Tougher nut to crack.
Had the degree of Phase involvement held up to the press releases, that would have gone a long way to reassuring potential non-typical customers. Even the ongoing soap- opera as to who is doing what re: the relationship has GOT to have some folks wondering "Hell, if they can't even get that straight on day 1...".
So far (and it is still very early) Leica appears to be treating the S2 re: sales, support, service, etc., like a large R10 and that COULD end up being a tragic mistake. I hope things change re: Phase and the firm starts giving some concrete guidance as to how it intends to sell, warranty and S&S the product ASAP - BEFORE it is released.
Of the two DSLR placers entering the 'tweener market, they do have a LOT of work to do re: glass that will support 30-40MP (in Canon's case 21 MP).
That said, I suspect the first player to post a claim will be Nikon. Yes there is the mX rumor and adverts re: the upcoming WPPI (sic?) show, but they've also shown the most innovation and willingness to break outside their typical comfort zone with the new Board members.
The D3 and D700 were sudden shifts in behavior and in many cases innovative. The 14-24 and 24-70 G are outstanding WA optics and clearly designed for absolute IQ. Much like Leica and the after-thought that is the R10, the lack of announcements by Nikon at the show may be linked to where the resources are quietly going outside their normal market. On the other hand, maybe not.
Canon is still the old Canon so far and may play camp-follower to Nikon, at least initially. The 5DII shook up the market, but it wasn't due to innovation or a sudden change in behavior by the firm, it was all due to price - a tactic anyone with enough resources can use. Glass wise - so far nothing of interest.
It's all speculation, but still fun ;>