MFD 2025 – state of the industry and outlook

[Paul Spinnler]

So 2024 is coming to an end and we had some good releases from P1 at the beginning of the year and also the advent of the 100 megapixel Hassy back, so in a way a good year, but clearly activity stays muted with a bit of a lull on the forum here as well, at least it seems to me.

This being said, 2025 is looking to be a VERY interesting year for MFD, including also tech cams, so I think its worthwhile looking into the crystal ball to see what's next:

1. Phase One
   1. Clearly the elephant in the room - if they release the IQ5 this could finally be the impulse needed to revive the tech cam category
      1. Mainly because it will create movement in existing IQ4s moving to new hands by people who upgrade
   2. 250 MPX IQ5 is confirmed and being worked on; 3:2
      1. Big question is if this is a product people buy given a lot of trust has been lost due to complete lack of news, the XT tilt lens debacle, etc. and given it is 3:2
   3. Open question around: ancillary improvements, ie: EVF, tiltable screen, I/O and battery life, even DR
   4. Lenses: All lenses moved to tilt variants, 70 and 90 HR and especially the new 150 and the electric back extender indicate that we're about to finally see the XT XL which is essentially a re-badged Cambo wide shift camera (ie 18mm+)
   5. XC 40 is nice, but a non-starter price-wise; the Alpa solution with the 40 HR in X shutter costs a bit more than half ...
2. Leica
   1. ARGUABLY THE BIGGEST UPCOMING release is the S4
   2. The S4 is confirmed via my sources to be compatible with ALL Leica lenses, including the SL glass, which essentially means it'll have a flange focal distance below 20mm, which in turn means it'll be even able to adapt Fuji lenses and Hasselblad X lenses
   3. This puts the S4 in an absolutely unique position in the MFD world as it'll be literally the universal MFD body which can adapt - short of a digital back - most if not all medium format glass
   4. Leica has not released many new lenses recently as all the R&D capacity is currently flowing into the new S lineup which will be all Summarit, APO, meaning 2.5. There might be 100 2.0 again, but essentially all S glass will be engineered to the utmost quality possible optically with Leica's latest fifth gen aspheric technology - ie one stop beyond SL - and with trademark S glass build quality and features.
   5. I have not confirmed it yet, but my understanding is besides APO that all lenses will be LS
   6. The S vintage glass is still fantastic and similar to classic Zeiss cinema glass ie these are class-leading MF optics still, without reproach and will be a sort of vintage look with modern characteristics as an additional option compared to the new Summarits – ALL S GLASS SHOULD BE PICKED UP NOW
   7. Target release is next year, but as always nothing is guaranteed
3. Fuji
   1. New Sony chips will drive new products, as of now there's no crop variant of the 811 chip gen announced;
   2. More compact 100 MPX camera could be next
4. Hasselblad / DJI
   1. After the new back release I suppose we will mainly see new lenses until new Sony chips are available
5. Alpa
   1. Re-newed momentum via workshops which is now the main channel of sales as Alpa cameras need to be felt to be understood
   2. Building out of Asian presence, especially China is current focus
   3. Hopeful that they at one point find a solution for the mirrorless age to adapter Fuji, Hassy, etc. glass
6. Arca
   1. Pico is the big release, but it is nothing new except a more solid bellows cam solution which remains hamstrung by the wide-angle limitations for adapted mirrorless bodies
      1. Machining is top notch and it feels amazing, but unsure if this was the right development direction after the R and having already M-2, etc.
7. Cambo
   1. Nothing new except lens caps
   2. Likely next release is the contract manufactured XT XL as they hold the patent for electrical contacts between tech cam lens and digital back
   3. They focused their energy on other stuff recently, as can be seen with their film scanning stages which dramatically undercut the P1 contract manufactured stuff from the heritage division
8. Linhof
   1. Not sure they found the mechanical guy they were looking for - always afraid they're out of business at one point
   2. Apparently gets sponsored by a wealthy Munich based benefactor with real estate background
   3. If you want a new Linhof product – BUY NOW
9. Rodenstock
   1. Nothing new, will continue with HR business, a new price increase might be looming
10. SK
    1. Rumoured to be working with P1 on selected additions to the line-up via Japanese contract manufacturing

So the next big releases are essentially the IQ5 and the S4, let's hope these products will reinvigorate the MFD category!

