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Paul,A cutting edge IQ5 with 200 megapixels will be awesome.
I expect a 2025 IQ5, this year is XT etc.
P1 is going to release some killer products soon, new lenses, (hopefully large shift body with metadata), etc.
It would seem that the short answer to both questions is: to engage in speculation based on rumours.It is a rumour I have from a large European dealer last week – let's recount the known facts and you judge:
1) Sony already developed a 3.45micron pixel pitch MF sensor which is 200 scaled up
Replace GS circuit with IQ4 high DR circuit and increase size to 54x40 and there's your 200 megapixel IQ5. Also tech cam glass will still easily resoilve it, hell, the Samsung galaxy phone resolves 200 megapixels with a bad lens, lol. The galaxy sensor is 0.6 microns ... ie still a sixth of an IQ5 in 3.45. That would be a Gigapixel back!
2) The dealer mentioned that he heard about 200 megapixels, but that supply chain issues were still a problem
3) Steve Hendrix mentioned that P1 visited them before end of the year showing off some new product which looked really interesting and encouraging
>> Rumoured are 90 Tilt, 150mm lens, a large XT and down the line a new back - these things I have heard via dealers
4) I've also heard from their Head of Sales that they are working on products, without further specifics (e.g. unclear whether lens, large XT, IQ5)
5) Their insta is alive again since a few weeks, they recently posted a reel celebrating 30 years of backs with an ominous "to be continued"
6) XC is apparently selling well in China, which bodes well for the investors to allocate capital to the division for new products if Sony samples a new sensor
7) Axcel's investment in P1 is now 5 years soon, so typically PE wants to sell after 5 year hold - before a sale you dress up the bride by cutting costs and launching new products -> XT was launched around the time of Axcel's investment
To me it sounds very logical that they wouldn't re-start insta, present new product to Steve, dealers mentioning exactly this megapixel number, wouldn't launch multiple new procucts this year on top pf all the XT tilt lenses released last year (32, 50, 70) if there wasn't something coming.
I believe supply chains ARE a BIG problem, but I also believe that an IQ5 is coming with a smaller pixel pitch as main driver to justify IQ5. With supply chain I mean that their launch of an IQ5 is largely dependent on when Sony is able to deliver a new product in mass production which atm is tricky with priorities, difficult supply chain situation for input materials, Sony's production capacities, etc.
But all the points above seem to indicate to me that P1 is alive and that they're essentially waiting for Sony to be ready to launch the next-gen.
Once that happens, all other systems will follow in the years after, as we've seen now. Hasselblad only now brought out a mini IQ4 with reduced features - 5 years into the life of the cutting edge IQ4 which is still unparalleled in many ways.
In fact, without distortion correction for Rodie glass, the CFV100c is not comparable at all against P1 backs for proper tech cam use. If you move from P1 to CFV100c you will miss some nice features, so best stick with IQ4 and hold it out.
200 megapixels should not be a problem for Sony ... it would be the next gen opening path for M12, SL4, S4 (crop MF at 130 megapixels), next gen Fuji and Hassy (130) - with P1 getting first dibs as usual for a premium.
This new tech would mean almost 80 megapixel 35mm with high DR too. We are at currently 60 megapixels, which is the frontier of the IQ4 gen Sony chips – P1 had access to them before anyone else back in 2018 already ... and only now we see widespread 60 megapixel 35mm and 100 megapixel crop MF.