MFD 2025 – state of the industry and outlook

[Paul Spinnler]

Well there's the Pentax mono camera - no one talks about it so much, I feel; its 35mm though

 

[akaru]

A Pentax K-1 redux in mirrorless mono is the stuff of dreams. Over-engineered ugly little beautiful masterpiece of a camera that would be.

 

[Steve Hendrix]

Sensors with larger pixels do not have less noise when comparing the output at the same size. Sensor size is the main factor that determines the noise (and in-camera processing).

The size of the receptor is only one factor in what the end noise result is. There are other factors within the architecture. It adds to the challenge to minimizing noise, but it does not in and of itself mean that there will be more noise. Just looking at all the releases in the past 5-6 years,as each new model (from every company) adds pixel count without enlarging the surface area, the noise equation has remained generally similar, in some case even a reduction of the resulting noise signal.


Steve Hendrix/CI

 

[Paul Spinnler]

The size of the receptor is only one factor in what the end noise result is. There are other factors within the architecture. It adds to the challenge to minimizing noise, but it does not in and of itself mean that there will be more noise. Just looking at all the releases in the past 5-6 years,as each new model (from every company) adds pixel count without enlarging the surface area, the noise equation has remained generally similar, in some case even a reduction of the resulting noise signal.


Steve Hendrix/CI

Steve, what's your view on EVF and trade-ins? Do you see a possibility for an EVF solution to make P1's offering more "mirrorless era compatible" and do you think people can bank on trade-in value?

I'd hope that EVFs are on the P1 radar and that they do not touch the trade-in policy - 50k for the IQ5 is too much ...

 

[John Black]

Alrighty... let's go there. Most people in this thread won't know this stuff about monochrom sensors. Paul, you shoot monochrome sensors, so this rant below isn't for you. For non-monochrome sensor crowd -

There is no auto-focus, period. Red filters cause focus shift, so SLR styled cameras have very inaccurate focusing (massive back focus). Auto exposure is disaster. Red filters muck with the grey density measurements. The only way to use a monochrom sensor and do critical focusing is via LV or EVF. I'm in awe of people shooting film, either they are relying on IR distance scales or covering their butts with F16.

Which brings us to the Pentax... it's a SLR, so no AF if using filters. Its metering will be disaster. So it's wholly live view. And then it's APS-C... Kudos to Pentax for doing it, but it's not much of a solution. Though, for the uninitiated, it's a very cost attractive option to dip the toe in the pool.

For all intents and purposes there are three options - Leica M Monochroms (or their Q2), Phase One Achromatics or having a third party remove the CFA and then have a rather unique workflow (DNG2Monochrome). DNG2Monochrome brings other there limitations, but that's going off topic. I've owned 'em all. None are ideal.

Leica's don't have electronic first curtain shutter, so the M11 shutter experience stinks. If the M10-M had an electronic shutter option (as a shutter mode), I would stick those and call it done. The only really big downside with the Leica M's is rather dismal pool of shift lenses to choose from. If technical movements are high on the priority list, the M system isn't a good choice.

The holy grail is an EVF based monochrome camera. Since focus is based off sensor, focus shift is a non-issue. It'll be contrast detection AF. PDAF is null and void since the color filter is removed. Supposedly this is why there will be no Leica Q3 Monochrome. Mirrorless also means a real-time histo, so dialing metering pre-shot would be much easier.

The holy-holy grail is a IBIS EVF camera because the dark red filter will eat 3+ stops of light. The Polarizer will eat another 1.5 (ish) stops of light. I typical base ISO shot in golden hour at F11 is .5 seconds to 1 second. Shooting handheld is a no go. Even with IBIS it would be sketchy if keeping things at base ISO.

Back to you Paul, if Leica has a S4 Monochrom in the development cycle, that could be interesting to me. A color S4 with 247 MP isn't something I need or want. I really don't want 247 MP of anything. That will just bog down the computers and explode my storage requirements. Every Photoshop file will be PSB.

