Steve
I do understand your point of view and nothing in this is personal against you.
I made some assumptions and worked on a best case scenario, which has not worked out. The reality is that the longer it takes for Phase One to bring out a camera the higher the chance is that I won't buy one.
Why some might ask.
Well first off the generational difference between the IQ180 and any Phase One camera might be so great that many of the camera features might only work with and IQ350 or IQ480 or what ever is current at that time.
Secondly alternative camera systems might be more attractive at the time, so I might prefer to spend money in another way.
So where I was hot to trot a year or so ago, now I am more reserved and will just wait and see.
Regards
Mal
Mal, I'm with you on this. There was a time when I hoped there would be a D4X from Nikon (bigger sensor with D3/4 form factor) but now I'm not sure I would be interested if, hypothetically, such a camera were to be announced at Photokina. There are times that are right for a particular product but they don't last for ever.
I bought into Phase One in 2009. Over time I have also bought a technical camera and a Nikon D800 and am finding the Phase One camera and lenses being used less and less. It wouldn't be sensible to buy anything more from Phase at least until there is a clear direction for a new body. With the Rodenstock 23 and 32mm lenses on the Arca and the Zeiss 15mm on the D800E then do I really need the 645DF and 28m lens anymore ? It's a nice dilemma to have of course and selling them might just be followed by the announcement of a new camera. So my answer to myself is "not for the time being".
The Phase One CEO talked a while back and in general terms on a LuLa video about a new body being in the works. They also make a big point of protecting their customers' investment and now seem to have a policy of only making announcements when products are ready to ship. Somewhat contradictory perhaps.
The availability of the Sony CMOS sensor to multiple manufacturers may be changing the shape of the MF segment and of its profit pool too. How do Phase react if any of the other major players come into this segment? Yes it is a small market but high barriers to entry have meant good margins for those, principally Phase, that have got it right. H who once owned the segment have been driven close to the edge if not yet over it for getting things wrong. Pentax has introduced a new price point which seems to be encouraging people to trade up from 35mm. Fuji have a long history in MF and have won many admirers for their X series. Somebody, somewhere might just be interested in exploiting any Phase One weaknesses and disrupting them.
If Phase don't announce a new camera at Photokina it will be because they think they have good reasons not to. But surely a year or so after their CEO confirms publicly that they have a new body under development they cannot simply say nothing without damaging the trust they have built up with their customers over the last decade or so. "Trust us" only lasts so long.
In my time in the electronics industry we regularly shared 2-3 year product roadmaps with major customers. The situation here is somewhat different but I don't think it is people breaking NDAs that is behind the widespread rumours surrounding new products before they are launched. It's often part of a deliberate process of creating awareness and interest in the market place. Sometimes pre-announcing a product ahead of its availability makes good commercial sense if it gets people to hold off buying from a competitor AND if you know when you are going to be able to deliver.
Phase One has been my system of choice for the last five or so years but now languish less and less used and a little unloved. Perhaps it's just me but I suspect not. The time is surely coming for Phase at least to say something to their customers who have made a long term commitment to their product and platform ? Preferably openly and not anonymously feeding the rumour mills.
When industry structures change, silence from the market leader can be a sign not of confidence but of hubris.