When will IQ4 150 hit sub US $10k?

[Maxx9photo]

At this point, if you still hold on 2018 technology for $20k for a pre owned, I think it's insane!

 

[John Black]

The original Fuji GFX 100s and subsequent X2D didn't do alot to move the IQ4-150 price point, so it seems unlikely the GFX 100 II or the Hasselblad 100 MP back will change things much. If a next generation 100 MP or 150 MP 44x33mm digital back comes to market, that'll likely be tipping point.

 

[Alan]

After the initial upgrade “rush” to an IQ5 settles down.

 

[anyone]

It may be already old(er) but it is the only large sensor BSI back. So people (understandably) stick to it.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

Still for quite a while, even when the IQ5 comes out – it is superior to any other back out there and it had distinct advantages compared to the CVF100c back not at leasr of which is full compatibility with C1.

In fact, if there's an IQ5 with 200 megapixels the trade-in value will be a good anchor for price.

If IQ5 is 49k and IQ4 gives you upgrade to it for 26k, the residual value is still 23k and market price will be 20ish still.

You can try to stomp and low ball and hope to find a forced seller and may get it a bit below if someone wants cash ASAP, but I doubt it will be the norm.

Age doesn't mean anything if the tech is still great. Once upgrade cycles have settled, it may fall to 16, 15, but not 10k so fast if there's a trade-in value to be had.

The P1 trade-in value will pin it at a high value for a long time.

Anyone with an IQ4 at this stage should just hold onto it and sell when IQ5 arrives at a slight discoutn to the residual value so someone else can get his IQ5 a tad cheaper.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

http://instagr.am/p/C2kEPKJv0Jd/
"To be continued ..."

I think they are not done yet and the trade-in value will make IQ4s really sought after bargaining chips!

A cutting edge IQ5 with 200 megapixels will be awesome.

I expect a 2025 IQ5, this year is XT etc.

The CFV100c won't change anything to the price as its almost 10k and basically a mini version of the IQ4 with less features and its own problems on tech cams (no C1, no frame averaging, less pixels, no ISO50, no x shutter, etc.) – use of Rodie glass for architecture on CFV100c is super tricky ad you can't directly go via C1 for distortion control and you also have no X shutter, meaning no high speed flash and no handheld without wobble on adapted glass. On top, it may suffer from issues when shooting in direct sunglight due to PDAF.

and now most new MF cameras are out and IQ4 can chug along as the king of the BSI hill with FA and C1 compatibility for a while to come. Will be 2-3 years before we see anything new from Fuji and Hassy and I still feel the IQ4 is absolutely amazing and the best sensor money can buy.

Using it everyday with the Alpa!

P1 is going to release some killer products soon, new lenses, (hopefully large shift body with metadata), etc.

 

[jng]

A cutting edge IQ5 with 200 megapixels will be awesome.

I expect a 2025 IQ5, this year is XT etc.

P1 is going to release some killer products soon, new lenses, (hopefully large shift body with metadata), etc.

Paul,

Do you have actual, reliable inside information about P1's upcoming releases (200 Mp IQ5, large-shift XT, X-shutter tilt lenses, etc.), or is this speculation on your part? Not trying to stir things up, mind you, just honestly asking. For a friend...

John

 

[Mexecutioner]

At this point, if you still hold on 2018 technology for $20k for a pre owned, I think it's insane!

I wonder what’s the point of these threads?

 

[Paul Spinnler]

It is a rumour I have from a large European dealer last week – let's recount the known facts and you judge:

1) Sony already developed a 3.45micron pixel pitch MF sensor which is 200 scaled up

http://thenewcamera.com/sony-120mp-medium-format-sensor-with-global-shutter/

Replace GS circuit with IQ4 high DR circuit and increase size to 54x40 and there's your 200 megapixel IQ5. Also tech cam glass will still easily resoilve it, hell, the Samsung galaxy phone resolves 200 megapixels with a bad lens, lol. The galaxy sensor is 0.6 microns ... ie still a sixth of an IQ5 in 3.45. That would be a Gigapixel back!