If I thought Sony would do a "monochrome" A7rV, that would more than suffice. While Sony seems to want to cover all the bases, monochrome doesn't seem to be in their plans. I doubt Fuji will do a monochrome, but Fuji seems (to me) a bit more daring. I'd happily pay $9999 for GFX 100 II Monochrome. With its 9.44M dot EVF, IBIS, high rez rear display, tilt screen... I'd be one happy camper. Their new shift lenses are big, but an easy solution.

So Paul, if you have contacts at Fuji, please work your magic

 

[Paul Spinnler]

There will be no 247 S4; that's only for the IQ5 and industry ...

On 247 per se; the argument from the sales people and marketing side will be around flexibility; essentially you walk around with a 40 HR and that's it. You can crop it to 70mm, 90mm and still have more than 100 MPX etc. I think they'll position it less around raw megapixel power, but will try to harness the benefits of the high res sensor for super sampling (quad sensor+ with 60 MPX) etc.

Re S4, that's still unknown whether it will be still the 100 MPX or if they are already sampling Sony's 811 gen crop sensor which has not been announced yet, so that would be an extrapolation. I am not certain about the release date because of this because if let's say a 180 MPX crop sensor becomes available by end of year then ofc it does not make sense to launch the S4 just before it. If that's still 3y off, with P1 having first dibs at the 811 gen for the next 18-24 months, then it makes sense to just launch with end-of-cycle 100 MPX Sony tech, I guess.

I wonder why Leica never did a Q3 Mono, I can only imagine sales besides the M11M weren't too good? Who knows

 

[ThdeDude]

On 247 per se; the argument from the sales people and marketing side will be around flexibility; essentially you walk around with a 40 HR and that's it. You can crop it to 70mm, 90mm and still have more than 100 MPX etc

Yes, I can see this argument be made with the XC40 or with the XC23 using the 247MP DB.

 

[Steve Hendrix]

Steve, what's your view on EVF and trade-ins? Do you see a possibility for an EVF solution to make P1's offering more "mirrorless era compatible" and do you think people can bank on trade-in value?

I'd hope that EVFs are on the P1 radar and that they do not touch the trade-in policy - 50k for the IQ5 is too much ...

Well you know I don't like to speculate. I don't know much and if I did, I wouldn't say anything here, so that makes me pretty useless.

They will have an upgrade policy, I am sure. And it will be expensive. I don't know how much.

Generally speaking - personally, I don't see how an EVF is in the cards for the XF or for an XT. I don't see how it positively would impact their sales much vs the investment, and it feels very much like going against the tide for their tendencies. So I would be surprised, maybe even shocked if something like that appeared, pleasantly so,. but still ... I do think there are other things they could do that are more compatible with the current of their stream that would be as much or more game changing than an EVF for an XF or XT. So I'll hope for those, whatever they will be. After a period of time spent on many sides of this industry you develop a sense of the nature of companies and their predilections and you learn to detect what seems to be enough signal and reasonable enough that things could be likely or not.

It's a great period of time to be in the market for a camera system. There have been so many advances and what the cameras can achieve today - from every manufacturer - is amazing. The tools in your hands have tremendous potential. With that said, concerning Phase One, I have had some discussions in the past 12 months with some clients about what they're doing, what is their status, what is their future, etc. Some seem concerned. But in looking back over the past year or so, they did release 3 new models in their product line, along with adding some tilt options to XT lens. They haven't been doing nothing. Two XC cameras, and, what to me was a significant development, the 150mm HO Lens.

It does seem quite possible they will have a new digital back product in 2025. There's a sensor. And based on the last digital back release, this new product may carry on through 2032 or ... longer? And in the year 2033, will they make any new models? Who knows? At that stage, who knows what the world will even be like? Today, almost 7 years after release, the IQ4 150 still in many respects is an industry leading product. For certain things, it remains unmatched. And so, whatever comes out in 2025 seems well positioned to push that capability even further into the future. Which has always been one of the strengths of Phase One, that yes, they are much more expensive than any other easily accessible camera system. But if you buy it for what it excels at, you have years and years of use without any worry about upgrades, alternatives, should you switch to something better, etc. There's a lot to be said for that.

I say enjoy the camera choices you have today. No camera company is perfect. But what you have to choose from today is wonderful. I am glad that Phase One will continue to make the great products that they do.

