Paul Spinnler
Well-known member
Ok, so we are closing in towards the end of the year.
Time to summarize what's coming in 2024 and analyze what this means for the high-end medium format market:
Phase One:
+ 70 XT tilt was just announced with MK II shutter assembly and 5 degrees of tilt (vs. 3 degrees on the 32, 40, 50 tilt XT variants)
+ 90 XT would be the next natural announcement, I would think sometime beg. of next year
+ XT XL fully integrated large tech shift cam (my hope is 22.5mm left and right, my hunch is 18mm left and right as to be differentiated from the Cambo product line – would be a shame)
+ XC – standalone availability as soon as China sales taper off
+ Digital back – probably 2025 due to lack of new sensors; XT XL, 70 and 90 should give P1 a good cadence for the year
+ Plus variant a possbility, but I would assume they'll aim for an IQ5, ideally with higher DR, better I/O, battery, on-board processing
+ XF: Let's just hope it is not discontinued
Hasselblad:
+ New 100 megapixel V mount back at an affordable price point – this should be a boon for Alpa and other open tech cam manufacturers
Arca:
+ There's this new compact mini-bellows camera – unsure about the value proposition
+ Mostly sees itself as an accessories manufacturer with main focus on tripod heads
Alpa:
+ Continued focus on expanding media presence and focused on new Hassy back (their IG is alive and they send out demo kits to youtubers, see the latest Peter McKinnon feature for example)
+ Focus on luxury segment - highest end tools and workmanship for a select clientele which appreciates beautiful cameras; you pay for a camera and a beautiful object
Linhof:
+ Is owned by one of the wealthiest Munich based real estate owners, so they'll continue to be here, but no innovations expected; still wouldn't wait forever to order a MT3000, there are no guarantees ...
Cambo:
+ No new developments beside JV with P1; they have the broadest manufacturing capabilities for tech cam stuff, including a whole range of helicals!
Sinar:
+ Still alive – selling new and refurbished P3s!
xxxxx Crop segment xxxxx:
Leica:
+ S4 in development, expected in 2025. First new medium format system since HX ...
+ "Ultimate Leica" – compatible with all lens families, M, SL, S vintage, and S next gen all in one body
Fuji:
+ Cementing the lead in crop MF and MF if you consider absolute sales volumes. Workflow, workflow, workflow. Best way to move up the ladder from Sony and CaNikon, price-wise outright affordable compared to the traditional tech cam approach
xxxxx Lenses xxxxx
Rodenstock:
+ No new lenses given lack of market viability; there's a 25mm 90IC lens in the drawer and at one point ruminations about an 70-SW, but would not expect anything to materialize
*****
Lens prices
Nothing beats Rodie HR and SK late stage lenses in terms of high resolution and large image circle; even Fuji T/S has IC of 80 only. Interestingly enough, Rodie HR lenses are very rare on eBay still unlike the prior gen sironar digitals, for example.
There is no alternative to these lenses if you want to achieve the highest resolution imagery today incl. ability to shift and stitch large images for fine art applications.
*****
So this leaves us with P1 holding the torch, followed by Hassy's new back which is expected to drive sales of non P1 tech cams. Lens prices stable given lack of alternatives and continually increasing production costs.
It is a nice glimmer of hope that P1 is still investing in photography.
Fingers crossed for an IQ5!
Time to summarize what's coming in 2024 and analyze what this means for the high-end medium format market:
Phase One:
+ 70 XT tilt was just announced with MK II shutter assembly and 5 degrees of tilt (vs. 3 degrees on the 32, 40, 50 tilt XT variants)
+ 90 XT would be the next natural announcement, I would think sometime beg. of next year
+ XT XL fully integrated large tech shift cam (my hope is 22.5mm left and right, my hunch is 18mm left and right as to be differentiated from the Cambo product line – would be a shame)
+ XC – standalone availability as soon as China sales taper off
+ Digital back – probably 2025 due to lack of new sensors; XT XL, 70 and 90 should give P1 a good cadence for the year
+ Plus variant a possbility, but I would assume they'll aim for an IQ5, ideally with higher DR, better I/O, battery, on-board processing
+ XF: Let's just hope it is not discontinued
Hasselblad:
+ New 100 megapixel V mount back at an affordable price point – this should be a boon for Alpa and other open tech cam manufacturers
Arca:
+ There's this new compact mini-bellows camera – unsure about the value proposition
+ Mostly sees itself as an accessories manufacturer with main focus on tripod heads
Alpa:
+ Continued focus on expanding media presence and focused on new Hassy back (their IG is alive and they send out demo kits to youtubers, see the latest Peter McKinnon feature for example)
+ Focus on luxury segment - highest end tools and workmanship for a select clientele which appreciates beautiful cameras; you pay for a camera and a beautiful object
Linhof:
+ Is owned by one of the wealthiest Munich based real estate owners, so they'll continue to be here, but no innovations expected; still wouldn't wait forever to order a MT3000, there are no guarantees ...
Cambo:
+ No new developments beside JV with P1; they have the broadest manufacturing capabilities for tech cam stuff, including a whole range of helicals!
Sinar:
+ Still alive – selling new and refurbished P3s!
xxxxx Crop segment xxxxx:
Leica:
+ S4 in development, expected in 2025. First new medium format system since HX ...
+ "Ultimate Leica" – compatible with all lens families, M, SL, S vintage, and S next gen all in one body
Fuji:
+ Cementing the lead in crop MF and MF if you consider absolute sales volumes. Workflow, workflow, workflow. Best way to move up the ladder from Sony and CaNikon, price-wise outright affordable compared to the traditional tech cam approach
xxxxx Lenses xxxxx
Rodenstock:
+ No new lenses given lack of market viability; there's a 25mm 90IC lens in the drawer and at one point ruminations about an 70-SW, but would not expect anything to materialize
*****
Lens prices
- Rodie HR: lenses have increased in price and used market is dry; ie people are holding onto their lenses still = stable prices
- SK: Magic four expected to increase as economy improves given rarity; non-magic-four slightly lower in price, e.g. 47 digitar or rarely used teles
Nothing beats Rodie HR and SK late stage lenses in terms of high resolution and large image circle; even Fuji T/S has IC of 80 only. Interestingly enough, Rodie HR lenses are very rare on eBay still unlike the prior gen sironar digitals, for example.
There is no alternative to these lenses if you want to achieve the highest resolution imagery today incl. ability to shift and stitch large images for fine art applications.
*****
So this leaves us with P1 holding the torch, followed by Hassy's new back which is expected to drive sales of non P1 tech cams. Lens prices stable given lack of alternatives and continually increasing production costs.
It is a nice glimmer of hope that P1 is still investing in photography.
Fingers crossed for an IQ5!
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