2) The dealer mentioned that he heard about 200 megapixels, but that supply chain issues were still a problem
3) Steve Hendrix mentioned that P1 visited them before end of the year showing off some new products which looked really interesting and encouraging
>> Rumoured are 90 Tilt, 150mm lens, a large XT and down the line a new back - these things I have heard via dealers
4) I've also heard from their Head of Sales that they are working on products, without further specifics (e.g. unclear whether lens, large XT, IQ5)
5) Their insta is alive again since a few weeks, they recently posted a reel celebrating 30 years of backs with an ominous "to be continued"
6) XC is apparently selling well in China, which bodes well for the investors to allocate capital to the division for new products if Sony samples a new sensor
7) Axcel's investment in P1 is now 5 years soon, so typically PE wants to sell after 5 year hold - before a sale you dress up the bride by cutting costs and launching new products -> XT was launched around the time of Axcel's investment

To me it sounds very logical that they wouldn't re-start insta, present new product to Steve, dealers mentioning exactly this megapixel number, wouldn't launch multiple new procucts this year on top pf all the XT tilt lenses released last year (32, 50, 70) if there wasn't something coming.

I believe supply chains ARE a BIG problem, but I also believe that an IQ5 is coming with a smaller pixel pitch as main driver to justify IQ5. With supply chain I mean that their launch of an IQ5 is largely dependent on when Sony is able to deliver a new product in mass production which atm is tricky with priorities, difficult supply chain situation for input materials, Sony's production capacities, etc.

But all the points above seem to indicate to me that P1 is alive and that they're essentially waiting for Sony to be ready to launch the next-gen.

Once that happens, all other systems will follow in the years after, as we've seen now. Hasselblad only now brought out a mini IQ4 with reduced features - 5 years into the life of the cutting edge IQ4 which is still unparalleled in many ways.

In fact, without distortion correction for Rodie glass, the CFV100c is not comparable at all against P1 backs for proper tech cam use. If you move from P1 to CFV100c you will miss some nice features, so best stick with IQ4 and hold it out.

200 megapixels should not be a problem for Sony ... it would be the next gen opening path for M12, SL4, S4 (crop MF at 130 megapixels), next gen Fuji and Hassy (130) - with P1 getting first dibs as usual for a premium.

This new tech would mean almost 80 megapixel 35mm with high DR too. We are at currently 60 megapixels, which is the frontier of the IQ4 gen Sony chips – P1 had access to them before anyone else back in 2018 already ... and only now we see widespread 60 megapixel 35mm and 100 megapixel crop MF.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

I wonder what’s the point of these threads?

He wants an IQ4 and wants to lowball his way into it.

 

[Pieter 12]

I wonder what’s the point of these threads?

Avoiding actually taking pictures.

 

[Will Deleon]

It's only been about a year or two since the IQ3 hit sub 10k. I'd imagine a little while longer for the IQ4!

 

[lookbook]

... I think they still have some "new" IQ4s for sale,
which were also supposed to leave with the xc ...
two new backs for sale, one of which is already old,
could be difficult *.

*this is of course speculation on my part!

and now the real speculators again!
: )

 

[Paul Spinnler]

Look - the competitor wave of new product is through. Fuji brought out their new thing, Hassy too. All depend on Sony. P1 has different economics in the sense that they can take 5k and pay that to Sony for a cutting edge chip and still sell something on top of that with hefty margins.

None of the new products really exceed the IQ4 in terms of ecosystem, raw features or even resolution.

Hassy and Fuji couldn't do that given how low their cameras are priced.

So if the historic pattern repeats itself, P1 just needs to sign an exclusivity for 54x40mm with a good price for Sony per chip so that Sony has no wish to enter the market as they make the money on the chip already and while they have exclusivity for a few years slowly the tech trickles down to 35mm and beyond.

So let's say we get an IQ5 now with 200 in 2024 / 2025

It means 80 megapixels in 2025, crop MF at 130 in 2025 / 2026 and P1 king of the hill for the next years.

 

[jng]

I wonder what’s the point of these threads?

It is a rumour I have from a large European dealer last week – let's recount the known facts and you judge:

1) Sony already developed a 3.45micron pixel pitch MF sensor which is 200 scaled up

http://thenewcamera.com/sony-120mp-medium-format-sensor-with-global-shutter/

Replace GS circuit with IQ4 high DR circuit and increase size to 54x40 and there's your 200 megapixel IQ5. Also tech cam glass will still easily resoilve it, hell, the Samsung galaxy phone resolves 200 megapixels with a bad lens, lol. The galaxy sensor is 0.6 microns ... ie still a sixth of an IQ5 in 3.45. That would be a Gigapixel back!