If this sounds a bit like an ad, I don't mean it to be. I just think sometimes we can get frustrated with companies and we can lose sight of how great things are today in the world of photography equipment.


Steve Hendrix/CI

 

[Paul Spinnler]

And it will be expensive.

You mean more than than the usual 25k? I am not sure its gonna fly if they go beyond on a trade-in basis.

 

[SrMphoto]

On 247 per se; the argument from the sales people and marketing side will be around flexibility; essentially you walk around with a 40 HR and that's it. You can crop it to 70mm, 90mm and still have more than 100 MPX etc

Yes, but if you crop, you do not have the DR of the entire sensor (noise, tonality), i.e., you could instead be shooting with an FF sensor.

 

[SrMphoto]

The size of the receptor is only one factor in what the end noise result is. There are other factors within the architecture. It adds to the challenge to minimizing noise, but it does not in and of itself mean that there will be more noise. Just looking at all the releases in the past 5-6 years,as each new model (from every company) adds pixel count without enlarging the surface area, the noise equation has remained generally similar, in some case even a reduction of the resulting noise signal.


Steve Hendrix/CI

Yes.
New technologies like dual conversion gain (X1D50c to X2D100c), and larger sensors matter for noise.

 

[John Black]

I wonder why Leica never did a Q3 Mono, I can only imagine sales besides the M11M weren't too good? Who knows

The explanation I got... using the Sony sensor, that means removing the CFA, thus nullifying the PDAF auto-focus. So, a monochrome Q3 would need a unique auto-focus set-up. There are much more technically minded people who say whether or not that narrative flies, but that was the story I got.

 

[vieri]

...

Today, almost 7 years after release, the IQ4 150 still in many respects is an industry leading product. For certain things, it remains unmatched. And so, whatever comes out in 2025 seems well positioned to push that capability even further into the future. Which has always been one of the strengths of Phase One, that yes, they are much more expensive than any other easily accessible camera system. But if you buy it for what it excels at, you have years and years of use without any worry about upgrades, alternatives, should you switch to something better, etc. There's a lot to be said for that.

...

Hey Steve,

well said. This is to me one of the main strengths of P1, and one of the main reasons for me to use, love and be an Ambassador for their products. Longevity, and unique features such as Frame Averaging, the IQ4 Achromatic and the option to make full use of tech cameras and movements in a better/easier way than any alternative on the market today, make it worth dealing with all the things we wished P1 did differently or better - keeping in mind that no cameras are perfect, they all have shortcomings and things that could be done better or differently, of course.

For reasons different than yours, I am also personally not interested in participating in the endless speculation game - all I am interested in, as a working photographer, is that still as things are today there is no better alternative for what P1 does best (in my case, the kind of landscape photography I do), and I am very much looking forward to what comes next.

Best regards,

Vieri

 

[Paul2660]

I just wonder if they will finally figure out how to stop the fogging on the LCD. What a total screw up at least on my IQ4. But the problem happen with my IQ260 also so whatever the issue is it’s been around for a while.
Paul.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

So everyone warming up for a cool 30k+ trade-in with your IQ4s?

 

[ThdeDude]

...
But in looking back over the past year or so, they did release 3 new models in their product line, along with adding some tilt options to XT lens. They haven't been doing nothing. Two XC cameras, and, what to me was a significant development, the 150mm HO Lens.
...

Steve Hendrix/CI

Yes, this is easy to forget.

HB stopped investing in their H-system long before it was officially discontinued. And I think so did Leica as to their S system (please correct me if incorrect).

 

[Paul Spinnler]

The S line has been finished after the release of the 100 2.0 and 24 3.5 which are the last-gen S lenses ... reason, typically for Leica, is besides a fabeld 300+ tele or a TS option which they indirectly covered via SK with 120, was that with the S they created lenses which were and still are so overspecced in terms of quality and resolution, optically, that sensors in the S till this day do not exploit the optics fully. From within Leica I was always told that they think the S vintage glass is good for at least 120-150 MPX on the 45x30mm format.