The super low FFD of the S4 also means that over time Kipon et al will produce electric adapters most likely which then in turn can control Fuji and Hassy glass. So basically at one point you can just stick with an S4 for colour handheld, which covers the gamut from M, SL, and other colour bodies and complement it with the M12M which most likely will be a 100 MPX achromatic M.

The natural extension into ultra high quality would then be an Alpa kit with large shift bodies and the TC which allow for 250 MPX handheld (TC) and ultra high res stitching.

So the dream trio IMHO would be: S4, M12M, Alpa IQ5 with the S4 opening up all other mounts at the start and over time courtesy of Kipon, Techart, Fotodiox et al stepping in (they design their own microchips and have the fusion tech so at one point the only thing which matters is what the shortes FFD camera is you have.

With SL compatibility we are looking at below 20mm FFD in an EVF body, which is truly amazing news for all shooters, including Fuji and Hassy who most likely over time will be able to use their glass on the S4.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

So how's the sentiment overall towards tech cams? Views pls.? Can we get a bit action going again on this forum

 

[ThdeDude]

...2025 is looking to be a VERY interesting year for MFD, including also tech cams ...

Would like to add, looking at the release dates for HB's X System, we have:

06/2016 - X1D-50c

three years, one month

07/2019 - X1D-50c Mark II

three years, two months

09/2022 - X2D-100c

three years?, three months?

12/2025 - X2D-100c Mark II ?

And if we are luckily, also CFV-100C Mark II at the same time.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

The only unknown with regards to the S4 and also the other Fuji / Hassy crop cams is when and how Sony will release new chips beyond 100 MPX. There's no public announcement yet, so for now the assumption must be that even the S4 will be on 100 MPX - but if say Sony tells everyone that they'll have a 180 MPX ready by mid 2025 for testing it could delay the S4 as it wouldn't make sense to literally release a new body on the tail-end of a sensor gen when the next one is ready and in sampling mode with customers ...

So there's a theoretical scenario where Leica IS ready but waits half a year or nine months to get the new chip which means EVERYONE releases more or less at the same time then a new gen camera.

Essentially the whole MFD market marches to the beat of Sony. With new sensors come new products. Without, we have standstill.

 

[mristuccia]

I for one am perfectly fine with what's on the market right now. The HB 100c BSI has covered all my needs. My Wide DS Digital does the job very well. I'll probably move to one of the WRS just for size and weight reasons.
So, I won't follow nor hold my breath for anything in particular, but I'm pretty much sure I will hear the news from you all in this forum.
For the time being I'll spend my time improving my photography skills and creativity.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

The problem is a bit that the ecosystem depends on consumption. Sales for Arca, Alpa and Cambo are significantly down compared to a few years ago and they need to sell their cameras and lenses to pay salaries and come up with new products, so if everyone is just content with what they currently have all of the manufacturers will go away at one point ... and then all there is is ebay similar to copal shutters, etc.

The question is - what is the next killer product for tech cam manufacturers?

IMHO it would need to be sth to adapt the current gen of mirrorless MF lenses onto digital backs and mirrorless bodies - which would require a re-design of current bodies to be able to work with the very low focal flange distances of the mirrorless era.

Ie adapting a Fuji lens with aperture control onto a next-gen Alpa body with any back or mirrorless body on the backside. This requires a new tech cam standard though ...

 

[ThdeDude]

... Sales for Arca, Alpa and Cambo are significantly down compared to a few years ago ...

I wonder whether sales would pick up if there would be a medium-format digital back with performance and features you could be "content" with and which would also be competitively priced.

 

[mristuccia]

The problem is a bit that the ecosystem depends on consumption. Sales for Arca, Alpa and Cambo are significantly down compared to a few years ago and they need to sell their cameras and lenses to pay salaries and come up with new products, so if everyone is just content with what they currently have all of the manufacturers will go away at one point ... and then all there is is ebay similar to copal shutters, etc.

The question is - what is the next killer product for tech cam manufacturers?

