woodyspedden
New member
Hey Rob, I can't agree with you here.I wouldn't give credit to the S2. Not only is it not out yet but it's expected to be (at best) a like-priced (to pre-yesterday values anyway) kit.
A far more likely scenario, especially given the current pricing curve on lower-MP-count MFDB systems, will see the S2 as a (hefty) premium system.
Given Leica's history, tendencies and economic size, not to mention the raft of R&D just spent (vs well behind H & P in that MP range), there is only so far Leica can lock-step down the 38-39MP pricing curve (as much as they intended to do so) before the S2 becomes economically undoable.
It puts Leica in a bind if things continue. They could the S2 HAVE to be priced (their pricing tendencies aside) at snack brackets that, upon the S2's release, have become 45-50MP territory for H, P and Leaf. You can also assume that upon the S2s release, promotions will be forthcoming to given even greater hesitation to any folks looking to jump.
The S2 will also be at the lower-end (never though I'd say this about 38-39MP kit) of the MP-count range -- going up against products like the H3DII-39 which looks to be starting to be pushed down the stack by Hassy (they really seem to be pushing it) to become their entry high-spec kit (probably not explaining what I mean well).
In short, the last thing Hassy et al have to worry about is Leica offering a top quality product (a given) at cut-rate prices (no way) to steal share.
If anything Leica needs to get the S2 out early and price it as aggressively as the spreadsheets will allow - even to the point of loosing margin on a per body basis and push the glass. That said, won't happen.
The current moves are Hassy trying to entice nervous Leaf-Sinar shooters after the F&H news and Leaf trying to re-assure/keep the same group - and maybe, just maybe, entice some shooters over to avoid sales stagnation as people hold fire to see how the Sinar situation plays out.
It would be an obvious conclusion that Phamiya will be next.
...Just some opinionated mutterings from the cheap seats ;>
My sources tell me that the original Hassy price crash just prior to Photokina, was based on knowledge of the impending S2. This strategy, while dangerous, is understandable. If you believe the S2 system is going to be popular then the price crash does one of two things.......forces Leica to follow you into those waters or price to their usual model and be way more expensive than their competition. In these economic times a hefty price differential will be hard to swallow for potential customers. But Leica keep saying they will be pricing the S2 competitively (whatever that exactly means). So we will just have to wait for the dust to settle in late summer then will we know
Woody