When using S lenses via a Pentax adapter on my IQ4 - just holding it into the bayonet - i see an extreme resolution which is like Rodie HR glass, especially the 24 3.5 is extremely sharp already wide open.

Similarly with the SL APO lenses, which will resolve at good contrast at the centre 200 megapixel sensors, the new S will have totally overspecced F2.5 APO lenses which will obliterate any current gen MF optic.

The vintage S lenses will be just another great choice for a bit less clinical look, so its worth gobbling them up if you see them in anticipation of the S4.

 

[Adammork]

well said. This is to me one of the main strengths of P1, and one of the main reasons for me to use, love and be an Ambassador for their products. Longevity, and unique features such as Frame Averaging, the IQ4 Achromatic and the option to make full use of tech cameras and movements in a better/easier way than any alternative on the market today, make it worth dealing with all the things we wished P1 did differently or better - keeping in mind that no cameras are perfect, they all have shortcomings and things that could be done better or differently, of course.

This is from an architectural photographers personal view - but the longevity, is really under pressure here in 2025, - 7 years ago, the gap between a PO solution and the others where significant, when talking images quality, today not so much... For my professional use I have 3 Alpa's and a full line of lenses from 23mm - 210mm and it's gathering mainly dust instead of light after the arrival of the Fuji t/s lenses, those combined with the latest Canon t/s gives me a very desirable quality - the Fuji 30mm and 110mm is performing better than the Rodenstocks on my Alpa's.

But most important, the movements and composition on the Fuji 100II is also so much, much easier to control with the movable EVF than the screen on the IQ back, especially from a lower viewpoint that I tend to use about the hight when using the waist level finder on a HB V.

So, as Paul is saying all the time, a tiltable EVF for the an upcoming IQ is very importen in 2025, in my opinion as well.

Besides the general ease of use, the fuji EVF and the 30mm t/s is the only reason why I'm using the Fuji today, since the camera itself is absolutely soulless in my view - but the camera is just working more or less flawless and the files it produces are extremely robust in post-processing.

So more mega-pixels will far from be enough for me to consider an upgrade - it's 2025 and the playing field is different than 7 years ago.

On a side note - for compensating using a soulless camera, I have been out this afternoon and enjoying some 4x5's on a Technikardan together with a "new" 300mm Apo-Symmar among others - it's a treatment that I can wholehearted recommend

/adam

 

[Paul Spinnler]

The target market of P1 at this stage is mainly amateurs and less pros were workflow and RoI matter.

I do hope they add more I/O; bluetooth and an open protocol for shutter release would be amazing (allows e.g. Alpa to produce a shutter grip) and hopefully create an EVF solution. A small hotshoe based thing with cabling or wireless like the M11 would be ok for me.

Let's see what's going to happen. But reading between the lines from Steve it looks like Phase will want to make a super bad trade-in deal meaning 30k+ at which point I am out as its just too much value loss and then I'll wait 1-2 years (its more a principle thing for me). They really need to be careful on this one.

25k - ok, that's still a lot, but mentally somehow the barrier based on history for me if I hand in my IQ4s.

 

[rdeloe]

and it's gathering mainly dust instead of light

That made me smile! What a line. It's perfect.

I try to minimize the number of lenses that are gathering dust instead of light, but there are a few...

Besides the general ease of use, the fuji EVF and the 30mm t/s is the only reason why I'm using the Fuji today, since the camera itself is absolutely soulless in my view - but the camera is just working more or less flawless and the files it produces are extremely robust in post-processing.

It's interesting how people ascribe "soul" to inanimate things. If I'm reading you correctly, I think you're measuring "pleasure in use" -- something I do understand well. I don't go out often without my F-Universalis outfit, but when I feel like just using a body and a lens, I'll take my Mamiya N lenses all the time instead of the only GF lens I have. I get great pleasure in use from the Mamiya lenses, but not from the GF lenses.

As for digital cameras, they are just machines to me. Some are more functional (for me) than others, but they're all just electronic boxes. Full disclosure: I haven't had the pleasure of holding a Hasselblad X camera. Maybe I'll go over to the soul side if that ever happens (although I expect I will not enjoy missing all the functionality I have on my GFX bodies that isn't available on the CFV 100C).