IMHO it would need to be sth to adapt the current gen of mirrorless MF lenses onto digital backs and mirrorless bodies - which would require a re-design of current bodies to be able to work with the very low focal flange distances of the mirrorless era.

Ie adapting a Fuji lens with aperture control onto a next-gen Alpa body with any back or mirrorless body on the backside. This requires a new tech cam standard though ...

I would rather pay for frequent firmware updates with new features than for continuous HW updates.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

So there is the cheap MF back already, you can easily buy an ok IQ back for 3-4k or a Hassy one for 7k or so - but then you have the lens issue and then well it's so tricky to understand what would be the solution for Arca, Alpa et al to really drive sales.

Maybe its also an education thing - the new gen of shooters don't come from a view camera background so the "tech cam way" is not understood or known

 

[Paul Spinnler]

I would rather pay for frequent firmware updates with new features than for continuous HW updates.

Yes but then you'll have no more tech cam manufacturers - the question to me is, what's the way forward for this niche industry? How can it grow again, or is it impossible?

 

[mristuccia]

Tech cameras have already reached their peak. Manufacturers are only reinventing the wheel.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

Tech cameras have already reached their peak. Manufacturers are only reinventing the wheel.

Yes, by that measure - reinventing the wheel - we could all just walk around with an iPhone; but there's ofc a tactile experience of "making an image" with a beautifully manufactured tech camera which introduces a meditative aspect to the process which still is worthwhile IMHO; so I do hope that somehow tech cam manufacturers can innovate, e.g. by building new bodies which can adapt also mirrorless lenses, so that the shift cam concept can be appreciated by the current generation of photographers which are mirrorless natives and have never touched a 4x5 or similar.

Let's say one does have the new Hassy cam and three lenses - if there was a gateaway to reuse the optics in a shiftable manner on digital backs - I am sure that would lure more people into tech cams overall.

 

[JeffK]

One of the things missing from this conversation is the growth of computational photography. Frame averaging in real time is technically possible. Paul R. called Drew out on it in a P1 webinar. A higher rez sensor needs to be supported too by a new ecosystem that is future proofed with enough ram, caching and pipeline.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

Agree its a bit make or break for the whole category for P1 to bring out something that's so fantastic that people really want a digital back of such caliber that it makes sense given the current landscape of high quality tools available.

Back in the golden digital back days, more than 10y ago, there was no alternative to digital backs for highest quality; there is of course the dynamic range topic - see Arri Alexa - the in-camera processing topic - frame averaging, etc.

For P1 to thrive on the photo side the IQ5 needs to bring a lot more to the table than just higher res - it needs to deliver on all sore points:

1) EVF
2) Battery life
3) Abysmal WIFI needs to be fixed, bluetooth added
4) Tilt screen

Looking at all of these things the EVF is absolutely crucial; the industry has moved to more compact systems because of the mirrorless systems so if one cannot "transform" the IQ5 into a mirrorless body via an EVF attachment it would be really bad.

I would not mind to focus manually a Rodie HR lens if I could look through a high res viewfinder - on the TC with IQ4 live view it works quite well; but if the IQ5 does not have an EVF path it would be super bad IMHO

 

[ThdeDude]

... you can easily buy an ok IQ back for 3-4k or a Hassy one for 7k or so ...

Yes, but even the last two P1 generations, IQ3 and IQ4, have various handling issues that in 2025 many may not want to deal with anymore. In particular, slow readout speed, critical when electronic shutter is used. Others are slow startup, short battery life, no or limited wireless operation or transfer.

For me the two critical features missing from the CFV-100c are:
- two exposure (highlight, shadow) averaging, like IQ4's Dual EXP+
- long exposure averaging, like IQ4's automatic frame averaging
Maybe a Mark II CFV-100c!

 

[SrMphoto]

A higher resolution sensor will likely mean slower sensor readout. This would affect frame averaging and scene movements.
I wish Hasselblad would come out with a CFV 100 without OSPDAF.
In-camera frame averaging is something I wish for in every camera.
Dual exposure in Hasselblad would require support in Adobe, which is unlikely. In the presence of frame averaging, I wonder whether dual exposure is that helpful.
Raw histogram in CFV would be nice.