2) The dealer mentioned that he heard about 200 megapixels, but that supply chain issues were still a problem
3) Steve Hendrix mentioned that P1 visited them before end of the year showing off some new product which looked really interesting and encouraging
>> Rumoured are 90 Tilt, 150mm lens, a large XT and down the line a new back - these things I have heard via dealers
4) I've also heard from their Head of Sales that they are working on products, without further specifics (e.g. unclear whether lens, large XT, IQ5)
5) Their insta is alive again since a few weeks, they recently posted a reel celebrating 30 years of backs with an ominous "to be continued"
6) XC is apparently selling well in China, which bodes well for the investors to allocate capital to the division for new products if Sony samples a new sensor
7) Axcel's investment in P1 is now 5 years soon, so typically PE wants to sell after 5 year hold - before a sale you dress up the bride by cutting costs and launching new products -> XT was launched around the time of Axcel's investment

To me it sounds very logical that they wouldn't re-start insta, present new product to Steve, dealers mentioning exactly this megapixel number, wouldn't launch multiple new procucts this year on top pf all the XT tilt lenses released last year (32, 50, 70) if there wasn't something coming.

I believe supply chains ARE a BIG problem, but I also believe that an IQ5 is coming with a smaller pixel pitch as main driver to justify IQ5. With supply chain I mean that their launch of an IQ5 is largely dependent on when Sony is able to deliver a new product in mass production which atm is tricky with priorities, difficult supply chain situation for input materials, Sony's production capacities, etc.

But all the points above seem to indicate to me that P1 is alive and that they're essentially waiting for Sony to be ready to launch the next-gen.

Once that happens, all other systems will follow in the years after, as we've seen now. Hasselblad only now brought out a mini IQ4 with reduced features - 5 years into the life of the cutting edge IQ4 which is still unparalleled in many ways.

In fact, without distortion correction for Rodie glass, the CFV100c is not comparable at all against P1 backs for proper tech cam use. If you move from P1 to CFV100c you will miss some nice features, so best stick with IQ4 and hold it out.

200 megapixels should not be a problem for Sony ... it would be the next gen opening path for M12, SL4, S4 (crop MF at 130 megapixels), next gen Fuji and Hassy (130) - with P1 getting first dibs as usual for a premium.

This new tech would mean almost 80 megapixel 35mm with high DR too. We are at currently 60 megapixels, which is the frontier of the IQ4 gen Sony chips – P1 had access to them before anyone else back in 2018 already ... and only now we see widespread 60 megapixel 35mm and 100 megapixel crop MF.

It would seem that the short answer to both questions is: to engage in speculation based on rumours.

Perhaps such threads should be labeled as such, as the line between fact and fiction can get quite blurred by the nth post in the thread.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

You never have facts on new products prior to release except in the case of say lens roadmaps.

By that measure every forum post preceding any new product is speculation.

This is more than that. Its speculation based on sensible logic and increasing pointers that make sense as a whole - don't you see a bit of smoke?

You think P1 releases new XT lenses every few months to just drop a press release that they're quitting the back game?

Don't think so ... that would be really uncool.

 

[tcdeveau]

Maybe some of you enjoy it, but the talk of P1 pricing here gets pretty old and one factor that keeps me from visiting the forum as frequently as I once did.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

Well, a lowballer fishing for attention in a dried up newsflow environment wil always trigger a bit, but maybe you can suggest a nice topic to talk about?

All lenses are well-known (no new ones expected, except tilt variants for XT), there's some discussion around SK glass again, but by that measure it would take a long time to write about sth really news worthy given the pace innovation at which innovation happens in MF.

I mean how cool would be to discuss the user reviews of a new mirrorless P1 camera body ... unfortunately not happening.

 

[P. Chong]

I believe the backs will never drop to $10k. The photography market is too small for Phase One to care about us…that they do have some dealers who are wonderful and dedicated to photographers is a tribute to the dealers rather than P1. My local chap told me that industrial use is by far the biggest customers of the backs. And then the Repro guys. He gave the example that one single Google order is in the magnitude of some 100 units of IQ4 150.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

Yes, agree, the P1 financials I looked at recently in the other thread showed a healthy business with enough cashflow from industrial to invest actually in proper R&D - that was 2022, so 2023 was likely a good year for them.

IQ5 will come.