 

[se7en]

For P1 to thrive on the photo side the IQ5 needs to bring a lot more to the table than just higher res - it needs to deliver on all sore points:

1) EVF
2) Battery life
3) Abysmal WIFI needs to be fixed, bluetooth added
4) Tilt screen

Looking at all of these things the EVF is absolutely crucial; the industry has moved to more compact systems because of the mirrorless systems so if one cannot "transform" the IQ5 into a mirrorless body via an EVF attachment it would be really bad.

This is an extremely good point, Paul - no doubt. Those are all of the areas which P1 really need to focus their attention. Do you think it's likely Phase will aim the new 247mpx sensor into an "all-in-one" camera? (body + sensor eg. X2D, GFX, etc mirrorless) Or will they still focus on supporting having a separate/back body as well to offer? The XF I've been using for 5 years now and recently as an IQ4 owner, it's sadly not one of the better bodies I've used over the years and needs lots of attention to keep me as a Phase user.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

I have a terrible hunch it will be literally an IQ4 with new sensor and "moderately" updated electronics and if we are lucky a tilt screen. Its more the lack of effort from P1's side, you know, also the XT felt like quasi abandoned with six years later still not even the XT XL out ... so I feel from all the million things they could do, like developing a new mirrorless system etc. we will literally just get the new back.

I am still unsure whether 3:2 is sth for me, I'll borrow one to see if on a cropped in basis file quality in terms of resolution exceeds single shot of an IQ4 ... then I'll decide.

If there's an EVF solution though ... then I am definitely in.

 

[se7en]

I am still unsure whether 3:2 is sth for me, I'll borrow one to see if on a cropped in basis file quality in terms of resolution exceeds single shot of an IQ4 ... then I'll decide.

If there's an EVF solution though ... then I am definitely in.

Absolutely Paul - I’d not been very savvy with the trade winds regarding the current crop of MFD products for the past three or four years until the past six or eight weeks when I finally opted for an IQ4 for my XF at an eyewateringly cheap price (the reason I decided to pursue the purchase and after a test shoot). The P1 dealer in conversation mentioned the upcoming 247mpx back in conversation though advised it was 3:2 - of which they mentioned it is likely the IQ4 will be a back with some longevity/preference for us fashion photographers given the 4:3 ratio. I tried to tease from him concrete product releases from P1 for any firmware or actual new bodies but remained tight-lipped. Admittedly I did take a gamble, in hindsight, on the IQ4 150 - the images are ridiculously good though I’ve missed many solid shots by ahortcomingof the XF body far too much. I guess I believe in P1…

I’m completely with you for the if they can deliver an EVF solution. I’d be all too happy to stay with P1 in that case.

Would you say P1 is in a state of flux given the fork in the road they seem to be confronted with?

 

[Paul Spinnler]

I think before the new Sony sensor arrived the strategy, given it is private equity owned, was to just focus on B2B and milk the photo business max, even if it meant a declining user base - it was all about per customer and per product sale profitability, meaning keep prices high and serve fewer and fewer people buying new.

With the perspective of the new Sony chip I think it shifted from passive milking to getting a bit of capital for marketing and new products, albeit still with the limitation that everything needs to be profitable quickly. The capital mostly flowed into custom products with Cambo and SK via Japan.

The XC40 is an example of this - they ofc needed to pay Cambo to do a new mount, but the pricing was so high that even with 10-20 units per year they'll make a handsome profit covering the running costs of the photo division managers, the customer support etc.

Now with the new Sony chip everyone sees this wave of upgrades, so I suppose there's now internally more goodwill towards investing in the business, but it remains a big question mark how big that upgrade community still is in today's market. Are we going to see a few hundred upgrades or a few thousand? I wouldn't want to bet in today's market, to be honest.

It's a function of two things, right: 1) The value proposition of the new back - is it WOW - and 2) are people still willing to pay 25k with tradein or even 50k for a new back.

If I were them I'd make sure there's enough capital to really make it a great product and also price it aggressively at say 20-24k with trade-in ... we'll see soon enough.

I just know that even 25k with trade-in is a lot harder to justify nowadays than in 2019 ...